Minnesota Vikings Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Are the Vikings a Dark Horse?)

The Minnesota Vikings had a surprisingly strong season in 2024, finishing 14-3 on the year behind a resurgence year by Sam Darnold. In the offseason, they decided to move on from Sam Darnold and hand the reins over to second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

Unfortunately, the move didn't work out for them. Darnold led the Seattle Seahawks to the franchise's second Super Bowl win in franchise history, and the Vikings went 9-8 with McCarthy looking average at best.

The Vikings still have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, and they brought in Kyler Murray to battle with McCarthy for the starting role. Will they compete in the NFC North? Let's dive into their projected win total for the upcoming season.

2026 Minnesota Vikings Projected Win Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 8.5 Wins (-110)
UNDER 8.5 Wins (-110)

The Vikings have a win total set at 8.5, with both sides having even odds, giving them the same chance of going 9-8 or better, or 8-9 or worse. They finished 9-8 last season after winning their five final games of the year.

The biggest question mark for this team is their quarterback. Murray failed to live up to expectations in his final two seasons in Arizona, but a fresh start in Minnesota, playing for a quarterback-friendly coach and one of the best wide receivers in the game in Justin Jefferson, may be exactly what he needs to revamp his career. Meanwhile, there's a chance that McCarthy takes a step forward in his development and significantly improves compared to last year.

Brian Flores continues to scheme up one of the best defenses in the NFL, and the team spent significant draft stock in further improving the unit. If nothing else, they'll be able to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

The Vikings have to fix their turnover problem from a year ago if they want to return to the postseason. They were 28th in turnover differential last year at -0.5 per game. If whoever starts at quarterback can limit the turnovers, this could be a sneakily dangerous team in the NFC.

I'll bet the OVER on their win total.

Pick: OVER 8.5 Wins (-110) via DraftKings

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