Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for C.J. McCollum, Nikola Jokic, Hawks, Timberwolves)

A ton is at stake in the NBA on Thursday night, as a pair of No. 6 seeds are looking to take a lead in the first-round series and put some pressure on two title contenders.

C.J. McCollum and the Atlanta Hawks are set in a pick’em with the New York Knicks – the first of three games on April 23:

New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves

While the Cleveland Cavaliers are up 2-0 on the Toronto Raptors, the night cap on Thursday is another No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup that could turn in the lower seed’s favor. Minnesota is coming off a huge win in Game 2, and it’s a small underdog at home in Game 3 against Nikola Jokic and company.

I’m eyeing four plays for today’s NBA Best Bets column, including player props for McCollum and Jokic as they look to lead their teams to Game 3 wins.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 263-225 (-1.42 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1554-1463-27 (+31.73 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

C.J. McCollum 18+ Points (-163)
Josh Hart OVER 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (-114)
Nikola Jokic OVER 9.5 Assists (-138)
Minnesota Timberwolves-Atlanta Hawks Parlay (-150)

C.J. McCollum 18+ Points (-163)

C.J. McCollum averaged 18.7 points per game during the regular season, and he’s taken on the No. 1 role for the Hawks on offense with the Knicks intent on slowing down All-Star Jalen Johnson.

McCollum has taken 20 and 22 shots in the first two games in this series, turning them into 26 and 32 points. He’s shooting 54.8 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from beyond the arc on 9.5 3-point attempts per game.

The volume here is ridiculous.

Always known to be a solid scorer, McCollum has attacked Jalen Brunson in switches and has a lot of playoff experience from his time in Portland. Being able to get him to score 18 or more points – at home – is an absolute steal in Game 3.

Josh Hart OVER 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (-114)

Knicks wing Josh Hart does it all for this game, and he always seems to find another level in the playoffs.

Atlanta’s frontcourt is extremely thin with Onyeka Okongwu as the only true center in the rotation, which has helped Hart dominate the boards like no other player his size can. He’s averaging 13.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game in this series, yet his combined rebounds and assists prop is at 12.5.

Sure, there’s a chance Hart takes a step back on the glass, but the Knicks wing is all about effort even if he’s not scoring the ball at a high level.

In his last two playoff runs, Hart averaged 11.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game (2024) and 8.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game (2025). So far this postseason, he’s averaging an insane 19.0 rebound chances and 7.0 potential assists per game, giving him too high of a floor to pass up at this number.

Nikola Jokic OVER 9.5 Assists (-138)

Nikola Jokic appeared to be well on his way to another big game as a passer in Game 2, but he only recorded a couple of assists after the first quarter in the Nuggets’ loss.

The Timberwolves changed up their game plan a bit, having Rudy Gobert guard Jokic one-on-one to force the big man to attack more as a scorer. The result? A Denver loss and an 8-for-20 shooting game from the three-time NBA MVP.

I don’t expect that to continue in Game 3, and I’m going to take Jokic to finish with double-digit assists on Thursday. He reached 10 or more dimes in three of four regular-season meetings with the Wolves and had 11 dimes in Game 1.

This postseason, Jokic is averaging 20.5 potential assists per game, and he may just need a better shooting night from Denver to blow past this prop. After all, the MVP candidate averaged 10.7 assists per game in the regular season.

Minnesota Timberwolves-Atlanta Hawks Parlay (-150)

Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5 (-334)
Atlanta Hawks +8.5 (-355)

I’m moving the line for a couple of teams that I like on Thursday, as a multi-possession should be enough to cash this parlay.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Nuggets struggled during the regular season as road favorites, going just 12-15 against the spread, and they didn’t execute well down the stretch in Game 2.

Minnesota has to be happy with a split in Denver since Anthony Edwards shot 7-for-19 and 10-for-25 in the first two games of this series. After two days off, the star guard may be in a better spot as he’s dealing with a knee injury that he suffered late in the regular season.

The decision to play Jokic straight up in Game 2 worked wonders for Minnesota, and Julius Randle (24 points, nine rebounds, six assists in Game 2) had one of his best games in weeks. If Randle plays at an All-Star level, the Wolves are a really tough team to beat – even for Denver.

The Nuggets’ offensive rating is nine points lower in the playoffs than it was during the regular season, which makes their shaky defense a bigger issue heading into Game 3. Minnesota should be able to cover this number and is a threat to win outright tonight.

Atlanta Hawks

All season long, the Knicks have struggled on the road, going 9-18 against the spread as road favorites and just three games over .500 on the road in 41 games.

So, I’m buying Atlanta in Game 3 after it took the momentum in this series in the fourth quarter of Game 2.

It took a great shooting performance from 3 in Game 1 for the Knicks to win, and their offense became stagnant at the end of Game 2, relying heavily on Jalen Brunson.

After the Knicks’ bench helped flip Game 1 in their favor, it was essentially nonexistent in Game 2, and New York was crushed in the minutes that Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns were on the bench.

The Knicks have not been a team to trust on the road all season, so moving this line to give Atlanta 8.5 points is a great cushion, even if New York ends up pulling out the win.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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