Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Steph Curry, Lakers-Bucks, Celtics-Raptors)

Wednesday night in the NBA features the biggest slate of the week, as 20 teams are set to take the court, and there are a few marquee matchups that I’ll have my eye on, including a rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks:

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks
Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers

Tuesday's action produced a Boston blowout in the Jayson Tatum vs. Jaylen Brown rivalry, and the Celtics are one of several teams playing the second night of a back-to-back on Wednesday. I’m looking to get back on track after a rough couple of days to open the week, which has taken this season’s record back into the red.

Dew’s Review: Maybe the Jaylen Brown trade wasn’t a major downgrade for Boston? The Celtics are the No. 1 team in the Eastern Conference at 9-2, and Paul George looked like the best player on the floor in Boston’s blowout over Philly on Tuesday. Joe Mazzulla’s teams have always racked up a ton of regular-season wins, and George looks comfortable in this system. Health is always going to be a concern with the star wing, but he and Tatum are a formidable duo that should keep Boston in the mix for one of the best records in the NBA.

Peter’s Point: There are a lot of great games to watch on Wednesday, but my eyes have gravitated to Housto, where Kevin Durant and the Rockets (8-3) take on the hottest team in the NBA in the Golden State Warriors. Steph Curry and Co. have won eight games in a row, and they’re set as 6.5-point underdogs in this matchup. The Warriors have suddenly put themselves in the playoff conversation, and it’ll be interesting to see how they stack up against a Houston team that is near the top of the odds to win the NBA Finals. Both of these teams are in the top-five in the league in net rating and offensive rating through the first three weeks of the season.

There’s one familiar play that I’m taking on Tuesday, but I also have a couple of player props, including one for Curry, who may be a little undervalued against this Houston defense.

Let’s jump right into the analysis behind these bets – and the latest odds – for Nov. 11.

Peter Dewey NBA Betting Record

2026-27 season record: 30-32 (-5.92 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1651-1560-27 (+24.25 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Boston Celtics First Half -3.5 (-110) vs. Toronto Raptors
Mikal Bridges UNDER 9.5 Points (-112)
Los Angeles Lakers -12.5 (-110) vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Steph Curry 25+ Points (-160)

Boston Celtics First Half -3.5 (-110) vs. Toronto Raptors

For the second night in a row, I’m taking Boston to cover the spread in the first half – even on the second night of a back-to-back.

The C’s didn’t have to play their starters down the stretch of Tuesday’s blowout of the 76ers, which bodes well for Tatum’s chances of playing in this matchup. Plus, the Raptors have ruled out both Kawhi Leonard and Scottie Barnes, putting them in a tough spot to win this game – even at home.

Over the last few seasons, Boston has been one of the best teams in the NBA against the spread in the first half, and the C’s currently have the best first-half net rating in the NBA (plus-23.3) after easily covering against Philly on Tuesday.

Celtics First Half ATS Record

2026-27 season: 8-3 (+4.55 units)
2025-26 season: 53-31-1 (+17.05 units)
2024-25 season: 48-45-0 (-4.35 units)
2023-24 season: 66-34-1 (+26.05 units)

Toronto has a minus-0.8 net rating in the first half this season, and I’m worried about this team keeping pace offensively with both Barnes and Leonard sidelined. In addition to that, starting point guard Immanuel Quickley is questionable with a hamstring injury.

Boston is No. 3 in offensive rating, No. 3 in defensive rating and No. 1 in net rating in the 2026-27 season. Since the C’s didn’t play a taxing game on Tuesday after going on a major run to open the fourth quarter, I’d expect them to be relatively healthy in this matchup. I think this line is low enough in the first half to buy Boston.

Mikal Bridges UNDER 9.5 Points (-112)

New York Knicks wing Mikal Bridges has been in a massive slump to open the 2026-27 season, and I can’t trust him at this number on Wednesday against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Knicks are playing the second night of a back-to-back, and they may get Josh Hart (questionable last night before getting ruled out) back in the lineup on Wednesday.

That could cut into Bridges’ minutes, and the former Villanova star is shooting just 32.9 percent from the field and 26.5 percent from 3-point range this season. That’s led to Bridges averaging just 6.3 points per game, and he’s scored 10 or more points just twice.

Bridges’ season high this season is just 12 points.

He finished with nine points on 13 shots in a win over the Cavs the last time these teams faced off, and he’s scored seven or fewer points in seven of his 10 games. I’m fading Bridges until he shows any sign of life on offense, especially since he’s taking just 7.6 shots per game.

Los Angeles Lakers -12.5 (-110) vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Luka Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers are 9-3 against the spread and 10-2 straight up in the 2026-27 season, holding the top spot in the Western Conference ahead of Wednesday’s meeting with the struggling Milwaukee Bucks.

This is the second night of a back-to-back for Milwaukee, which was blown out by New York on Tuesday without guard Tyler Herro in action. If Herro sits again on Wednesday, the Bucks could be in serious trouble against the No. 1 offense in the NBA.

L.A. has won six games in a row, and it can score with any team in the league. Meanwhile, the Bucks are 27th in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating, which has led to them covering the spread in just three of their 11 games.

Milwaukee has just one win in the 2026-27 season, and it’s lost by 13 or more points five times, including in three games in a row. The Bucks’ net rating is a shocking minus-14.7 (29th in the league).

With the Lakers entering this game with a rest advantage, I don’t mind laying the points with their elite offense, even on the road.

Steph Curry 25+ Points (-160)

Steph Curry’s 2026-27 season is off to a thrilling start, as he’s averaging 30.6 points per game while shooting 50.3 percent from the field and 45.7 percent from beyond the arc.

The two-time league MVP hasn't played a ton of minutes this season, but he’s been the clear go-to option for the Warriors, especially during this eight-game winning streak. Steph has 25 or more points in six straight games and has scored at least 23 points every one of his matchups.

That gives him a really solid floor against a Houston defense that is one of the best in the NBA (ninth in defensive rating), yet it’s allowing over 27 points per game to opposing point guards.

The Warriors (No. 2 in offensive rating) have been rolling on offense, and the addition of Yaxel Lendeborg seems to have opened up more lanes for Curry to score.

Steph is taking 17.4 shots, 10.2 3-pointers and 8.4 free-throws per game this season. With this line well below his season average, I think he’s worth a shot on Wednesday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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