NFC South Odds: Saints Surge to Favorite in Rankings from Oddsmakers Ahead of Week 3

Could there be a worst-to-first team in the NFC South?

Through two weeks of the 2026 NFL season, it appears that is very possible with Tyler Shough, Kellen Moore and the New Orleans Saints jumping into the top spot in the odds to win the division.

New Orleans is off to a 1-1 start, losing in overtime to the Detroit Lions in Week 1 before upsetting the Baltimore Ravens in shocking fashion in Week 2. After going 5-4 with Shough as their starter last season, the Saints appear to have some momentum in the betting market.

“Yeah, for us, it's the Saints by a pretty sizable margin,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated about Fanatics’ thought on the NFC South. “The Saints looked good in their two games. They came out slow in both of them, but they were able to turn the ship around, and against two good teams on the road as well in Detroit and Baltimore.”

Gour mentioned the Buccaneers’ loss to Cleveland crushing the team’s outlook in their power ratings, and the odds reflect that with the Bucs sitting at +330 in the market to win the division. Still, this division is far from wrapped up even though all four teams have some serious flaws.

“The NFC South, that is very competitive,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “We do rate the Saints the best in the division, but not by that much. New Orleans, Carolina, Tampa are still – they're probably within a point and a half of each other on the power ratings. So it's really close there.”

Even though the Saints aren’t considered a much better team by DraftKings, they are still +120 to win the division while the Panthers (second) sit at +250.

NFC South Odds for 2026 Season

New Orleans Saints: +120
Carolina Panthers: +250
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +330
Atlanta Falcons: +750

Not every book is all in on the Saints through the first two weeks, though, a sign that the Buccaneers or the defending NFC South champion Panthers could finish the season in first place.

“While the Saints have not yet climbed to the top of our NFC South power rankings, they have undoubtedly been one of the most impressive teams through the first two weeks of the season,” Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated.

The Panthers and Falcons are the only NFC South teams to play a division game – Carolina dominated that matchup – so it’s hard to really take stock in how the top-three candidates to win the division stack up.

“If I had to guess I'd say this division will come down to the last two weeks and three teams will be alive,” Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager at BetMGM, told Sports Illustrated. “Panthers, Saints and Bucs are all similarly rated. Bucs of course can bounce back, but the Saints and Panthers have both shown a lot of things to like so far.”

Shough and Bryce Young have both impressed early in the season with Shough leading multiple major comebacks and Young throwing six scores in two games. They are No. 7 (Carolina) and No. 12 (New Orleans) in the NFL in EPA/Play on offense.

While the Atlanta Falcons are viewed as an extreme long shot in the NFC South race, the return of Michael Penix Jr. for Week 3 (Thursday night against Green Bay) could end up impacting these odds as well.

The Falcons looked awful with Cooper Rush under center, but oddsmakers view Penix as the clear top option in the Atlanta quarterback room. As a result, the Falcons have moved from seven-point underdogs in Week 3 to just 4.5-point underdogs with kickoff approaching.

“I think he's the best option for them,” Avello said of Penix. “He was the best option, probably, going into the season. The bettors just feel that it's probably a good spot for them.”

No division race is ever wrapped up after two weeks, but it’s interesting to see just how much the odds have shifted from before the season when Tampa Bay was the clear favorite.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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