Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jayson Tatum, Thunder-Spurs, Tyrese Maxey)

It’s that time again.

The NBA is BACK on Tuesday with a wonderful three-game slate, starting with an afternoon matchup and closing out with a rematch of last season’s Western Conference Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs.

Oh, and the NBA champion New York Knicks will hang a banner on Tuesday night before they take on the Philadelphia 76ers and their new-look starting lineup that features both LeBron James and Jaylen Brown.

Here’s a quick snapshot of the action on Oct. 20:

Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

All six of these teams have NBA Finals expectations in the 2026 season, and all three spreads are within five points. What a way to start the 2026-27 campaign!

I previewed the 2026-27 campaign throughout this month, culminating with my annual column where I share my favorite futures bets for the 2026-27 season. Make sure to check that out to see which team’s I’m high on – and some that I’m not – entering the season!

There are going to be a couple of new things in Peter’s Points this season that I’m excited to share with everyone.

First off, I'll highlight my favorite thing to watch – Peter’s Point – for each day’s slate, whether it’s a player, a trend, a streak or a team that simply has caught my eye this season.

Secondly, we’ll be doing a little more recapping before getting into the picks each day, highlighting one thing from the previous day’s action that NBA fans, bettors and any other readers should know. Since we don’t have any regular-season games preceding this column, you’ll have to come back on Wednesday for the first edition.

So, let’s get right into it for Tuesday's opening night!

Peter’s Point: The Knicks are hanging a banner, but I’m super intrigued by this Philadelphia 76ers lineup, especially with LeBron James and Jaylen Brown in the fold. It’ll be interesting to see the actions Nick Nurse plans with all five players on the floor, substitution patterns and the shot distribution for this team. There aren’t a ton of times that we’ll see all five starters on the floor, but Tuesday night will be a solid measuring stick going forward.

I’m targeting four plays to open the 2026-27 NBA season, including prop bets for All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Maxey.

Peter Dewey NBA Betting Record

2026-27 season record: 0-0 (+0.00 units)
2025-26 season record: 330-292-0 (-2.98 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1621-1528-27 (+30.17 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Boston Celtics Moneyline (-112) vs. Detroit Pistons
Jayson Tatum 40+ Points, Rebounds and Assists (-163)
Tyrese Maxey OVER 21.5 Points (-112)
Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 (-112) vs. San Antonio Spurs

Boston Celtics Moneyline (-112) vs. Detroit Pistons

Early in the 2026-27 season, I’ll be looking to fade some teams that I’m not nearly as high on as the market is, and the Pistons happen to be one of those squads.

Simply put, I don’t love the Detroit offseason. The team failed to get a true No. 2 ball-handling option after Cade Cunningham, and it let Tobias Harris walk in free agency. Harris was clearly the best shot-creator after Cunningham during the team’s playoff run with Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson getting exposed as limited offensive players.

The Duren contract situation also played its way all the way up until training camp, and it’ll be interesting to see how he responds after a dreadful playoff run in 2026.

Meanwhile, I’m all in on a Jayson Tatum-led Boston team that has a ton of shooting around him and has been a regular-season wins machine with Joe Mazzulla at the helm. Boston cleared its win total with ease last season, and Tatum is simply a better all-around offensive engine than Jaylen Brown, who is now in Philadelphia after the C’s swapped him for Paul George and draft capital.

If this team was able to win 56 games last season and finish with the No. 2 offense in the NBA, I have much higher expectations coming into the 2026-27 campaign.

Mitchell Robinson gives Boston a much steadier presence in the middle, and the C’s have a lot more offensive firepower than a Pistons team that is extremely reliant on Cunningham. I like Boston in a near pick’em scenario in Game 1.

Jayson Tatum 40+ Points, Rebounds and Assists (-163)

Tatum is one of my favorite bets to win the MVP this season, as he’s entering the season as the clear-cut No. 1 option in an offense that has been a top-five unit in the Mazzulla era.

In his last healthy season (the 2024-25 campaign), Tatum averaged 26.8 points, 8.7 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game while earning First Team All-NBA honors. He’s going to have to deal with Ausar Thompson hounding him in this game, but I think Tatum’s rebounding and passing are the real draw when it comes to this prop.

Not only is the star forward going to get a ton of shots, but he’s entering a true offensive hub role for Boston, one that allowed Brown to average a career-high 5.1 assists per game in last season.

Tatum is by far the better playmaker, and I expect him to average somewhere around 27 points, 10 rebounds and six assists in the 2026-27 season. I think this line is a little low for him – even in Game 1 – in what should be a close game based on the spread (Boston -1.5).

Tyrese Maxey OVER 21.5 Points (-112)

There are a lot of new faces in Philadelphia, and it could lead to a few less touches for star guard Tyrese Maxey, who averaged 28.3 points per game in the 2026-27 season.

Maxey has put up 25.9 or more points per game in three straight seasons, but oddsmakers clearly are being cautious with how they set props for this game between the Knicks and 76ers with Philly now featuring LeBron, Brown and a healthy Joel Embiid – for now.

Still, I think this number is way too low.

Maxey has 22 or more points in nine of his last 10 regular-season games against the Knicks, and New York is going to have a tougher time matching up on Philly with this starting group. Jalen Brunson doesn’t really have an ideal spot to hide, and Maxey’s speed has been an issue for the Knicks’ wings in the past.

New York cleaned that up during last season’s playoff run, but I’m still shocked to see Maxey at this number. Not only did he average over 28 points per game last season, but he led the league in minutes per game as well (38.0 per night). His role isn’t going to take as much of a hit as this line suggests if Nick Nurse keeps his minutes workload in a similar spot this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 (-112) vs. San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio may have won the Western Conference Finals in the 2025-26 season, but will it be the better team between these teams in the 2026-27 campaign?

The calling card for the Spurs all year long was their regular-season record against OKC, and for good reason. The Thunder were punked at points by this Spurs team, and they ultimately fell short in the playoffs.

Still, OKC didn’t have Ajay Mitchell or Jalen Williams for most of that Western Conference Finals matchup, and I firmly believe that OKC wins that series if both – or even one – of those players was healthy.

The Thunder are relying on a bunch of young pieces in the 2026-27 campaign, but they got bigger in the offseason by adding lottery pick Aday Mara. It’s unclear how big of a role he’ll play from the jump, but it does give the Thunder another body to throw at Victor Wembanyama in a playoff series.

These two teams both finished in the top three in the league in net rating and defensive rating last season, and I expect a close game in this series opener. However, I trust the Thunder’s core a lot more than a Spurs team that seems to be integrating Dylan Harper into the starting lineup.

The three-guard lineup of Harper, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle was killed in limited minutes during the 2025-26 season, and I don’t see it holding up defensively against SGA, Williams and Co. They were outscored by 47 points across 69 total minutes together and 25 of those minutes came in the NBA Finals.

So, I suspect that there are going to be some growing pains with that group to open this season.

I like the Thunder as a sneaky underdog bet in this season opener.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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