New England Patriots Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Patriots Will Regress)

The 2025 NFL campaign was a dream season for the New England Patriots all the way up until the Super Bowl.

Many people believed they'd improve after going 4-13 in 2024, but few people expected them to go 14-3 and win both the AFC East and the AFC. Unfortunately, things came crashing down in the Super Bowl when they lost 29-13 to the Seattle Seahawks in a game that was more dominant than the final score indicates.

The question heading into the 2026 season is whether or not they'll be able to repeat their success from last year. It's not rare to see a team that goes from one of the worst to one of the best in a single year, and then see some regression.

Let's take a look at their win projection for this year, and then I'll give you my thoughts.

2026 New England Patriots Win Projected

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 10.5 (+115)
UNDER 10.5 (-140)

In order to evaluate the Patriots this season, we have to look at what went right for them last year. There's no denying that Drake Maye has proved to be a franchise quarterback and a top 10 player at his position, but it also has to be said that the Patriots had one of the easiest schedules in NFL history. Their opponents had a combined record of 113-176, a win percentage of .391. That was the softest schedule based on opponents' combined win percentage since the 1999 St. Louis Rams.

On top of their easy schedule, they also went 7-3 in one-score games. This year, not only do they play a first-place schedule, but it'll be tough to repeat a similar record in one-score games.

There are also other question marks surrounding their roster. Is A.J. Brown's talent going to outweigh his locker room personality that plagued Philadelphia? Can they get better play on the offensive line from Will Campbell? Will they manage to get any sort of pass rush?

There are too many questions surrounding this team for me to trust them to repeat as AFC champions. They're not going to regress to what they were two seasons ago, but instead of battling for the No. 1 seed in the conference this season, I envision them battling for a wild-card playoff spot.

This seems like the next example of a team that got too good too quickly and will see some level of regression the year after having a season where everything went right. With their win total set at 10.5, I'll bet the UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 10.5 (-140) via DraftKings

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