New Orleans Saints Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Don't Believe the Hype)

The New Orleans Saints got off to a disastrous start to their 2025 season, going 2-10 through their first 12 games, but then finished as one of the hottest teams in the league, going 4-1 in their last five. The hot streak to close out the year, which included rookie quarterback Tyler Shough looking like a future franchise player, has people curious about this team heading into the 2026 season.

The NFC South is completely up for grabs for all four teams. Can the Saints take a step forward and be the team that comes out on top? Let's find out what the betting market thinks and dive into their projected win total for the 2026 NFL season.

2026 New Orleans Saints Projected Win Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 7.5 Wins (-120)
UNDER 7.5 Wins (+100)

The Saints' projected win total is set at 7.5 for the 2026 season, with the OVER juiced to -120. That means there's an implied probability of 54.55% that they'll go 8-9 or better.

In my NFL season betting preview, I broke down why I'm not buying the hype and am instead going to bet the UNDER on their win total:

Every season, there's a bad team that catches fire in the last handful of weeks and then convinces everyone it's a dark-horse playoff team the next season. This year's version of that team is the New Orleans Saints. Forgive me if I'm not impressed by beating the Buccaneers, Panthers, Jets, and Titans in four of their last five games. They also lost to the Falcons (twice) and the Dolphins in their seven games after their BYE.

Now, because Tyler Shough looked decent against terrible opponents, their win total deserves to be set at 7.5? Give me a break. The Saints did nothing to improve a defense that ranked 27th in DVOA last season, and their offense still has plenty of question marks. I'm selling any stock I had in the Saints.

Pick: UNDER 7.5 Wins (+100) via DraftKings

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