Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 1

Mike Elko and the Texas A&M Aggies have a sour taste in their mouth after a 10-3 loss in last year’s College Football Playoff to Miami, and they’re looking to get back in the final field in the 2026 season.

The No. 8 team in the country, Texas A&M opens the season at home against the Missouri State Bears, who have a new head coach after a 7-6 season in 2025. The Bears lost three games in a row to end 2025, and they hired former SMU offensive coordinator Casey Woods to take over the program.

This is a tough way for Woods to begin his career with the Bears, as the Aggies had a top-12 team in EPA/Play on both offense and defense last season.

As a result, the Aggies are massive favorites (as expected) at home in this Week 1 battle, But, can they cover?

Let’s dive right into the latest lines from the best college football betting sites, a prediction and a player to watch for Saturday’s contest.

Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Missouri State +40.5 (-105)
Texas A&M -40.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Missouri State: N/A
Texas A&M: N/A

Total

53.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Missouri State vs. Texas A&M How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Sept. 5
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Kyle Field
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Missouri State record: 0-0
Texas A&M record: 0-0

Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Key Player to Watch

Marcel Reed, Quarterback, Texas A&M

A fringe Heisman candidate last season, Reed threw for 3,169 yards, 25 scores and 12 picks in 2025 while rushing for 493 yards and six scores.

The junior took a major step forward as a passer in his second season getting starter reps, and the Aggies are hoping he’ll be in the Heisman conversation again with the team starting the year as the No. 8 squad in the country.

Reed should have no problem dicing up a Missouri State defense that was 115th in EPA/Play last season and 88th in defensive success rate.

If there’s one area to watch, it’ll be how Reed takes care of the football. He threw six picks in the final four games of the 2025 season, including two in the College Football Playoff loss to Miami.

Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick

Missouri State played two games against Power Four opponents last season, losing by 60 to USC (which had an elite offense) and 18 to SMU.

There’s no doubt that the Bears have to be better on offense to compete with Texas A&M in this game, but the Aggies won just one game by more than 40 points (against Samford) in the 2025 season. For as elite as this team was on both sides of the ball, Texas A&M didn’t score in bunches during the 2025 season, partly due to the fact that it was 136th in the country in net field position.

I don’t think this will be a close matchup, but a new head coach and offensive system should help a Bears team that was 92nd in EPA/Play on offense last year despite being 47th in EPA/Pass.

Missouri State also covered the spread in seven of 13 games while the Aggies are just 8-18 against the number since Mike Elko took over as the team’s head coach.

I’ll take the points in Week 1, as the Aggies have zero incentive to run up the score and keep their starters on the field for all four quarters.

Pick: Missouri State +40.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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