Naomi Osaka vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open Fourth Round

Round 4 of the 2026 U.S. Open has some massive matchups on Labor Day, including two of the top ranked players in the tournament facing off.

Two-time U.S. Open champion Naomi Osaka (No. 13 in this tournament) takes on No. 2-ranked Elena Rybakina, who won the Australian Open to begin 2026. Both of these players have Grand Slam titles to their name, but Osaka has been much more successful in the U.S. Open, reaching the semifinals for the third time in her career in 2025.

Despite that, she’s an underdog in this fourth-round match.

This is a battle between two players that are elite on hard courts. Rybakina is 32-7 on hard courts in 2026, and she won the Australian Open (on a hard surface) earlier this year.

Meanwhile, Osaka is 13-6 on hard courts this year and has won all four of her Grand Slam titles (two Australian Open wins, two U.S. Open wins) on hard surfaces.

So, it makes sense that oddsmakers have set this as an extremely close match on Monday afternoon.

Let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s path to Round 4 and my prediction for Monday’s showdown.

Naomi Osaka vs. Elena Rybakina Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Naomi Osaka: +117
Elena Rybakina: -142

Total

23.5 (Over -110/Under -130)

Naomi Osaka vs. Elena Rybakina How to Watch

Date: Monday, Sept. 7
Time: 2:30 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Naomi Osaka vs. Elena Rybakina History and U.S. Open Performance

Osaka and Rybakina have met once in their respective careers, facing off earlier this year in the quarterfinals of the National Bank Open (hard surface). Rybakina won that match in three sets even though Osaka took the opening set.

The two stars played 33 games to decide that match with Rybakina coming out on top 4-6, 7-6, 6-4.

Naomi Osaka

Osaka had a strong showing at the U.S. Open in 2025, reaching the semifinals, but she last won this tournament all the way back in 2020. This year has been solid for the No. 13-ranked player in this tournament, as she’s coming off a quarterfinal berth at Wimbledon – her best Grand Slam finish in 2026.

In the 2026 U.S. Open, Osaka has dropped two sets, but she knocked off No. 23 Elise Mertens in the third round, 6-3, 3-6, 7-5, to advance to Round 4. Rybakina is by far the toughest matchup to date for Osaka in this tournament.

Elena Rybakina

Rybakina has never had a ton of success in the U.S. Open, making her best run in 2025 with a fourth-round exit. Still, she won a Grand Slam already this year and has an elite record on hard courts.

The No. 2-ranked player in the tournament did not make the fourth round at the French Open or Wimbledon, so she’s looking to build on one of her better showings in a Grand Slam this year.

To reach the fourth round, Rybakina has won three straight matches in straight sets, only going to one tiebreaker in the process.

Naomi Osaka vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction and Pick

I believe these two players are pretty evenly matched – the odds say the same – heading into Round 4, so I’m looking to the total rather than taking a side.

This match is set at 23.5 games, which is a sign that oddsmakers are expecting a third set on Monday. In fact, Osaka is -240 to win a set even though she’s a +117 underdog to win this match.

So, I’m going to take the OVER and bet on this match going the distance.

Osaka and Rybakina needed 33 games to settle their National Bank Open quarterfinal earlier this year, and Osaka has already played back-to-back matches that have gone to a third set.

In this tournament, she’s played 26, 27 and 30 games in three matches. Rybakina has been the complete opposite, playing 17, 18 and 22 games, but she’s yet to face a ranked opponent in the U.S. Open.

Given Osaka’s success at the U.S. Open and both player’s success on hard courts, I think we’ll see a longer match on Monday afternoon.

Pick: OVER 23.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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