NFL MVP Odds: Matthew Stafford Jumps Drake Maye for Top Spot After Week 18; Trevor Lawrence Rises

Breaking down the latest odds to win the NFL MVP award in the 2025 season after Week 18.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is the favorite to win the MVP once again. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Matthew Stafford or Drake Maye?

That’s the question that NFL MVP voters will be asking themselves after Week 18, but the betting market has picked a side. 

Stafford, who was the favorite to win the MVP before he turned in a poor showing in Week 17 on Monday Night Football, has reclaimed the top spot in this market. Stafford is now -135 at DraftKings while Maye is +105. 

The New England Patriots star was a massive favorite after Stafford fell short in Week 17, but that has changed after Stafford tossed four scores to lead the Rams to the No. 5 seed in the NFC and a 12-5 record this season. 

Maye and the Patriots are the No. 2 seed in the AFC, finishing the regular season with a 14-3 mark, but they did face the easiest schedule in the NFL, which could sway voters towards Stafford, who threw for 46 scores in the regular season, in this market.

Here’s a look at where the odds stand after Week 18, and the case for the top contenders to win this award. 

Latest Odds to Win NFL MVP in 2025 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Matthew Stafford: -135
• Drake Maye: +105
• Trevor Lawrence: +15000
• Caleb Williams: +25000
• Josh Allen: +30000
• Sam Darnold: +40000
• Bo Nix: +40000
• Christian McCaffrey: +50000
• CJ Stroud: +50000
• Justin Herbert: +50000
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: +50000
• Jalen Hurts: +50000
• Baker Mayfield: +100000

Matthew Stafford Once Again Favored to Win NFL MVP

Stafford did not finish the season atop his division, but he did lead the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns in the regular season, throwing 46 scores to just eight picks.

It’s an insane statistical season, and Stafford did it despite playing over half his games against teams over .500, including potentially nine games against playoff teams (if Baltimore beats Pittsburgh on Sunday night). 

The Rams finished with a 12-5 record and are second in the odds to win the Super Bowl now that they’ll play Carolina in the wild card round of the playoffs. 

The argument for Maye certainly hinges on where his team finished in the standings, but there’s no doubt that Stafford’s passing numbers were superior this season. 

Drake Maye Drops in Latest NFL MVP Odds

Maye and the Patriots cruised to an easy win over Quinn Ewers and the Miami Dolphins in Week 18, and the former first-round pick threw for 191 yards and a score.

It’s not Maye’s fault that he faced an easy schedule, but he did throw for less yards, touchdowns and the same number of picks as Stafford this season despite beating just one playoff team (it could be two if Baltimore wins on Sunday night). 

Maye deserves credit for taking a team that was in last place in the AFC East last season to a 14-3 record and a division title, but oddsmakers seem to think Stafford’s statistical season outweighs the Pats’ record. 

Trevor Lawrence Clear No. 3 in NFL MVP Race

The MVP race is a clear two-man battle, but Trevor Lawrence did solidify himself as the No. 3 option, jumping to +15000 to win the MVP after another dominant Jacksonville Jaguars win in Week 18.

The Jags won the AFC South and Lawrence led them to eight consecutive wins to close out the regular season.

The former No.1 overall pick cleared the 4,000-yard mark this season and finished the campaign with three scores in a blowout win over Tennessee.  

Honorable Mention: I wrote about this on Sunday morning, but Sam Darnold (+40000) deserves some love in the NFL MVP race – even though he shouldn’t win. Darnold did take a team that missed the playoffs last season to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. That is deserving of at least some MVP consideration, even though his numbers don’t line up with Maye and Stafford.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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