Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Red Sox vs. Yankees, Hunter Brown, Phillies vs. Braves)

The MLB Playoffs started with a bang on Tuesday, as three home teams took the respective Game 1 matchups while causing a massive shakeup in the odds to win the World Series.

Now, everyone has a quick turnaround with Game 2 action set for the final day of September, as Boston, Philly, Houston and the Chicago Cubs look to keep their seasons alive:

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves – Atlanta leads 1-0
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros – Chicago leads 1-0
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees – New York leads 1-0
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres – San Diego leads 1-0

I’m targeting three of these games in today’s edition of Walk-Off Wagers – our daily MLB Best Bets column at SI Betting – including a pick for the rivalry matchup between New York and Boston.

MLB Best Bets for Playoff Games on Sept. 30

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

New York Yankees Moneyline (-137) vs. Boston Red Sox
Hunter Brown 6+ Strikeouts (-176)
Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-106) vs. Philadelphia Phillies

New York Yankees Moneyline (-137) vs. Boston Red Sox

These teams were pretty even during the regular season – New York won seven of the 13 meetings – but Tuesday’s wild card matchup was as lopsided as they come. The Yankees had nine runs, 12 hits and only allowed three hits in a shutout win.

Sure, the Yankees won’t have the AL Cy Young favorite (Cam Schlittler) on the mound again, but Boston couldn’t get anything going at the dish, striking out 11 times. To make matters worse, Roman Anthony (hand) left the game with an injury.

Boston’s offense fell apart down the stretch of the regular season, and that continued into this playoff matchup. The Sox were 29th in batting average and 28th in OPS over the last 30 days of the regular season, and now they have to face Max Fried and basically a fresh Yankee bullpen in Game 2.

In Game 1, the Yankees showed no signs of slowing down, even with Aaron Judge out, with players across the lineup contributing. They also forced the Sox to use a ton of their bullpen after Payton Tolle lasted just 4.2 innings in Game 1.

Sonny Gray (2.72 ERA) gave New York problems in the regular season, but his advanced numbers (60th percentile expected ERA, 39th percent in expected BAA) are far worse than Fried’s in 2026. The two starters may end up pretty even in the early innings, but Fried (98th percentile in expected ERA, 90th percentile in expected BAA) was by far the better pitcher in the regular season when it comes to his advanced stats.

That bodes well for the Yanks, who only used one high-leverage arm (Paul Blackburn) to close out the series opener.

I love New York’s lineup against right-handed pitching, as it’ll get Luis Garcia Jr. back in to protect Ben Rice. I’ll take the home team to finish this rivalry matchup in two games.

Hunter Brown 6+ Strikeouts (-176)

Houston Astros right-hander Hunter Brown had a strong regular season in 202 starts, ranking in the 81st percentile in expected ERA and the 90th percentile in expected batting average against.

Plus, Brown ranks in the 83rd percentile in strikeout percentage and the 61st percentile in whiff percentage amongst MLB pitchers. That puts him in a great spot against a Chicago offense that has struggled with the strikeout in 2026.

The one-time All-Star punched out exactly seven batters in both of his starts against Chicago (he’s +110 to do that again today), so I don’t mind moving his K’s prop down to 6+ in Game 2.

Chicago averaged 9.21 strikeouts per game this season, and it had the fifth-worst strikeout rate in MLB during the regular season. Brown cleared this prop in half of his starts (10-of-20) in the 2026 regular season, and I expect him to shut down this offense for the third time this season on Wednesday.

Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-106) vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Can Atlanta complete a sweep in this series?

The Braves survived Game 1 with Austin Riley’s three-run homer in the eighth inning, and I think they’re in a great spot to take this series on Wednesday afternoon.

Braves starter Tyler Mahle was terrific after being acquired at the deadline, allowing two or fewer earned runs in eight of his nine outings. He lowered his ERA from 4.83 to 3.99 and his expected ERA fell to 3.95.

Meanwhile, Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sanchez’s worst month of the season came in September (5.12 ERA), and the southpaw hasn’t exactly shut down the Braves in his starts against them. Atlanta has been able to come away with six runs (three earned) against the two-time All-Star, and Sanchez finished the regular season with an expected ERA for 3.39 and an expected batting average against in the 55th percentile.

While the Phillies are favored in this game, I have a hard time betting on them after they backed into the playoffs and had to use ace Zack Wheeler to secure a spot.

Atlanta didn’t have to tax its bullpen too much on Tuesday with Chris Sale going 6.1 innings, and I’m not sold on the Phillies having a huge advantage with Sanchez on the mound. The Braves were 23 games over .500 at home in the regular season, and I think they add to that mark in Game 2.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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