Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Luka Doncic, Cooper Flagg, Hawks-Bucks, Thunder)

Week 4 of the NBA season is coming to a close – it’ll officially wrap up on Tuesday – and there are plenty of teams off to a fast start, including a few in action today in the San Antonio Spurs, Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers.

All of those teams are favored in a nine-game slate, which also features the Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers playing a standalone afternoon matchup, though both Tyrese Haliburton and Joel Embiid have been ruled out.

Still, I have a few best bets for Sunday’s action, as I look to get back in the green after a rough showing last week. There’s still a ton of ball left, and there are few things to know in the NBA over the last 24 hours before diving into Sunday’s action.

Dew’s Review: The Miami Heat are back over .500 this season, winning four games in a row behind some strong play from Giannis Antetokounmpo, Klay Thompson and Bam Adebayo. If there’s one thing you missed last night, it’s this pass from Giannis to play for a corner 3-ball:

BETWEEN HIS OWN LEGS 😲

HOW did Giannis find Klay in the corner?? pic.twitter.com/y2ifH41yTx
— NBA (@NBA) November 15, 2026

The Greek Freak finished with 34 points, 14 rebounds and eight dimes on Saturday night, and Thompson made six more 3s to pace the Heat. Miami (7-6) is still just 18th in net rating and 24th in defensive rating, but it is quietly up to 11th in offensive rating because of this recent surge.

Peter’s Point: There are a lot of interesting matchups on Sunday, but I’m focused on one player for today’s slate. Utah Jazz rookie Darryn Peterson has been forced into a bigger role with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Lauri Markkanen out, and the No. 2 overall pick is thriving. Peterson is averaging 24.4 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game over his last five games, shooting 47.3 percent from the field and 38.6 percent from 3. He has a tough matchup with the Spurs on Sunday, but I’ve been very intrigued by the step forward Peterson has taken as a scorer just a month into his NBA career.

On Sunday, I’m targeting Lakers star Luka Doncic to lead the way in Peter’s Points as one of three different picks.

Peter Dewey NBA Betting Record

2026-27 season record: 33-35 (-6.40 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1654-1563-27 (+23.76 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Luka Doncic OVER 4.5 3-Pointers Made (-116)
Cooper Flagg OVER 11.5 Rebounds and Assists (-121)
Atlanta Hawks-Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline Parlay (-170)

Luka Doncic OVER 4.5 3-Pointers Made (-116)

Doncic is off to an insane start in the 2026-27 season, averaging 38.6 points, 7.5 rebounds and 7.6 assists per game while shooting 48.9 percent from the field and 40.8 percent from 3.

The six-time All-Star is taking 13.4 3-point attempts per game, averaging 5.5 made 3-pointers per night. That volume is unheard of from beyond the arc, and Doncic may see even more shots on Sunday with Austin Reaves sidelined with a heel injury.

The Lakers take on the Phoenix Suns on Sunday afternoon, who have struggled to defend the 3-ball this season. Phoenix ranks 25th in the league in opponent 3s made per game and 26th in opponent 3-point percentage.

That sets up well for Doncic, who has attempted at least 11 3-pointers in 10 of his 11 games, making five or more shots from deep in nine of them. He’s a must-bet in this market just about every night, and the Reaves injury should only encourage Doncic to take more shots on Sunday.

Cooper Flagg OVER 11.5 Rebounds and Assists (-121)

Dallas Mavericks star Cooper Flagg is off to a fast start this season, averaging 24.1 points, 7.0 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game. He’s averaging 11.8 potential assists and 12.3 rebound chances per game.

So, I don’t mind taking Flagg to clear 11,5 rebounds and assists in a bit of a homecoming game for the Maine native against the Boston Celtics on Sunday.

The Mavs are playing the second night of a back-to-back, so there’s a chance Kyrie Irving sits out this matchup. That would lead to a bigger on-ball role than normal for Flagg, who is already averaging over 13 rebounds and assists per night.

Over his last 10 games, Flagg has 12 or more rebounds and assists in eight of them, giving him a really solid floor when it comes to this prop.

Atlanta Hawks-Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline Parlay (-170)

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have lost back-to-back games, but they’re in a favorable spot against a Milwaukee team that has just one win all season on Sunday.

The Bucks have lost nine games in a row, and they rank dead last in the NBA in net rating (minus-14.2) while posting the No. 28 offense and the No. 28 defense. The Bucks don’t make sense as a team, as they have a lot of veterans that are past their primes around a couple of intriguing young pieces.

After the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade, the team lacks a star player, and it should struggle – even at home – against this Hawks team.

Atlanta is 15th in the league in net rating, and while it may need more from Jalen Johnson to truly become a title contender, it is loaded with elite wing defenders, helping it post the No. 12 defensive rating in the league.

Not only are the Bucks on a massive losing streak, but they’ve covered in just five of their 13 games. I’m buying Atlanta to snap this two-game skid on Sunday.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The 2026-27 season has been a tough one for the Oklahoma City Thunder, as they’ve lost Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace to injuries and now have Ajay Mitchell listed as questionable for Sunday night’s matchup with the Sacramento Kings.

Despite that, I’m still taking OKC to win this matchup, as the Kings are just 1-11 and have lost five games in a row. Sacramento ranks 29th in net rating, 27th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating through 12 games, and it doesn’t have a ton of exciting pieces on the roster outside of rookie guard Darius Acuff Jr.

The Thunder have lost three games in a row to slip to 8-5 this season, but two of those came against Portland (a playoff-caliber team in the West) before the Thunder lost by one on the road against the Los Angeles Clippers with Mitchell sidelined.

I’m going to buy low with this OKC team, which still ranks 11th in the NBA in net rating and fifth in defensive rating. The Kings have shown time and time again this season that they are not anywhere near a playoff contender, and I expect a motivated Thunder team on Sunday after a tough loss to L.A.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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