Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Yankees-Red Sox, Reds-Rays, Braves-Nationals)

Tuesday’s Major League Baseball action features a ton of great matchups – and a few series openers – including Game 1 of the 2026 season between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.

One of baseball’s greatest rivalries, these teams met in the playoffs in the 2025 season, with New York winning in the wild card to advance to the ALDS. Boston has gotten off to a slow start in 2026, but it is coming off a win on Marathon Monday over the Detroit Tigers.

That’s not the only game to consider betting on in this 15-game slate, though, as I’m eyeing a young right-hander for the Cincinnati Reds and one of the hottest teams in baseball to pick up wins on Tuesday night.

Here’s a look at the odds and analysis behind each of today’s MLB Best Bets!

MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, April 21

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (-112) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox First 5 Innings Moneyline (-125) vs. New York Yankees
Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-143) vs. Washington Nationals

Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (-112) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

The Cincinnati Reds are on fire right now, winning four games in a row and seven of their last 10 to move into first place in the NL Central standings.

The most impressive part of Cincy’s start to the season may be its road record, as the Reds are 9-2 on the road and looking to win Game 2 of their early-week series with the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday.

This game is basically set as a pick’em – Cincy is a slight favorite – and that makes this a perfect time to jump on the Reds with Chase Burns making his fifth start of the year. The hard-throwing right-hander has given up one or fewer runs in three of his outings this season, posting a 2.42 ERA.

While Cincy is just 2-2 in Burns’ starts, the youngster has some impressive advanced numbers, ranking in the 64th percentile in expected batting average against and the 82nd percentile in whiff percentage while posting an expected ERA of 3.86.

He has much better advanced numbers than Tampa Bay starter Steven Matz, who is in the 26th percentile in expected batting average against and the 38th percentile in expected ERA (4.24) this season.

Matz has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his April starts, but the bullpen behind him is extremely shaky. The Rays have the sixth-worst bullpen ERA (5.28) in MLB while the Reds are No. 1 in that ranking (2.23 ERA).

Since Burns can easily match Matz in the first few frames, I trust the Reds to win this game in the later innings. Tampa Bay is 12-10 to start this season, but it has a minus-11 run differential, which could be a sign that it’s going to regress in the coming weeks and months.

Boston Red Sox First 5 Innings Moneyline (-125) vs. New York Yankees

Boston’s off to a slow start in the 2026 season, but it may have an early advantage on the mound against the Yankees on Tuesday.

Connelly Early has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his four starts this season, posting a 2.29 ERA. He’s coming off his best start of the season, tossing six innings of two-hit ball in a win over the Minnesota Twins.

Now, he takes on Luis Gil, who has struggled in limited outings for New York in 2026. Gil has a 7.00 ERA across two starts, allowing eight hits, seven runs and five walks in just 9.0 innings of work. He ranks in the 12th percentile in MLB in expected ERA (6.40), the 12th percentile in hard-hit percentage and the 13th percentile in barrel percentage.

Even though Early’s advanced numbers aren’t great – he’s in just the 24th percentile in expected ERA – the Yankees are just 17th in OPS and 28th in batting average against left-handed pitchers this season.

I wouldn't be shocked if Boston is leading this game before the bullpens take over on Tuesday.

Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-143) vs. Washington Nationals

Can anyone stop the Atlanta Braves?

After sweeping the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend, Atlanta opened this week’s series with the Washington Nationals with a 9-4 victory, extending its winning streak to six games.

I’ve bet on the Braves in back-to-back games, and I’m going back to the well on Tuesday night with Reynaldo Lopez on the mound against Foster Griffin.

Atlanta is 4-0 in Lopez’s outings so far this season, and the righty has a 2.18 ERA, allowing three or fewer earned runs in each of his starts. Lopez also has the No. 2 bullpen in MLB (2.61 ERA) backing him up, which isn’t something that the Nationals and Foster Griffin can say.

Griffin, who has a 3.05 ERA in the 2026 season, is coming off his worst outing of the campaign, allowing eight hits and four runs in an extra-innings win over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Griffin has some shaky advanced numbers in 2026, ranking in the 43rd percentile in expected ERA, the 40th percentile in expected batting average against and the 23rd percentile in barrel percentage.

That is an issue for the lefty against a Braves team that is No. 5 in OPS and No. 4 in batting average against left-handed pitching in 2026. The Nationals also have a subpar bullpen, ranking 27th in the league in bullpen ERA (5.57).

I’ll trust the Braves to win a seventh game in a row, as they’ve put together an impressive 8-3 mark on the road in 2026.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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