Nationals vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, May 25

The Washington Nationals have jumped into second place in the NL East this season, but they have a tough matchup on Monday night on the road against a surging Cleveland Guardians team.

Cleveland is in first place in the AL Central and has won eight of its last 10 games, though it has not fared well with righty Tanner Bibee on the mound. Despite posting a 3.75 ERA in 2026, Bibee has yet to earn a win and Cleveland is just 2-9 in his 11 outings.

So, are the Guardians overvalued as home favorites on Monday?

It’s possible, but they’re facing a struggling pitcher in Washington’s Zack Littell, who has a 5.83 ERA and ranks in the first percentile in expected ERA this season. Washington is somehow 5-5 in his outings, but the righty has allowed two or fewer earned runs in all four of his May starts.

So, can he beat Bibee on Monday night?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this interleague showdown.

Nationals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Nationals +1.5 (-144)
Guardians -1.5 (+119)

Moneyline

Nationals: +144
Guardians: -175

Total

8 (Over -114/Under -104)

Nationals vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

Washington: Zack Littell (3-4, 5.83 ERA)
Cleveland: Tanner Bibee (0-6, 3.75 ERA)

Nationals vs. Guardians How to Watch

Date: Monday, May 25
Time: 6:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Progressive Field
How to Watch (TV): National;s.TV/CLEGuardians.TV
Nationals record: 27-27
Guardians record: 32-23

Nationals vs. Guardians Best MLB Prop Bets

Guardians Best MLB Prop Bet

Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+341)

In today’s best home run picks column for SI Betting, I broke down why Ramirez is worth a look against this Washington staff:

Cleveland Guardians star Jose Ramirez has a very favorable matchup against the Washington Nationals and right-hander Zack Littell, who has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB this season.

Littell has given up 15 home runs in 10 starts, posting a 5.83 ERA in the process. He ranks in the first percentile in MLB in expected ERA, so it wouldn’t shock me if the Guardians tee off on him on Monday.

On top of that, the Washington bullpen (4.77 ERA) has already allowed 35 home runs in the 2026 season.

Ramirez has just eight home runs in 2026, but he has hit two over the last two weeks while posting a .240 batting average. The All-Star third baseman is hitting .364 (4-for-11) with a pair of extra-base hits against Littell in his career.

I’m going to fade Littell just about every time he’s on the mound, and I like this price for Ramirez as he eyes his ninth homer this season.

Nationals vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Bibee’s poor record is not totally his fault this season, as he’s pitched to a 3.90 expected ERA and has only allowed more than three runs in two of his 11 starts this season.

This is a tough matchup against a Washington offense that is No. 1 in runs scored and No. 4 in OPS this season, but I simply cannot trust Littell to win this game.

The righty has some extremely concerning advanced numbers, and the Washington bullpen (4.77 ERA) has been awful behind him this season.

Littell has an expected ERA of 7.45 (first percentile), an expected BAA of .305 (third percentile) and ranks in the sixth percentile or worse in barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage, whiff percentage, average exit velocity against and strikeout percentage.

So, the Guardians should tee off on him early in this game.

Bibee’s unlucky start to the season is tough to look past, but he really hasn’t pitched poorly, allowing just 54 hits in 60.0 innings of work. Even if Bibee doesn’t get the win, I think Cleveland will come out on top on Monday night.

Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-175 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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