Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Phillies vs. Braves, Drake Baldwin in Game 3)

What better way to start October than with a winner-take-all MLB playoff game?

The Philadelphia Phillies kept their season alive on Wednesday afternoon, rallying from a 3-1 deficit behind homers from Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm to win in extra innings against the Atlanta Braves.

That sets up a win-or-go-home scenario for both of these teams on Thursday night.

Neither team has officially announced a starter for this game, but this is a clear scenario where each team will have all hands on deck in an attempt to reach the NLDS.

According to long-time Phillies reporter Jim Salisbury, the Phillies are expected to start Aaron Nola against Atlanta opener Ray Kerr.

Hearing Phillies will start Aaron Nola tonight vs. Braves opener Ray Kerr, a lefty. Always subject to change but that’s the plan as of this AM.
— Jim Salisbury (@JimSalisbury215) October 1, 2026

Braves beat writer Mark Bowman speculated that the Braves will use starter Grant Holmes as the “bulk” option behind Kerr on Thursday while the Phillies will use a combination of ace Zack Wheeler (on short rest) and Nola. Wheeler last pitched on Sunday in a win to help the Phillies clinch the final wild card spot in the National League.

Grant Holmes says he hasn’t been told whether he’ll start tomorrow. I’d still guess they’ll go with Kerr as an opener and Holmes as the bulk guy. Phillies could use some combo of Nola and Wheeler.
— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) September 30, 2026

I’d expect every pitcher that enters Thursday’s game to have a short leash, especially on the Atlanta side. The Braves had the fourth-best bullpen ERA during the regular season, so they aren’t going to let one pitcher blow up in this game.

There’s a ton of ways to bet on this matchup, but without any pitching props available, I’m eyeing a pick for the winner and a hitter prop in Game 3 of this NL wild card matchup.

MLB Best Bets for Thursday, Oct. 1

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-118) vs. Atlanta Braves
Drake Baldwin OVER 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs (-108)

Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-118) vs. Atlanta Braves

There’s certainly an argument to be made for the Braves, who went 23 games over .500 at home in the regular season, but I lean with the Phillies in Game 3.

If Wheeler is able to pitch on short rest in any capacity, he’ll be by far the best pitcher in this game and had a massive finish to the regular season. Wheeler had a 1.71 ERA in September, lowering his season-long ERA to 3.00. He may not be able to give the Phils a ton of length, but it should help ease the pressure on their bullpen.

Nola has pitched in a ton of big games in his career, and I don’t want to downplay his two solid starts against Atlanta earlier this month. In two outings, Nola allowed just 10 hits and three earned runs across 13.1 innings of work.

The Braves have only used Kerr as an opener once this season, and Holmes had some very shaky advanced numbers in the regular season, ranking in the 12th percentile in expected ERA and the 18th percentile in expected BAA.

The Atlanta bullpen has been taxed in this series, pitching Didier Fuentes, Dylan Lee and Rasiel Iglesias in back-to-back days. That’s not nothing. Can the Atlanta ‘pen hold up after blowing Game 2?

I’d much rather take the Phillies and their proven veteran starters in a winner-take-all game, especially after they showed they can power themselves to a win on Wednesday.

Drake Baldwin OVER 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs (-108)

If Nola ends up getting the start, it’s a good sign for Braves catcher/designated hitter Drake Baldwin.

Baldwin picked up two hits and a run batted in on Wednesday, and he’s fared extremely well against Nola in his career.

The 25-year-old is 5-for-11 (.455) against Nola in his career, with a .955 OPS. He’s driven in one run against the Phillies veteran, and Nola has struggled quite a bit with the long ball this season, allowing 37 in 33 starts during the regular season.

A homer would immediately hit this prop for Baldwin, and he’s coming off a strong showing on Wednesday. During the regular season, the Braves star hit .284 overall and .307 against right-handed pitching.

Baldwin also entered the playoffs on a hot streak, batting .360 with two home runs, five runs batted in and a .951 OPS over the final two weeks (12 games). He’s a pretty interesting bet with this prop set at -108 on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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