NFL Fraud Rankings: Top 5 Most Overrated Teams Ahead of Week 9

There's nothing I love more than finding a team that's overrated both in the betting market and in public opinion, and then putting my money where my mouth is by betting against them in several different ways. Each season, I like to take time out of my schedule once every few weeks to break down who I think are the top five most fraudulent teams in the league.

It's long overdue for my first edition of the fraud ranking for the 2026 season. We're going to be halfway through the season at the end of Week 9, so let's break down the top five most overrated teams at this point in the year.

NFL Week 9 Fraud Rankings

All odds listed are via DraftKings Sportsbook

5) Buffalo Bills

Super Bowl Odds: +600
Odds to Win Division: -300
Odds to Make Playoffs: -2500
Win Total: 11.5 (Over -122/Under +102)

This is going to be my most controversial team on this list, but hear me out. First of all, I realize that they have Josh Allen, the rightful MVP favorite, and he's able to help lift this team over most of their shortcomings.

With that being said, I can't look past how bad this defense is. They have given up 5.4 yards per play, and they rank 27th in opponent EPA per play and 29th in opponent success rate. They've also given up a blistering 25.9 points per game.

That bad of a defense isn't going to hurt them too much against inferior teams, as their offense is good enough to rack up enough points that it won't matter, but once they get to the postseason, winning three or four games in a row in which Allen and the offense will have to play mistake-free football to win is going to be a big ask.

Their defense is going to cost them points this season, and it will ultimately be what prevents them from winning the Super Bowl once again.

4) Chicago Bears

Super Bowl Odds: +750
Odds to Win Division: +164
Odds to Make Playoffs: -700
Win Total: 11.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

I was low on the Bears this season and had bet on them to make the playoffs. To a certain extent, I was wrong about them. Caleb Williams has looked far better this season, and Ben Johnson is the real deal.

With that being said, they aren't a Super Bowl contender or as good as people think they are. They've had the ninth-easiest schedule so far this season, and they rank just 23rd in the NFL in net yards per play at -0.6. They're outside the top 10 in almost every defensive metric, and I have some real concerns about their ability to beat the elite teams in the NFL. They've beaten the two Super Bowl teams from a year ago, but it's clear that both the Patriots and Seahawks aren't the teams they were a year ago.

Two games against the Lions, a game against the Jaguars, a road rematch against the Packers, and a road game against the Bills are all going to be measuring sticks for them in the final stretch of the season.

3) Minnesota Vikings

Super Bowl Odds: +2200
Odds to Win Division: Vikings +200
Odds to Make Playoffs: -400
Win Total: 11.5 (OVER +105/UNDER -126)

The Vikings would be further up the list, but I don't think there are many people out there who truly believe they're a top team in the NFL. There's no question their defense is elite, but when you can't move the ball offensively, there's only so much you can do. The Vikings' offense is 30th in EPA per play, 31st in success rate, and they're averaging only 4.7 yards per snap, which is 29th in the league.

The Vikings got to play against two of the worst defenses in the league in the previous two weeks, the Colts and the Lions, and they couldn't manage to score more than 16 points against either of them. That's a bad sign for them moving forward.

As good as the Minnesota defense has been, it's worth noting that they rank first in defensive luck rate according to RBSDM.com. If their luck on defense runs out and teams start to be able to put up points against them, I wouldn't be surprised if they implode and end up missing the playoffs entirely.

2) New York Giants

Super Bowl Odds: +6500
Odds to Win Division: -150
Odds to Make Playoffs: -160
Win Total: 8.5 (Over +126/Under -152)

The New York Giants may end up winning the NFC East due to the rest of the division being awful, but you're not going to find me claiming that they're a legitimate contending team this season.

This team is just 14th in the league in EPA per play and 17th in opponent EPA per play. They're around the middle of the pack in success rate metrics as well. Net yards per play echoes the same sentiment, as they rank 18th in the league at -0.1.

The biggest piece of evidence supporting their fraudulent nature is their strength of schedule so far this season. They have had the third-easiest schedule through the first eight weeks, with zero games against teams currently in a playoff spot. Their toughest game came against the Rams, and it ended with them on the wrong end of a blowout.

They have some tough games coming up against the likes of the Jaguars and 49ers, and I fully expect them to get exposed as the bad team that they are.

1) Denver Broncos

Super Bowl Odds: +1600
Odds to Win Division: -130
Odds to Make Playoffs: -1100
Win Total: 11.5 (Over -122/Under +102)

I'll start with some positive things about the Denver Broncos. They've had the toughest schedule so far this season, and their defense remains one of the most elite units in the NFL.

With that being said, if you've watched their games this season, you shouldn't be surprised by their No. 1 rating on this list. The Broncos have now won 15 straight regular-season one-score games, a statistical anomaly in the NFL where one-score games typically come down to a bad penalty here, a turnover there, and other chaotic variance. For the Broncos to win 15 straight of them is an undeniable sign that they have had the football gods on their side.

No team should be able to win this often with a quarterback like Bo Nix as their starter. He enters Week 9 ranking just 21st in adjusted EPA per play and 29th in completion percentage over expected, which is worse than the likes of Cam Ward, Deshaun Watson, and Tyler Shough, and just one spot above Daniel Jones.

Denver is also 22nd in the league in net yards per play (-0.3), and its offense is 29th in the league in success rate.

The Broncos should still be able to take care of business against inferior opponents, but this simply isn't a Super Bowl-winning team, and I envision a one-and-done performance in the postseason unless they fix their offense in a hurry.

Once those one-score games start to flip on them, it's going to get ugly in Denver.

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