Nationals vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, April 16

Thursday's MLB action kicks off with a 12:35 p.m. EST matchup between the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates – the final game of a four-game set.

Pittsburgh opened the series by scoring 16 runs in a Game 1 win, and it took a 2-1 series lead on Wednesday with a 2-0 victory behind a dazzling pitching performance. The Pirates allowed just three hits, and Carmen Mlodzinski tossed six frames of two-hit ball in the win.

Now, the Pirates are favored in the series finale with Braxton Ashcraft (2.12 ERA) on the mound against Washington’s Foster Griffin (1.76 ERA). After a few years playing in Japan, Griffin returned to MLB this season and has looked the part of a MLB starter, allowing just 11 hits and three runs in 15.1 innings of work.

Can he lead Washington to an upset on Thursday afternoon?

Let’s take a look at the betting odds, a player prop for a rookie star and my prediction for Thursday’s National League battle.

Nationals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Nationals +1.5 (-156)
Pirates -1.5 (+129)

Moneyline

Nationals: +129
Pirates: -156

Total

9 (Over +101/Under -122)

Nationals vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

Washington: Foster Griffin (2-0, 1.76 ERA)
Pittsburgh: Braxton Ashcraft (1-1, 2.12 ERA)

Nationals vs. Pirates How to Watch

Date: Thursday, April 16
Time: 12:35 p.m. EST
Venue: PNC Park
How to Watch (TV): MLB.TV
Nationals record: 8-10
Pirates record: 11-7

Nationals vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Konnor Griffin to Hit a Home Run (+595)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Griffin is worth a look at this price to hit his first career homer:

Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Konnor Griffin is off to a bit of a slow start in his MLB career, but I think he’s worth a look to leave the yard on Thursday against the Washington Nationals.

Washington has lefty Foster Griffin on the mound, and he’s given up two home runs already this season despite posting a 1.76 ERA. I’m targeting Washington’s bullpen even more than the left-hander in this matchup, as the Nats have a 6.17 bullpen ERA and have given up 20 homers already in the 2026 season.

Konnor Griffin homered 21 times in 122 minor league games in 2025, and it’s only a matter of time before he leaves the yards in the big leagues. I think this weak Washington staff is the perfect team to fade on Thursday afternoon.

Nationals vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pittsburgh is in first place in the NL Central with a +20 run differential this season, and it’s hard to look past the Pirates as favorites at home, where they are 6-3 in the 2026 season.

Pittsburgh is 10th in MLB in OPS, and it has the fourth-best team ERA in the league. The Pirates’ bullpen has been awesome, posting a 3.51 ERA early on in the 2026 campaign.

That’s where the advantage lies in this series finale, as Washington has the worst bullpen (6.17 ERA) in MLB. Even if Griffin gets through the first five frames with the lead or tied, I don’t trust the Washington relievers to maintain a lead.

Griffin is off to a strong start in 2026, but he has walked six batters and has a Fielding Independent Pitching of 4.66 (nearly three runs higher than his ERA). So, he could be due for some regression against a solid Pittsburgh offense.

Washington has been pretty good on the road this season, but Ashcraft has been one of the best young pitchers in MLB to open 2026.

He ranks in the 92nd percentile in expected ERA, the 88th percentile in expected batting average against and the 84th percentile in strikeout percentage.

I’m buying him to lead the Pirates to a series win on Thursday.

Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-156 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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