Nationals vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, April 30

The New York Mets and Washington Nationals have traded blowout wins in their series this week, as New York took Game 1 8-0 before Washington hung 14 runs on Wednesday night in a 14-2 win.

So, who has the edge in this decisive Game 3?

At just 10-20, the Mets are in last place in the NL East and have an extremely shaky minus-34 run differential this season. However, they have their ace – Freddy Peralta – on the mound for Thursday afternoon’s matchups.

He’ll take on struggling Washington starter Miles Mikolas (8.49 ERA), who has led the Nats to just two wins in six appearances this season.

Oddsmakers have set the Mets as -207 favorites at home, but can bettors trust them to bounce back from a dreadful showing on Wednesday?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Thursday’s series finale.

Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Nationals +1.5 (-122)
Mets -1.5 (+102)

Moneyline

Nationals: +169
Mets: -207

Total

8 (Over -102/Under -118)

Nationals vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

Washington: Miles Mikolas (0-3, 8.49 ERA)
New York: Freddy Peralta (1-3, 3.90 ERA)

Nationals vs. Mets How to Watch

Date: Thursday, April 30
Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Citi Field
How to Watch (TV): SNY, Nationals.TV
Nationals record: 14-17
Mets record: 10-20

Nationals vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+313)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props column – Daily Dinger – why Soto could homer for the third game in a row:

New York Mets superstar Juan Soto has homered in back-to-back games against one of his former teams – the Washington Nationals – and he’s a great target to leave the yard again on Thursday afternoon.

Soto has moved to +313 to hit a home run on Thursday, as the Mets take on Miles Mikolas (8.49 ERA) and a shaky Washington bullpen. The Nationals’ pen has been an auto fade in the 2026 season, posting a 5.01 ERA while allowing 24 home runs.

Meanwhile, Mikolas has been rocked in several starts, allowing seven home runs in six starts. He’s also struggled against Soto in his career.

The Mets star is 8-for-21 with a home run, double and a .952 OPS against Mikolas, and he should stay hot after posting a .471 batting average against right-handed pitching so far this season.

Nationals vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

The Mets have been a really tough team to bet on this season, but I’m going to take them on the run line with this pitching matchup set for Thursday afternoon.

Peralta has not pitched horribly this season, allowing just 26 hits in 32.1 innings of work, ranking in the 67th percentile in expected ERA and the 66th percentile in expected batting average against. He’s been a victim of weak run support, as the Mets haven’t scored more than four runs in any of his five starts in April.

However, I think that could change against Mikolas and this shaky Washington bullpen on Thursday.

Mikolas ranks in the 18th percentile in expected ERA, the 23rd percentile in expected BAA and the 27th percentile in hard-hit percentage. He’s given up 33 hits and 10 walks in just 23.1 innings of work.

The Mets’ offense has a little more juice with Soto back in action, and New York’s bullpen (4.01 ERA) has an edge over Washington’s (5.01 ERA) in 2026.

Since the first two games in this series were clear blowouts, I wouldn't be shocked to see New York run away with this game with Peralta on the mound.

Pick: Mets -1.5 (+102 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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