Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for LaMelo Ball, Heat-Hornets, Blazers-Suns)

Postseason basketball is finally here!

Tuesday’s play-in tournament action features the No. 10 Miami Heat taking on the No. 9 Charlotte Hornets in the Eastern Conference before the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference is decided between the No. 8 Portland Trail Blazers and No. 7 Phoenix Suns.

Phoenix has the best odds of any play-in team to make the final playoff field and it is currently favored by 4.5 points at home in this play-in matchup. However, the Blazers closed out the regular season strong, leaping the Los Angeles Clippers for the No. 8 spot by posting the eight-best net rating in the league over their final 15 games.

In the east, Charlotte is the darling of the play-in tournament after finishing the regular season with the No. 8 net rating in the league. The Hornets were 18-9 after the All-Star break, and they’re +146 to win two games in a row to make the final playoff field.

Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished top 8 in net rating in the regular season.

The eight teams for the 2025-26 season:

1. OKC
2. Pistons
3. Spurs
4. Celtics
5. Knicks
6. Rockets
7. Nuggets
8. Hornets
— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) April 13, 2026

Charlotte is the biggest favorite on the board in the play-in tournament after Miami backed into the postseason by losing 10 of its last 15 games.

There are a ton of ways to bet on Tuesday’s action, and I’m eyeing a player prop for a Charlotte Hornets guard, a spread and a total.

Let’s dive into the odds and analysis behind each of these picks with playoff spots on the line.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 245-201 (+1.96 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1536-1441-27 (+35.11 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

LaMelo Ball OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (-163)
Charlotte Hornets -5.5 (-110) vs. Miami Heat
Portland Trail Blazers-Phoenix Suns UNDER 217.5 (-110)

LaMelo Ball OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (-163)

Hornets guard LaMelo Ball has been on fire from beyond the arc in recent weeks, shooting 37.3 percent from deep on 12.1 attempts per game over his last 21 appearances. He’s made at least four shots from beyond the arc in 16 of his 21 games during that stretch, averaging 4.5 3-pointers per game.

For the entire season, Ball is shooting 36.8 percent from deep on over 10 attempts per game, giving him a really solid floor when it comes to this market.

Miami ranks 22nd in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game and 17th in opponent 3-point percentage in the 2025-26 season. Ball has five, four and four 3-pointers in his games against the Heat, taking over 10 attempts in each of those games.

Charlotte Hornets -5.5 (-110) vs. Miami Heat

No team in the NBA had a better against the spread record in the regular season than the Hornets, and they thrived in 21 games as a home favorite, going 14-7 ATS. On top of that, Charlotte posted an average scoring margin of +11.2 in those games.

Miami has far more experience in the play-in/playoffs under Erik Spoelstra, but Charles Lee’s Hornets have played a unique brand of basketball that landed them at eighth in the league in net rating, fifth in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating.

Miami (No. 1 in pace) loves to play fast, but it ranked just 12th in the league in offensive rating during the regular season. So, playing at a faster pace doesn’t guarantee that the Heat will be able to pull away from this Hornets team, especially since Miami’s defense slipped over the final stretch of the regular season.

The Heat were just 5-10 over their last 15 games, ranking 20th in net rating and 28th in defensive rating, spoiling an offensive stretch where they were the ninth-most efficient group in the league.

The Hornets’ rise into the top-eight in net rating came over a long period of time, as they were one of the five-best teams (in net rating) for basically the last three months of the regular season.

This spread doesn’t scare me away from Charlotte, even though the Heat did go 16-14 against the spread as road underdogs. There’s a reason Charlotte is +146 to make the playoffs out of the No. 9 spot, and I think it will overpower a Miami team that isn’t nearly as efficient on the offensive end.

Portland Trail Blazers-Phoenix Suns UNDER 217.5 (-110)

I’m eyeing an UNDER bet in the second matchup of the night, even though two of the three meetings between these teams finished with 237 or more points. The final meeting in late February was a 92-77 win for Portland.

I’m not putting too much stock into a game that happened nearly two months ago, but there are a couple of key trends that support an UNDER bet on Tuesday.

First off, Phoenix has the No. 9 defensive rating in the NBA this season, and it ranks seventh in the league in defensive rating at home (111.1). So, Jordan Ott’s group is going to compete on that end of the floor, even if it isn’t loaded with playoff experience up and down the roster.

When it comes to the UNDER , there are two key trends that I can’t look past:

The UNDER hit in 27 of the Suns’ 41 home games
The UNDER hit in 24 of the Blazers’ 41 road games

Portland wasn’t as good defensively as the Suns during the regular season 12th in defensive rating), but it also ranked just 21st in the league in offensive rating (Phoenix was 17th).

So, we could see a defensive battle in this matchup, especially since there may be some play-in jitters from two teams without a ton of postseason experience.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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