Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Braves-Phillies, Reds-Dodgers, Blue Jays and Dylan Cease)

What better way to close out a holiday weekend than a bunch of afternoon baseball action?

Just a few weeks remain in the regular season ahead of the playoffs, and there are a ton of teams vying for wild card spots or a division title.

Since Monday is a holiday, there are a ton of afternoon games to dive into, including a crucial NL East battle between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves.

I’m eyeing a winner in that matchup as one of three best bets for Monday’s action.

Plus, there are two All-Star right-handers that I’m getting behind in the late games, including one that could lead his team to a surprise upset.

Let’s dive right into the picks for Monday’s action, with odds complete from the best betting sites.

MLB Best Bets for Monday, Sept. 7

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-168) vs. Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-171) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Toronto Blue Jays-Athletics First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-125)

Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-168) vs. Atlanta Braves

The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to salvage a split against the Atlanta Braves after blowing a lead on Sunday to push them to five games back in the NL East.

Luckily, Philly has All-Star lefty Jesus Luzardo (3.02 ERA) on the mound for Monday’s matchup. He’ll take on righty Grant Holmes (3.62 ERA), who has some shaky advanced numbers for the Braves, ranking in the 23rd percentile in expected ERA and the 31st percentile in expected batting average against.

The Braves are in the driver’s seat to win this division, but I’m buying Philly at home on Monday with Luzardo on the mound. The Phils are 20-8 in his 28 appearances this season, and the lefty sits in the 91st percentile in expected ERA and 85th in expected BAA.

He has a 1.32 ERA since Aug. 1, leading the Phils to a perfect 6-0 record in those starts.

Meanwhile, Holmes has seen his Fielding Independent Pitching jump to 4.71 this season. The Braves are 19-8 when he’s on the mound, but the righty has not been nearly as effective as Luzardo, ranking in the 23rd percentile in strikeout percentage, the 12th percentile in hard-hit percentage and posting several other shaky metrics.

I think Philly is able to come away with a split on Monday afternoon.

Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-171) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers have won four games in a row, taking a 10.5-game lead atop the NL West into this series opener with the Cincinnati Reds.

The Reds are 6.5 games out of a playoff spot in the NL, but they’ve won seven of their last 10 games and have ace Chase Burns on the mound on Monday night.

L.A. has yet to announce a starter for this game, which should give the Reds (+129 underdogs) a small edge to hang around with Burns on the bump.

There’s been one easy way to fade L.A. this season, and that’s been taking the opponent to cover the run line when the Dodgers are home favorites. L.A. is just 21-46 on the run line as a home favorite, covering in under 32 percent of its games.

The Reds have dominated in Burns’ starts this season, winning 19 of his 26 outings, and I think they’re live for an upset on Monday night.

Burns enters this outing with an expected ERA in the 82nd percentile and an actual ERA of 2.79. Even though the Dodgers are clearly the better team, I think there’s value in getting a one-run cushion with the Reds’ ace on the mound.

Toronto Blue Jays-Athletics First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-125)

The Toronto Blue Jays are just one game out of a playoff spot in the American League, and they have Cy Young candidate Dylan Cease on the mound for Monday’s series opener with the Athletics.

The Athletics are well out of the playoff mix in the American League, and they’ve lost multiple key offensive players, including All-Star Nick Kurtz, for the rest of the season. That has contributed to the team falling into the bottom 10 in the league in Weighted Runs Created Plus, even though it is seventh in runs scored and third in OPS over the last 30 days.

Toronto has struggled on offense all season long, ranking 27th in OPS and 24th in wRC+, yet it still has clawed its way back into the playoff picture.

Cease has been a big reason why, leading the team to an 8-3 record in his 11 starts since July 1, posting a 1.36 ERA over the stretch. The star right-hander has not allowed more than three earned runs in a single outing since July 1.

He’ll take on lefty Jacob Lopez (4.71 ERA) in this series opener, but Lopez’s advanced numbers are way better than his actual ERA suggests. He ranks in the 79th percentile in expected ERA and the 86th percentile expected in batting average against this season.

Both of these pitchers are capable of keeping these offenses in check, though there is some risk with an UNDER bet since the Athletics have the worst bullpen ERA (5.45) in MLB. So, I’ll go UNDER in the first five frames when I expect both starters to still be on the mound.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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