Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Mets vs. Yankees, Phillies vs. Braves, Padres vs. Giants)

Week 1 of the NFL season may be here, but that doesn’t mean that the home stretch of the MLB regular season takes a complete back seat.

There is still a ton to be decided in the playoff and division races, and I’m eyeing a few teams that are in that mix on Sunday, including the New York Yankees in their series finale with the New York Mets.

The Yanks aren’t the only team I’m looking to bet on, as the Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks could be interesting plays at home as they look to lock up playoff spots (Atlanta with an NL East division win and Arizona in the NL wild card).

Plus, I have a play for the Sunday Night Baseball showdown between the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants.

Here’s a look at the latest odds and analysis behind all four picks for Sunday’s MLB action.

MLB Best Bets for Sunday, Sept. 13

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

New York Yankees Moneyline (-186) vs. New York Mets
Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-133) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres-San Francisco Giants First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-160)
Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (-145) vs. Texas Rangers

New York Yankees Moneyline (-186) vs. New York Mets

The Yankees dropped Game 2 of this series on Saturday, but they’re heavily favored at home with AL Cy Young candidate Cam Schlittler on the bump.

The right-hander has been lights out in the 2026 season, ranking in the 92nd percentile in expected ERA and the 85th percentile in expected BAA. Schlittler has a 2.01 ERA in the 2026 season, allowing one or fewer runs in each of his last six starts.

He’ll take on Mets righty Christian Scott (3.81 ERA), who has led his team to a 15-6 record in 21 appearances this season. I have a worry with Scott’s ability to induce ground balls (ninth percentile in the league in ground-ball rate) at a home-run friendly park like Yankee Stadium.

Plus, the Yankees are 19-11 with Schlittler on the mound, so I don’t want to read too much into Scott’s record for this bet.

The Yankees are ahead of the Mets in several offensive categories, including OPS, runs scored and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). The Mets are in the bottom 10 of the league in each of those statistics.

I’ll trust Schlittler – who is the better starter – to lead the Yankees to a win in the series finale.

Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-133) vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The Braves have opened up a six-game lead over the Phillies with three wins in a row, and they’re eyeing a sweep of their division rival on Sunday afternoon.

Grant Holmes (3.46 ERA) will get the start for the Braves, who are 19-9 when he’s on the mound this season. Holmes has been really good as of late, tossing five games without a run allowed since Aug. 1, posting a 2.27 ERA over that seven-start stretch.

The Phillies were shut down through six innings by Holmes in his last start, picking up just three hits.

Meanwhile, right-hander Andrew Painter is back on the bump for the Phils after allowing 10 hits and five runs in his last outing against Houston. Painter has a 5.71 ERA this season, and the Phils have won just seven of his 22 outings.

Atlanta has 14 hits and eight runs against Painter in two starts (9.2 innings) this year – both of which ended with Braves wins.

Since Holmes has pitched so well as of late, I’m going to take the Braves to win at home, where they are 25 games over .500 in 2026.

San Diego Padres-San Francisco Giants First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-160)

The Padres are 1.5 games up on the Diamondbacks for the final wild card spot in the National League, and they find themselves as road favorites against the Giants on Sunday night.

Nick Pivetta (3.43 ERA) returned to the San Diego rotation earlier this month after missing a ton of time with an elbow injury, and he tossed five innings of two-hit ball in a win over Washington.

Now, he takes on Giants ace Logan Webb, who bounced back from an awful start to September (nine runs allowed against Pittsburgh) with six innings of one-run ball in a win over St. Louis. Webb has a 4.10 ERA this season, but the Giants haven’t gotten him a ton of run support (under five runs per game) in 2026.

I think this could be a low-scoring matchup in the first five frames, especially since Pivetta was sharp in his first start back in the big leagues.

These teams are 24th (San Fran) and 22nd (San Diego) in runs scored this season, and the Padres are 22nd in that stat still over the last 30 days despite making a playoff push.

I’ll bet on these two starters to keep these offenses in check early.

Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (-145) vs. Texas Rangers

Both the Diamondbacks and Rangers need every win they can get down the stretch of the regular season.

Arizona is 1.5 games back of the Padres despite winning six of its last 10, while Texas is two games out of the final wild card spot (currently held by Cleveland) in the American League.

Cal Quantrill (2.89 ERA) is getting the start for Texas, but I’m looking to fade him against Eduardo Rodriguez (2.55 ERA).

Both of these starters have some shaky advanced numbers this season, which means this game could come down to offense:

Cal Quantrill vs. Eduardo Rodriguez Stat Comparison

Expected ERA

Quantrill: 3.91 (56th percentile)
Rodriguez: 4.34 (36th percentile)

Fielding Independent Pitching

Quantrill: 4.00
Rodriguez: 3.76

Expected Batting Average Against

Quantrill: .242 (46th percentile)
Rodriguez: .255 (27th percentile)

The Rangers are a much better team in Weighted Runs Created Plus this season (sixth), and they have the fourth-best batting average in MLB against lefties. Yet, this team has been awful on the road (33-44).

And, the D-Backs are a shocking 22-7 when E-Rod is on the mound. I’ll side with Arizona as a slight favorite at home in this series finale.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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