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NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl Odds Ahead of Preseason Week 2 (Kyler Murray Impact; AFC Favorite Up in Air)
Week 1 of the NFL preseason is in the books, and we're one step closer to the NFL regular season.
Arguably the biggest news of the last week was the Minnesota Vikings' decision to name Kyler Murray their starting quarterback over youngster J.J. McCarthy, who struggled mightily in the 2025 season. Minnesota's odds have changed slightly since the move, though the team remains +5000 to win Super Bowl LXI.
The top teams in the NFC seems relatively set, as the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks remain in a class of their own in the odds to win the Super Bowl. One could argue -- and I'd agree -- that the Rams (+550) are in a totally different class than the rest of the NFL since no other team has shorter than 10/1 odds to win it all.
The AFC is a lot different, as the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens are co-favorites in the Super Bowl odds (+1000) while the two teams that made the AFC title game in 2025 (Denver and New England) are much further down the odds board. There are a lot of quality teams in the conference, but who should bettors seek out as a value bet ahead of the regular season?
I'll cover that in this edition of SI Betting's NFL Power Rankings, where the premise is pretty simple. Each week, yours truly will rank each team in the NFL based on their odds to win the Super Bowl in the 2026 season. I won't match up with Vegas every week (so you can fade me if you'd like), but the Super Bowl odds are a great way to tell just how good the betting market thinks each team is this season.
The Rams held the top spot in my first ranking of the 2026 season, and they remain there heading into preseason Week 2.
NFL Power Rankings Based on 2026 Super Bowl Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
1. Los Angeles Rams (+550) Last Week: No. 1
The Rams are going to hold the top spot in these rankings unless they deal with a major injury ahead of the regular season, and it's pretty clear this team is all-in to win with Matthew Stafford nearing the end of his career.
If Stafford plays at an MVP level again in 2026, L.A. is going to be a tough team to beat with Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie now added to this defense.
2. Seattle Seahawks (+1100) LW: No. 2
It's hard not to love Seattle's roster entering the 2026 season, but the Seahawks will have a harder schedule after winning the NFC West last season.
Still, I think they're pretty favorably priced in this market (+1100) considering they beat the Rams on multiple occasions, including the NFC title game, last season.
3. Baltimore Ravens (+1000) LW: No. 5
I'm moving Baltimore up this week because of the easy schedule that it is set to face. The Ravens have the fifth-easiest strength of schedule entering 2026, and the AFC North features a bunch of teams with noticeable holes on their rosters.
If Lamar Jackson stays healthy, the Ravens should be in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
4. Buffalo Bills (+1000) LW: No. 4
Buffalo is tied for the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl, and it did add D.J. Moore to improve this offense. First-year head coach Joe Brady has his work cut out for him if he wants to win the AFC, but oddsmakers clearly believe in this team with Josh Allen leading the way.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (+1600) LW: No. 3
The Eagles remain fifth in the odds to win the Super Bowl, and I'll knock them back to the No. 5 spot since I believe Seattle and L.A. are a cut above this season.
Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley both have big seasons ahead, as Philly is going to have a much different offense now that A.J. Brown is with the Patriots.
6. Denver Broncos (+2000) LW: No. 6
Denver is the first team where I really deviate from the odds in these rankings.
One could argue that the Broncos aren't the sixth-best team in the NFL, but these odds (13th in the NFL) are way too low for a team that made the AFC title game last season and returned a ton of the roster while also adding Jaylen Waddle.
Plus, I have to bring this stat up again: The Broncos and Rams were the only teams in the NFL last season that were top 10 in the league in EPA/Play on both offense and defense.
7. New England Patriots (+1600) LW: No. 8
I'm bumping the New England Patriots up a spot, even though they'll have a much tougher schedule in 2026. New England made the Super Bowl last season, and Drake Maye is one of the rising stars in the NFL. After all the Patriots were tied for first in EPA/Play on offense last season.
There's certainly a world where the Patriots beat out the Bills in the AFC East for the second year in a row.
8. Kansas City Chiefs (+1600) LW: No. 7
It's going to take more than one down season (and an injury) for me to count out Patrick Mahomes. Still, the Chiefs have a rather inexperienced defense that will need to prove itself early in the campaign if the Chiefs want to win another Super Bowl.
Mahomes has been an automatic ticket to the AFC title game when healthy, so this is a pretty solid price for K.C. to get back to the top of the NFL this season.
9. Detroit Lions (+1900) LW: No. 9
The Lions are projected to have the easiest schedule in the NFL in the 2026 season, making them an ideal "worst-to-first" candidate in the NFC North.
Detroit still finished the 2025 season ranking sixth in EPA/Play on offense and 13th in EPA/Play on defense.
10. Green Bay Packers (+1800) LW: No. 10
Green Bay has not been able to win the division in the Jordan Love era, but it has consistently been in the mix for a playoff spot.
Matt LaFleur would love to see his team take that next step in a competitive NFC North, but the defense (23rd in EPA/Play last season) has to improve in 2026.
11. San Francisco 49ers (+1900) LW: No. 11
Can this veteran 49ers team stay healthy enough to contend in the NFC?
Oddsmakers view the 49ers as a playoff team, and they survived several key injuries (Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Fred Warner) to make the playoffs and win a postseason game in 2025.
