NFL MVP Odds: Does Caleb Williams Have a Case? Insight from Oddsmakers on Joe Burrow's Rise

With the NFL nearing the halfway point of the 2026 season, the MVP race is starting to heat up with seven players set at +1700 or better to win the award, including three players – Josh Allen, Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow – all inside 5/1.

Two of the biggest winners in Week 7 of the season were Burrow and Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, as they both shot up the odds board after leading their teams to key wins.

Williams threw for over 300 yards for the second game in a row in a primetime win over the New England Patriots while Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals picked up a huge division win over the Baltimore Ravens.

Ahead of Week 8, Sports Illustrated spoke to several oddsmakers to get an understanding of the latest MVP odds and how Williams and Burrow factor into the current race.

2026 NFL MVP Odds

Josh Allen: +170
Brock Purdy: +350
Joe Burrow: +450
Trevor Lawrence: +1000
Patrick Mahomes: +1500
Drake Maye: +1600
Caleb Williams: +1700
Jared Goff: +2500
Jordan Love: +2800
Lamar Jackson: +4000
Jahmyr Gibbs: +400
Matthew Stafford: +4500
Dak Prescott: +4500
C.J. Stroud: +6500
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: +7500
Bryce Young: +8000
Kenneth Walker III: +9000

Caleb Williams’ MVP Stock Comes With One Concern

Williams’ rise in the MVP odds comes after a strong Week 1 of the 2026 season pushed him to the No. 2 spot in the market. However, he fell off considerably after missing three games with a hamstring injury. Still, bettors are targeting the Bears quarterback even though his counting stats don’t match up to players like Allen and Purdy at this point in the season.

“We definitely are seeing solid play on Williams,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “But we also saw a substantial amount of play on him prior to the season starting, and so the liability is certainly building. The Bears' offense has returned to full strength, so that's giving him a shot to win. And then we're pricing him as a true contender now, at 17/1. Remember, he was the second favorite before the injury, so he was right in the mix. And now that everything's back to normal, he's certainly in that mix again.”

In four games (three that he completed) this season, Williams has thrown for 1,020 yards, five scores and one pick while adding another two scores on the ground. The former No. 1 overall pick has led the Bears to at least 30 points in every game that he’s started and finished.

“He's been our second most popular selection since he came back, only trailing Josh Allen,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “So, he has been hugely popular, and that could be for a variety of reasons, including just him playing for the Chicago Bears, along with their own team success.

“But for a player like him, his resume becomes pretty tough to get near the top, and the reason being is that as good as he may play in 14 games, Josh Allen will likely have a stronger resume in 17 – or whoever the healthy quarterback ends up being that is able to play 17 on a good team that has good numbers.

“So, in order for him to really have a chance at the award, he'd need to have an outstanding 14-game stretch. And he can't really afford to miss another game, so that's also something that is priced in at the minute. So while what he's doing is likely MVP-worthy or near that echelon, it's the fact that he needs to be pretty much perfect.”

Even though Williams’ odds are skyrocketing in this market, there is concern from oddsmakers that he won’t be able to do enough in 14 games to outpace Allen, Purdy or other top contenders in this market.

"Williams’ missed games impact the odds because his raw counting stats at the end of the year will matter to a lot of voters,” a FanDuel trader told Sports Illustrated. “He's been popular since the offseason, but he’s moving up due to the Bears looking better and more likely to be the No. 1 seed."

The great equalizer for Williams would be if the Bears end up with the No. 1 seed ahead of Purdy’s 49ers in the NFC. At 5-2, Chicago is certainly capable of making that happen, and it has a huge primetime matchup with Seattle on tap in Week 8.

Joe Burrow Flipped MVP Odds During Win vs. Ravens

For Burrow, Week 7 was a tale of two halves, as he threw for four scores in a win over Baltimore with almost all of the damage coming in the second half.

That moved Burrow from as long as +1500 to win MVP to his current price of +450 entering Week 8.

“We have this up during the games, and we're constantly adjusting it all day long on a Sunday,” Avello said. “So, Burrow was 10/1 before playing last week, and then he went as high as 15/1 after the first half. And then, with this outstanding second half he had, we moved his current price to +450. You know, he was certainly taking some money at that time.”

This season, Burrow has played in six games, leading the Bengals to a 4-2 record and putting them firmly in the mix to win the AFC North. He’s thrown for 1,653 yards, 15 touchdowns and three picks while completing over 71 percent of his passes.

With Cincy in play to win the division, Burrow could be an inner circle MVP candidate going forward.

"The Bengals beat the Ravens and now have a much better chance at winning the division, which is what drove the majority of Burrow's move,” a FanDuel trader told Sports Illustrated. “He also threw for four touchdowns, which cuts his price as well."

The Bengals have a favorable matchup against a one-win Titans team in Week 8 that should only help Burrow improve on his MVP chances.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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