MLB Playoff Odds for Every Team: Red Sox Surging During Win Streak; Guardians Favored Over White Sox

The 2026 MLB All-Star break is in the rearview, and the race for the playoffs is on.

There are a few teams that seem to have a playoff spot locked up – especially in the eyes of oddsmakers – as the Milwaukee Brewers (-20000 to make the playoffs) and Los Angeles Dodgers (-20000) are well ahead of the pack in the National League at this point in the season.

However, there’s still plenty of time for a team to go on a run, and the Boston Red Sox are proving that right now. After a sluggish start to 2026, Boston is now over .500 and has won 13 games in a row to take control of the No. 3 wild card spot in the American League.

The Sox are favored to make the playoffs, and their playoff odds at FanGraphs have moved all the way up to 58.6 percent.

Boston isn’t the only team that is hoping that a run in the second half will help it make the playoffs. The Baltimore Orioles, winners of seven straight, are in a similar boat while three teams in the National League (St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Miami) are all tied for the final wild card spot.

That has led to some interesting playoff odds, including a few spots where a division leader has worse odds than a wild card team to be in the final playoff field.

Here’s a complete breakdown ahead of Monday’s MLB action.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

American League MLB Playoff Odds

Division Leaders

Tampa Bay Rays: -1400
Chicago White Sox: -135
Texas Rangers: -165

Every division in the American League is tight at this point in the 2026 season. Tampa Bay has a 1.5-game lead on the New York Yankees after losing five in a row, but it has over a 92 percent chance to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs.

Meanwhile, Texas (0.5 games up on Seattle) and Chicago (one game up on Cleveland) both have worse odds to make the postseason than the teams right behind them in the standings. The Mariners (-245) and Cleveland Guardians (-200) are both considered more likely to make the playoffs in both the betting odds and FanGraphs’ odds.

Wild Card Hunt

New York Yankees: -3000
Seattle Mariners: -245
Cleveland Guardians: -200
Boston Red Sox: -145
Baltimore Orioles: +220
Minnesota Twins: +300
Detroit Tigers: +300
Toronto Blue Jays: +350
Houston Astros: +400
Athletics: +2200
Los Angeles Angels: +3000
Kansas City Royals: +3000

The Yankees (-3000) have the best playoff odds in the American League despite the fact that they’re in second place in the AL East. The potential return of Aaron Judge and others should bolster the Yankees over the final months of the regular season, but a brutal stretch in June and July has dropped the team behind Tampa Bay in the division.

Boston is the team to watch here, as it’s now -145 to make the playoffs, which translates to an implied probability of 59.18 percent. While the Sox have been awesome during this 13-game winning streak, they also were one of the worst teams in baseball for multiple months. So, it’s possible they regress back to the mean some time in the next few months.

On the bright side, Boston’s run differential is now plus-45, which is behind only New York in the American League.

National League MLB Playoff Odds

Division Leaders

Atlanta Braves: -2000
Milwaukee Brewers: -20000
Los Angeles Dodgers: -20000

The National League division leaders are in a much better position than those in the American League to make the playoffs.

Atlanta has a three-game cushion on the Philadelphia Phillies and a six-game cushion on the final wild card spot in the NL entering Monday’s action. While the Braves have the smallest division lead in the NL, they also already have 57 wins and a plus-108 run differential.

The Dodgers, on the other hand, are 11.5 games up on the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West and have the best record in MLB (63-37). The Brewers (62-37) have a six-game cushion over the Chicago Cubs and a 10.5-game lead on the final wild card spot in the NL.

It would take a major collapse for one of these three teams to fail to make the playoffs.

Wild Card Hunt

Philadelphia Phillies: -1000
Chicago Cubs: -575
Pittsburgh Pirates: +180
Arizona Diamondbacks: +200
Miami Marlins: +300
St. Louis Cardinals: +330
San Diego Padres: +400
Washington Nationals: +1200
Cincinnati Reds: +2200
San Francisco Giants: +2800
New York Mets: +2800
Colorado Rockies: +5000

The Philadelphia Phillies’ turnaround this season has been pretty crazy. They got off to an awful start and fired manager Rob Thomson, but the team has since turned things around. After a 9-19 start, the Phillies have gone 46-26 since, putting them in position to compete for the NL East title.

Since the NL wild card race is so tight, only the Phillies and Chicago Cubs are favored to make the postseason. From there, just 2.5 games separate six teams for the final wild card spot.

So, there could be some value there with teams like San Diego (+400) and St. Louis (+330) set at plus money to make the playoffs. Still, those teams could end up selling at the trade deadline, which would alter this market quite a bit.

According to FanGraphs, the Pittsburgh Pirates (+180) have the best chance to earn the third wild card spot, sitting at 48.6% in their odds to make the postseason.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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