NBA Playoff Odds: Magic, 76ers, Blazers, Suns Favored to Advance Through Play-In Tournament

The stage is officially set for the NBA’s Play-In Tournament, and the odds to make the playoffs have shifted a bit following the final day of the regular season.

The Portland Trail Blazers held off the Los Angeles Clippers for the No. 8 seed in the West, officially locking them into a No. 8 vs. No. 7 matchup with the Phoenix Suns.

Landing a top-eight seed is huge in the play-in era, as it allows those two teams to have two chances to win one game and make the final playoff field. Orlando (No. 8 in the East), Philly (No. 7 in the East), Phoenix (No. 7 in the West) and Portland have been set as favorites to make the postseason coming out of that spot.

Still, there are some intriguing teams in the No. 9 and No. 10 spots in each conference. Here’s a look at the play-in matchups that will take place on Tuesday and Wednesday before the No. 8 seed in each conference is decided on Friday.

Eastern Conference

Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets
Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Western Conference

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Phoenix Suns

Two teams playing the No. 10 vs. No. 9 games – Charlotte and Los Angeles – are in the mix to make the playoffs based on the latest odds, but neither squad is favored to do so. Let’s take a look at the latest playoff odds and the case for each team ahead of the play-in action this week.

NBA Playoff Odds for Every Play-In Tournament Team

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Phoenix Suns: -600
Orlando Magic: -420
Portland Trail Blazers: -310
Philadelphia 76ers: -300
Charlotte Hornets: +146
Los Angeles Clippers: +225
Golden State Warriors: +350
Miami Heat: +470

Phoenix Suns

Phoenix finished the regular season 25-16 straight up at home, and it’ll have two home games (if needed) to make the playoffs this season.

The Suns finished the regular season 15th in the NBA in net rating, but they have the No. 9 defense in the league, which should make them a tough out in the play-in. Devin Booker and company absolutely smashed preseason expectations, and they did win two of their three meetings in the regular season against Portland.

Oddsmakers have set the Suns as 4.5-point favorites in their play-in matchup with Portland on Tuesday. With a win in that game, the Suns would take on the No. 2-seeded San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the playoffs.

Orlando Magic

Despite losing to a makeshift Boston Celtics team on Sunday, the Orlando Magic and Paolo Banchero have the best odds out of the East play-in teams to make the playoffs.

Orlando is the No. 8 seed in the East after Sunday’s loss, but it’ll take on a Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers team in Wednesday’s No. 8 v. No. 7 matchup. Oddsmakers have the Magic as slight underdogs (-105 on the moneyline) in that game, which makes a stay away bet at this price to make the playoffs.

Orlando is just 17th in the NBA in net rating and 18th in offensive rating this season, and it could be vulnerable to an upset against a team like Charlotte if it loses the first play-in game to Philly. The 76ers are at less than 100 percent, which is likely why Orlando’s odds are so favorable, but Philly won six of 10 to end the regular season and was 23-18 straight up at home.

Portland Trail Blazers

Portland rode a huge finish to the regular season, including multiple head-to-head wins over the Clippers, to earn the No. 8 seed in the West.

Now, the Blazers are favored to make the playoffs, even though they’re 4.5-point underdogs against the Suns on Tuesday night.

Portland may end up losing the first play-in game, but it will have a home game (where it was 24-17 in the regular season) in the second play-in matchup. Now, there’s a chance the Clippers would be favored in a hypothetical matchup on Friday, but the Blazers have played well enough as of late (eighth in net rating over their last 15 games) to be favored to make the postseason.

Philadelphia 76ers

Philadelphia won two of three meetings with the Magic in the regular season, and it may be able to survive at home in the No. 8 vs. No. 7 game on Wednesday night. Oddsmakers have set the Sixers as favorites in the opening odds, though that could change by the time the game tips off.

The loss of Embiid is hard to overlook, and both Philly and Orlando could be vulnerable against a Charlotte team that has been one of the best in the NBA in the second half of the season. I’d stay away from the Sixers at this price, especially since they’re just a pick’em in the first play-in game.

Charlotte Hornets

Can the Hornets come through as underdogs and make the playoffs?

Charlotte is a 5.5-point home favorite in the No. 10 vs. No. 9 game against Miami, a team that it beat on March 17 after losing the first three meetings between these squads.

After a slow start to the season, the Hornets finished the regular season at eighth in the NBA in net rating, posting the second-best net rating in the NBA after the All-Star break while winning 18 of 27 games.

During the regular season, the Hornets went 3-1 against Orlando and 1-2 against Philly. If they get out of the first play-in game, the Hornets may be favored in the second play-in matchup, and they’re by far the best value bet to make the final playoff field.

Los Angeles Clippers

Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers completely flipped the script after a 6-21 start to the regular season, finishing 42-40.

However, two brutal losses to Portland over the final few weeks of the regular season knocked the Clippers back into the No. 9 spot. They’re underdogs to make the playoffs, though I think they have the highest ceiling of any West team in the play-in tournament.

L.A. is favored against Golden State in the No. 10 vs. No. 9 game on Wednesday, and it could end up being favored against Portland if that is the matchup on Friday for the No. 8 seed. Still, it’s worth noting that the Clips split their four meetings with both Phoenix and Portland during the regular season.

The Clippers are 16th in the NBA in net rating, which is behind other play-in teams like Charlotte, Miami and Phoenix.

Golden State Warriors

Steph Curry is back, but the Golden State Warriors are facing an uphill battle to make the playoffs.

Curry has been on a minutes restriction since returning, and Golden State was 21st in the NBA in net rating since the All-Star break, going 8-19 in 27 games. Curry only played in four of those matchups, with the Warriors posting a 1-3 record – including a loss to the Clippers on Sunday.

There’s a chance Steph goes nuclear to will the Warriors to two wins in a row, but with Moses Moody and Jimmy Butler done for the season, the margin for error for Golden State is extremely slim.

The Warriors are 3.5-point dogs against the Clippers on Wednesday, and they went just 15-26 on the road in the regular season.

Miami Heat

Miami made the playoffs out of the No. 10 seed last season, but it backed into the play-in this season, ranking 20th in net rating over its last 15 games while winning just five of those matchups.

I don’t want to discount Erik Spoelsta – who is one of the best coaches in the NBA – but Miami is facing an uphill battle as a 5.5-point road dog against Charlotte in the first play-in game.

The most damning stat for Miami? The Heat would need to win two road games to make the playoffs, and they went just 17-24 on the road in the regular season. Despite playing at the fastest pace in the league, Miami closed out the campaign ranking 12th in offensive rating, 14th in defensive rating and 13th in net rating.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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