Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Magic vs. Pistons)

Two intriguing No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchups take place in the NBA Playoffs on Wednesday night, and you know that I’m here to bet on it!

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder dominated the Phoenix Suns in Game 1 on Sunday, allowing just 84 points in a 35-point win. OKC has swept its first-round opponent in back-to-back postseasons, and it appears to be well on its way to another one in 2026.

In the Eastern Conference, Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic shocked the Detroit Pistons in Game 1, winning 112-101. Orlando fell short of preseason expectations in the regular season, but suddenly it has a real chance to knock off Cade Cunningham and company in the first round.

The Pistons are looking for their first home playoff win since the 2008 Eastern Conference Finals and they’re favored to get it done on Wednesday.

But, should we bet on them to make it happen?

I’m eyeing a couple of plays for Wednesday’s two-game slate, including a pick for SGA is his second postseason game in 2026.

Let’s dive into the odds and analysis behind each of today’s NBA Best Bets!

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 262-224 (-1.07 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1553-1462-27 (+32.08 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 5.5 Assists (-154)
Orlando Magic +9.5 (-108) vs. Detroit Pistons

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 5.5 Assists (-154)

Even though he struggled shooting the ball in OKC’s Game 1 win, Gilgeous-Alexander still was an impact passer for the Thunder, dishing out seven assists. He’s now picked up at least six dimes in five consecutive games.

During the regular season, SGA had six, eight and eight assists in his games against the Suns, so I’m not all that worried about Phoenix ranking seventh in the NBA in opponent assists per game. With OKC fully healthy, SGA has plenty of options to target as a passer.

He averaged 6.6 assists per game during the regular season, and it’s worth noting that he recorded 15.0 potential assists in Game 1, even though he played just 29:11 in the win.

I think this line had moved down way too low for the MVP favorite in Game 2.

Orlando Magic +9.5 (-108) vs. Detroit Pistons

The Magic shocked the basketball world – myself included – with their Game 1 upset, and I can’t get behind Detroit as a near double-digit favorite in Game 2.

Yes, the Pistons completely outclassed Orlando in the regular season, ranking second in the NBA in both net rating and defensive rating, but the playoffs are a different animal, especially on the offensive end.

It was extremely evident that the Pistons lacked shot creation with Cade Cunningham in the game, and they only scored 101 points with the star guard logging 40:18 of action. The Pistons simply don’t have a secondary ball-handler that can create shots for himself and others, and the Magic completely neutralized Jalen Duren in Game 1.

I expect the Pistons to respond in Game 2, but I don’t think they’re winning this game by 10 or more points. During the regular season, Detroit was just 17-18 against the spread as a home favorite, and I don’t know how this offense gets easy looks against an Orlando defense that looked to be at the level it was in previous seasons when it was a top-10 unit in the league.

The Magic have not been healthy for most of the season, but when they have Paolo Banchero, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black an in the rotation, they are a bigger team with a lot of scoring options.

Orlando may lose Game 2, but it’s worth noting that Detroit hasn’t won a home playoff game as a franchise since the 2008 Eastern Conference Finals. I think Orlando hangs around enough in this matchup to cover the 9.5-point spread.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $300 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet and that bet wins.

Add us as a preferred source on Google