Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Victor Wembanyama, Steph Curry, Cavs, Pacers-Mavs)

Monday wraps up the third week of the 2026-27 NBA season, and there are some intriguing star players in action, including Steph Curry, Cade Cunningham, Victor Wembanyama and hopefully Luka Doncic after he sat out Sunday’s win over Detroit with a back injury.

There are several teams playing the second night of a back-to-back on Monday, including the Detroit Pistons, Los Angeles Lakers, New Orleans Pelicans and Dallas Mavericks. That could change how we go about this slate, especially if some star players end up sitting out.

Plus, there are four favorites of more than eight points, which brings us to a very interesting trend to examine in today’s “Dew’s Review.”

Dew’s Review: Want a crazy stat? NBA underdogs of eight or more points are 0-36 straight up in the 2026-27 season. Philadelphia, Dallas, Boston, Minnesota and Miami all won as 7.5-point favorites or more on Sunday, and there are a bunch of big favorites on Monday night. I also have to mention the now 9-2 Los Angeles Lakers, who are in first place in the Western Conference and rode a huge Austin Reaves game with Luka Doncic (back) sidelined to beat the Detroit Pistons and their No. 1 defense. So far, so good with the L.A. offseason building this team around Doncic and Reaves.

Peter’s Point: Will Steph Curry and the Warriors keep it going? Golden State has won seven games in a row and is 5-1 at home heading into Monday’s game against the New Orleans Pelicans, who are playing the second night of a back-to-back. Curry and Co. rank sixth in the NBA in offensive rating this season, and they’ve covered the spread in seven of 10 games. It may be possible for this team to stay afloat in the West long enough for Jimmy Butler to return and make a real push for a top-six seed in the second half of the season.

Sunday’s edition of Peter’s Points was a success, as our three-time moneyline parlay hit with relative ease and Darius Acuff Jr. had six dimes in the first half – finishing with 10 – to hit his prop against the Miami Heat.

So, let’s keep the momentum going now that I’m back in the green for the 2026-27 season. I’m eyeing four plays on Monday, including a bet for San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama.

Peter Dewey NBA Betting Record

2026-27 season record: 29-25 (+0.21 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1650-1553-27 (+30.38 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Cleveland Cavaliers + San Antonio Spurs Moneyline Parlay (-160)
Indiana Pacers vs. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 223.5 (-108)
Victor Wembanyama OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-114)
Steph Curry OVER 4.5 Assists (-132)

Cleveland Cavaliers + San Antonio Spurs Moneyline Parlay (-160)

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs are off to a 5-5 start this season, and they are just 16th in the league in net rating. It’s certainly not what Kenny Atkinson wanted to see from his team after an Eastern Conference Finals appearance in the 2025-26 campaign, but the Cavs are in a great spot on the road against the Charlotte Hornets on Monday.

Charlotte has taken a major step back with LaMelo Ball now in Minnesota, ranking dead last in the league in offensive rating while averaging just 96.3 points per game. The Hornets are also short-handed on Monday, as Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, Grant Williams and Dennis Schroder have all been ruled out.

That’s extremely damaging to a Charlotte offense that has lacked any consistent scoring after Miller in the 2026-27 season.

So, the Cavs, who still have Donovan Mitchell, James Harden and Evan Mobley – Jarrett Allen is questionable – should be able to pick up their sixth win of the season.

Cleveland remains a top-10 offense in the 2026-27 season, and the Hornets simply lack the scoring punch to trust them in this game.

San Antonio Spurs

Can the Spurs win a ninth game in a row on Monday?

San Antonio is a massive favorite on the road against the Phoenix Suns, and it should be able to take care of business with most of the rotation expected to play (Tobias Harris is out and Devin Vassell is questionable).

The Suns have really struggled in the 2026-27 season, ranking 27th in defensive rating, 23rd in net rating and they’ve won just three of eight games. The Suns are on a two-game winning streak, but they aren’t on the same level as this Spurs team that has the third-best net rating in the NBA (plus-10.1) in the 2026-27 season.

San Antonio should be able to attack the paint with Mark Williams (shoulder) still out for the Suns, and Phoenix only has one really impressive win – against Houston – in the 2026-27 campaign.

The Suns are also just 2-6 against the spread, failing to cover in five of their six games as underdogs. I’ll gladly take the Spurs to extend their winning streak on Monday night.

Indiana Pacers vs. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 223.5 (-108)

This season, the Indiana Pacers and Dallas Mavericks have been two of the best UNDER teams in the league, which makes sense with Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) still sidelined for Indy.

Dallas is playing the second night of a back-to-back, so it wouldn’t be shocking if All-Star guard Kyrie Irving (knee) ended up sitting out this game. Since Dallas is such a small favorite at home, I would expect at least a couple players to pop up on the injury report.

This Indiana offense isn’t nearly as lethal with Haliburton sidelined, and the Pacers are 22nd in the league in both offensive rating and points per game this season. Dallas (13th in offensive rating) has a top-10 defensive rating in the 2026-27 season, and it’s just 20th in the league in pace.

The Pacers may try to play uptempo in this game, but they’ve hit the UNDER in seven of their 10 games.

Dallas has done so even more (eight of 10 games), and it has failed to clear 223.5 combined points in six games this season. It did combine for 226 points against the Pacers earlier this season, but Haliburton played in that game. In fact, the Mavs have gone UNDER this number in six of their last seven games and are allowing just 109.1 points per game this season.

I think the UNDER is a great bet with Haliburton out of the lineup.

Victor Wembanyama OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-114)

This season, Victor Wembanyama is averaging 12.0 rebounds on 22.8 rebound chances per game, and he has a great matchup against the Suns on Monday night.

Phoenix is dead last in the NBA in rebound percentage and 25th in opponent rebounds per game through the first few weeks of the season. The Suns have lost starting center Mark Williams to open the year, and Khaman Malauch and Oso Ighodaro simply haven’t been good enough on the boards.

Wemby has 12 or more rebounds in five of his 10 games in the 2026-27 season, though he does have three games with less than 10 rebounds. If the Spurs get up big, there’s a chance the MVP candidate sits quite a bit in this game, as he’s played less than 30 minutes in three of his four games this month.

Still, the fact that Wembanayma is averaging well over 20 rebound chances per game gives him an extremely high floor when it comes to this market. I’ll take him to dominate this Suns team that is allowing nearly 17 rebounds per game to the center position this season.

Steph Curry OVER 4.5 Assists (-132)

Golden State Warriors superstar Stephen Curry is off to a great start scoring the ball, averaging 31.3 points per game while shooting 49.7 percent from the field and 44.7 percent from 3.

While I could take a scoring prop for Curry against the New Orleans Pelicans, I actually think he’s undervalued as a passer on Monday.

The two-time league MVP is averaging 4.6 assists per game, but he’s picked up six or more dimes in four of his last five matchups. Overall, Curry is averaging just 7.9 potential assists per game, but that number has jumped up after a slow start to the season.

New Orleans is 25th in the NBA in opponent assists per game, so this is a pretty favorable matchup for Steph as he looks to build on an impressive start to the campaign.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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