Mississippi State vs. Texas Predictions, Best Bets and Picks for College Football Week 9

Just a few short weeks ago, it looked like this weekend's game between Mississippi State and Texas was going to be a marquee matchup. Unfortunately, the Bulldogs have lost three straight games, and their star quarterback, Kamario Taylor, is out for the season.

That's good news for Texas, which can ill afford another loss if they want any hope of making the College Football Playoff.

If you're looking to bet on this SEC matchup, you're in the right place. Let's look at my favorite plays for Saturday's game.

Mississippi State vs. Texas Best Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Texas -20.5 (-105) vs. Mississippi State
Arch Manning 230+ Passing Yards (+106)
Jermaine Bishop Anytime Touchdown (+380)

Texas -20.5 (-105) vs. Mississippi State

Mississippi State has little to no chance to hang with the Longhorns in this game. Moving the ball against a stout Texas defense that leads the country in opponent-adjusted EPA per play was going to be hard enough; now, with a new quarterback taking over, the Bulldogs are going to struggle to put many points on the board.

The Longhorns' offense has struggled at times, but the Mississippi State defense ranks just 105th in the country in opponent success rate.

I'll lay the points with the Longhorns in this one.

Arch Manning 230+ Passing Yards (+106)

The Mississippi State secondary has been bad this season. Entering this week, the Bulldogs rank 109th in opponent EPA per pass and 114th in opponent pass success rate. There's no denying that Arch Manning has had a rough first half of his season, but a year ago he caught fire in the back half of the 2025 campaign, so the same could be possible in 2026. We also have to consider the fact that he has had to face some elite defenses so far this season.

I'm going to bank on Manning having a breakout performance on Saturday.

Jermaine Bishop Anytime Touchdown (+380)

If you want a bit of a dark-horse touchdown scorer, consider Texas wide receiver Jermaine Bishop Jr. He is third on the team in receptions with 13, and he has already found the end zone once. Now that Texas gets to face a bad Mississippi State secondary, there will be plenty of opportunities for Longhorn receivers to produce. He's worth a look at +380.

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