Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Brunson, Knicks vs. Spurs NBA Finals Game 5)

A Saturday night potential close-out game in the NBA Finals?

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OG Anunoby and the New York Knicks are one win away from ending a 53-year title drought after the star forward blocked De’Aaron Fox and tipped in a Jalen Brunson miss in the closing seconds of Game 4 to complete a comeback from a 29-point deficit, the largest in NBA Finals history.

However, the San Antonio Spurs and Victor Wembanyama are favored at home in Game 5, even though they dropped the opening two games of this series on their home floor. This young Spurs team has blown two games in this series – Games 2 and 4 – and it now is looking to become just the second team in league history to erase a 3-1 series deficit in the NBA Finals.

New York is a -500 favorite to win this series in the latest odds at the best betting sites, but the “correct score” market has Knicks in six (+145) as the most-likely outcome in this series. New York is +164 to win Game 5, a sign that Vegas expects the Spurs to make a stand on their home floor.

Still, there’s a chance that Game 5 is the final game of the 2025-26 NBA season, and I’m looking to close it strong in this edition of Peter’s Points. After two of my three bets cashed in Game 4, I’m looking to three more plays on Saturday night, including a prop bet for Brunson.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 326-292 (-10.03 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1617-1528-27 (+23.11 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

New York Knicks +5.5 (-112) vs. San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs First Quarter Moneyline (-142)
Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+121)

New York Knicks +5.5 (-112) vs. San Antonio Spurs

Saying that there is a “team of destiny” in the NBA Finals is far from an actual reason to bet on the Knicks, but after Game 4, it’s hard not to think that.

New York has multiple 20-point comebacks in the playoffs, including the largest comeback in Finals history to steal Game 4.

But, the most impressive part is that the Knicks are also playing at an insanely high level, comebacks and all. They rank No. 1 in the playoffs in offensive, defensive and net rating, and they held San Antonio to just 30 second-half points in Game 4.

I expect the Spurs to come out fighting in Game 5, and they’ve gotten off to strong starts in every game in this series. However, I can’t bet on them to cover this 5.5-point spread.

First off, the 2026 NBA Finals have been extremely close with New York winning Game 1 by 10 points before Games 2 through 4 were decided by one, four and one point. This postseason, the Knicks have just three losses and all of them have come by four points or less.

So, the Spurs would have to do something that nobody has done this postseason to cover the spread in this game. With how well the Knicks have performed down the stretch – and how often the Spurs have made foolish mistakes – asking San Antonio to win by six or more is a tall task.

If bettors and fans didn’t know about the resilience of this Knicks team, there is no better example than how Brunson, Anunoby and Co. walked down the Spurs in Game 4.

I’m not going to say that the Knicks win another road game to take the Finals in five, but I do think they’ll keep this game close. The road team is 4-0 against the spread in this series, and the Knicks already have two outright wins on the road. Give me the points on Saturday night.

San Antonio Spurs First Quarter Moneyline (-142)

It’s no secret that the Spurs have dominated the first quarter in this series, and now that they’re at home with their season on the line, I expect another spirited performance in the opening frame.

In the 2026 playoffs, San Antonio has a league-best plus-19.2 net rating in the first quarter, ranking No. 2 in the league in offensive rating, defensive rating and third in effective field goal percentage.

In this series, the Knicks haven’t had an answer for the Spurs early on, and Karl-Anthony Towns’ potential foul trouble is always looming early in games.

Here’s the results of the first quarters in Games 1 through 4:

Game 1: Spurs 27, Knicks 19
Game 2: Spurs 34, Knicks 25
Game 3: Spurs 33, Knicks 22
Game 4: Spurs 41, Knicks 22

So, the Spurs have outscored the Knicks by 47 points in the opening frame in this series.

San Antonio has to “play desperate” in Game 5, and while the Knicks have dominated close-out games in this postseason, I do think things will be a lot tougher against Wemby and company.

Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+121)

Jalen Brunson is shooting 34.5 percent from beyond the arc in the NBA Finals and 35.0 percent from 3 in the playoffs, though those numbers would look a lot better if he didn’t slump from 3 in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers (4-for-22).

Brunson has three or more 3-pointers in back-to-back games, and he’s shown zero fear when it comes to attacking Wembanyama or other Spurs in switches when he can step into a 3.

San Antonio is trying to keep the star guard out of the paint, and Brunson has taken nine, eight, five and seven 3-pointers in the four games in this series. He took 17 3-pointers in the two games in San Antonio, and if he comes anywhere near that volume, he’s a great bet to hit three or more shots from deep.

I’m buying low on the Knicks star after by far his best game of the series. At +121, he’s a steal in this market on Saturday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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