Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jayson Tatum, Victor Wembanyama, Pistons, Thunder)

Four more Game 1s are set for Sunday, April 19, and the three top teams in the odds to win the NBA Finals (OKC, Boston and San Antonio) are all in action:

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Orlando Magic vs. Detroit Pistons
Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs

So, how should we bet on these matchups with the top two seeds in each conference set to battle some play-in tournament winners?

Saturday was not the best start to the postseason in Peter’s Points, but I’m eyeing a bounce-back showing on Sunday.

There are two player props that I love – including one for Boston Celtics star Jayson Tatum – as well as three teams I’m simply taking to win outright in a parlay.

Home teams were 4-0 straight up and against the spread on Saturday, but will that trend continue with all of the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in action?

Let’s dive into the a breakdown of each of Sunday’s NBA Best Bets!

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 253-215 (-2.59 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1544-1455-27 (+30.55 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Jayson Tatum 9+ Rebounds (-155)
3-Team Moneyline Parlay (-156)
Victor Wembanyama OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-119)

Jayson Tatum 9+ Rebounds (-155)

An amazing recovery from an Achilles injury has Boston’s best player back for the playoff run, and he’s a must-bet in the prop market on Sunday.

Jayson Tatum was awesome on the glass after returning to the lineup, averaging 10.0 rebounds per game in 16 games. He had at least nine boards in 11 of those matchups, including 10 games with at least 10 boards.

Now, he takes on a Philly team that was 21st in rebound percentage and 22nd in the league in opponent rebounds per game in the regular season. With Joel Embiid out, the 76ers aren’t nearly as dangerous down low, and Tatum has shown before that he is Boston’s best rebounder in the playoffs.

Over his last three playoff runs, Tatum has averaged 11.5, 9.7 and 10.5 rebounds per game. He’s an absolute steal at this number, especially if Joe Mazzulla opts to go small with Tatum as the de facto center in those lineups.

3-Team Moneyline Parlay (-156)

Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline
San Antonio Spurs Moneyline
Detroit Pistons Moneyline

This parlay is pretty simple, as I’m targeting some massive favorites that all had one thing in common – elite home records.

OKC went 34-7 at home in the regular season while the Spurs (32-8) and Pistons (31-9) were right behind them.

The Thunder have swept back-to-back first-round opponents in the NBA Playoffs, and I think they’ll roll against a Suns team that had to play on Friday night and has multiple losses by 25-plus points against OKC this season.

In Detroit, I like the Pistons to win against an Orlando team that is under .500 on the road this season (both straight up and against the spread). The Magic may have knocked off Charlotte on Friday, but the Pistons are a physical team that can meet Orlando’s size. With Cade Cunningham (lung) back in the lineup, Detroit is a no-brainer bet in Game 1.

Lastly, the Spurs went 20-17-1 against the spread when favored at home, and they’re taking on a Portland team that has a -9.8 average scoring margin as a road underdog this season. The Blazers were just 16-33 during the regular season against teams that were .500 or better, and they went 1-2 against the Spurs even though Victor Wembanyama missed all three games.

Victor Wembanyama OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-119)

Wembanyama closed out the regular season with 13 or more rebounds in seven of his last eight games, only failing to clear this line in the matchup where he injured his rib.

The MVP candidate averaged 11.5 rebounds per game in the regular season, and I think that number goes up in the playoffs if he plays more minutes. The Spurs played the star center just 29.2 minutes per game in the regular season, but I'd expect that number to rise in the playoffs.

Portland finished the regular season seventh in rebound percentage, but it was outside the top 10 in opponent rebounds per game. That sets up well for Wemby, who averaged 17.4 rebound chances per game in the regular season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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