Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Luka Doncic, Timberwolves-Pistons, Wemby)

Thursday’s NBA action is all about the MVP race.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains a -300 favorite to win his second MVP in a row, but he has a showdown with Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic (third in the odds to win MVP at +1500) on Thursday night. On top of that, Victor Wembanyama (+220 to win MVP) is also in action on the second night of a back-to-back against the Los Angeles Clippers.

So, it’s only right that we bet on a few of these candidates in the prop market.

Doncic and Wembanyama are two of my favorite player prop picks, but I’m also eyeing a side in three different games on Thursday. That includes the marquee matchup between the Detroit Pistons and Minnesota Timberwolves, as the Pistons look to stay afloat without Cade Cunningham (collapsed lung).

After going 2-for-2 last night, I’m looking to pick up a sweep once again with six games that all have playoff or play-in implications on April 2.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 231-188 (+6.26 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1522-1425-27 (+39.41 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Victor Wembanyama OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-129)
Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 (-115) vs. Detroit Pistons
Luka Doncic OVER 31.5 Points (-116)
Cleveland Cavaliers-Portland Trail Blazers Moneyline Parlay (-143)

Victor Wembanyama OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-129)

Wembanyama has turned in back-to-back insane double-doubles, putting up 41 points and 16 rebounds in a win over the Chicago Bulls and 41 points and 18 rebounds in Wednesday’s win over the Golden State Warriors.

The Spurs star has now picked up at least 12 boards in eight of his last 10 games, including five games in a row with 15 or more rebounds.

He’s taking on a Los Angeles Clippers team that is 20th in the NBA in rebound percentage this season, so I’d expect another huge game on the glass for the former No. 1 overall pick. Wemby had 13 rebounds against the Clippers back on March 16, and he needed just 21:33 to grab 10 boards against them on March 6.

With Ivica Zubac no longer with the Clippers, and rookie Yanic Konan Niederhauser out, Wemby should have a field day on the glass on Thursday.

Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 (-115) vs. Detroit Pistons

The Detroit Pistons are 6-2 straight up since Cade Cunningham went down with a collapsed lung, but they have a tough test against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday.

Minnesota is coming off a blowout win against Dallas in Anthony Edwards’ return to action, and the star guard scored 17 points in just over 22 minutes of action. I’d expect a bigger role for Edwards in what should be a close game on Thursday, which has led me towards the Wolves as 3.5-point underdogs.

Detroit has been one of the best home teams (record wise) in the NBA this season, but it’s just 15-18 against the spread when favored. Now, the Pistons did blow out the Edwards-less Timberwolves in Minnesota, so there is some risk involved here with such a short line.

Still, Minnesota is a .500 team when it comes to covering the spread as a road underdog, and Edwards adds a major punch to this offense, which scored just 87 points in the loss to Detroit in late March.

The Pistons have some offensive holes without Cunningham, and I think this is a spot to sell high against another playoff-caliber team.

Luka Doncic OVER 31.5 Points (-116)

Luka Doncic had one of the best months of any player in the 2025-26 season, averaging 37.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game after dropping 42 points in a win over Cleveland on Tuesday.

Doncic has scored 32 or more points in 11 of his last 13 games, and he hasn’t scored less than 30 points in a game since March 5.

The Thunder have the No. 1 defense in the NBA, and they held Doncic to just 19 points in a game earlier this season, but I have a hard time passing up the Lakers star at a number that is below his season average (33.8 points per game).

Doncic leads the NBA in free throws per game and field goal attempts (23.0) per game, giving him a really solid floor when it comes to this prop. In a potential Western Conference Finals preview, I’ll bet on Doncic rising to the occasion for the Lakers.

Cleveland Cavaliers-Portland Trail Blazers Moneyline Parlay (-143)

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have been awful against the spread this season, but I like them to win this game against Golden State on Thursday.

The Warriors are now 13-24 straight up without Steph Curry in the lineup, and they are an NBA-worst 3-7 against the spread when set as home underdogs.

The Cavs have a chance to gain some ground in the East with a win, as the New York Knicks have dropped three of four games, putting Cleveland just 1.5 games out of the No. 3 seed.

Golden State’s offense has fallen off a cliff without Curry (averaging just 109.2 points per game), and it is on short rest after losing to San Antonio on Wednesday.

Over their last 10 games, the Warriors are just 20th in the NBA in net rating (-7.2), making them a tough team to trust to cover against a potential title contender.

Portland Trail Blazers

The Trail Blazers have a ton to play for on Thursday, as a win and a Clippers loss would move them into the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference.

Portland has taken two of the first three meetings this season with the New Orleans Pelicans, and it’s heavily favored at home in this matchup with New Orleans nursing a five-game losing streak.

The Pelicans have turned their season around a bit – getting to 25 wins – but they’re just 9-28 on the road and 9-41 straight up against teams that are .500 or better.

That sets up well for the Blazers, who are four games over .500 at home and 24-7 against teams that are under .500 this season.

Portland has been rolling down the stretch of the regular season, ranking fourth in the NBA in net rating (+11.5) over its last 10 games. I love this price for the Blazers to win on Thursday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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