San Francisco has one of the higher ceilings in the NFC.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3000) LW: No. 14
I'm bumping the Jaguars up a couple spots since they're priced all the way down at +3000 to win the Super Bowl. After a strong finish to the 2025 regular season, I think Trevor Lawrence is the best QB in the AFC South, and that could be enough for the Jaguars to beat out Houston for the division title.
Either way, I don't see why Jacksonville should be priced well behind the next two teams on this list...
13. Los Angeles Chargers (+1700) LW: No. 12
Justin Herbert has a 54.7 percent completion percentage, four picks and just two touchdowns in three career playoff games. He's won none of them.
There are a lot of traits to like with the Chargers quarterback, but until he wins on the biggest stage, I can't get behind them at +1700, where they're ahead of Denver, Jacksonville, Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay and others in the latest odds.
14. Houston Texans (+1800) LW: No. 13
Similar to Herbert, C.J. Stroud hasn't exactly thrived in the playoffs in his career.
After a dismal game aganst New England in last year's playoffs, Stroud needs to bounce back for Houston to make the most of a defense that was No. 1 in EPA/Play in 2025.
15. Cincinnati Bengals (+2000) LW: No. 15
The Bengals made some improvements on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, but it won't matter unless Joe Burrow is able to stay healthy.
The Benglas have the second-best odds out of the four teams in the AFC North, and they do have the second-easiest schedule in the NFL in 2026. That should help them at least contend for a playoff spot.
16. Chicago Bears (+2400) LW: No. 16
Ben Johnson said that he wants his team to aim to be the highest-scoring offense of all time, but things will be tougher for the Bears now that they're facing a first-place schedule in 2026.
If you believe in Caleb Williams' talent and progression, then Chicago should still be on your list of teams to bet to make the playoffs.
17. Dallas Cowboys (+2500) LW: No. 17
Dallas is projected to have the fifth-hardest schedule in the NFL this season, and it needs to fix a defense that was 32nd in EPA/Play in the 2025 season.
The Cowboys are pretty high up in the odds for a team that has two playoff wins since the 2016 season.
18. Minnesota Vikings (+5000) LW: No. 19
The Vikings named Kyler Murray the starter this past week, and that should bump them up in the odds to make the playoffs. J.J. McCarthy was awful in 2025, yet Minnesota won six of his 10 starts and ended the 2025 season on a five-game winning streak.
Murray is a definite upgrade to an offense that was just 28th in EPA/Play last season.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5500) LW: No. 18
The Buccaneers remain the first NFC South team in these rankings, but they are 20th in the odds to win the Super Bowl.
Tampa Bay struggled with injuries down the stretch last season and missed the playoffs, but it is favored to win the division in 2026.
20. Indianapolis Colts (+6000) LW: No. 20
Jonathan Taylor is coming off a massive year for the Colts, and he may need to carry the offense again with Daniel Jones coming off a ruptured Achilles.
I'm not nearly as high on Indy after Jones started to fade before the injury last season.
21. Carolina Panthers (+9000) LW: No. 22
The Panthers won the NFC South last season, but they are set to face the third-toughest schedule in the NFL in 2026.
Bryce Young has a real chance to prove he's a franchise quarterback, but it's hard to see the NFC South getting multiple playoff teams in 2026.
22. Washington Commanders (+6000) LW: No. 21
Washington went from the NFC title game to missing the playoffs last season, and now it has the fourth-toughest schedule in the NFL in 2026.
Jayden Daniels -- who is may be too worried about LSU using his likeness for three weeks before the season -- has to stay healthy if the Commanders want a chance to get back in the postseason.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers (+5000) LW: No. 23
The Aaron Rodgers we saw in last year's playoffs looked completely incapable of winning a playoff game, but now he has a new head coach in Mike McCarthy.
Rodgers and McCarthy go way back to their time in Green Bay, but the former league MVP simply doesn't move around the way he used to. Pittsburgh may need an injury to Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow (like last season) to make the playoffs.
24. New Orleans Saints (+9000) LW: No. 24
A sneaky "worst-to-first" contender, the Saints went 5-4 in Tyler Shough's starts last season and added running back Travis Etienne Jr. to an exciting offense.
The NFC North is wide open, and if Shough's the real deal, New Orleans is projected to have the third-easiest schedule in the NFL in 2026.
25. New York Giants (+7000) LW: No. 25
The Giants have some interesting Super Bowl odds for a team that only won four games last season. John Harbaugh should raise the team's floor, but there are still a lot of questions on offense that need to get answered.
Can Jackson Dart and Malik Nabers stay healthy? Will the offensive line hold up? New York has a wide range of outcomes in 2026, but I don't see it winning the Super Bowl.
26. Atlanta Falcons (+13000) LW: No. 26
The Tua Tagovailoa vs. Michael Penix Jr. quarterback battle is an interesting one, and the Falcons could outplay these odds thanks to all their talented skill players on offense.
However, two injury-prone quarterbacks certainly limits their ceiling in the NFC.
27. Tennessee Titans (+13000) LW: No. 27
Tennessee is likely the fourth-best team in the AFC South, but a strong season from Cam Ward could shift expectations in 2026.
The Titans were a bottom five team in EPA/Play on offense and defense in 2026, so they have a long way to go to get into playoff contention.
28. Las Vegas Raiders (+15000) LW: No. 28
The Las Vegas Raiders' offensive line was terrible in 2025, making life tough for Ashton Jeanty and Geno Smith, who is now with the New York Jets.
Enter Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza, who should bring a little more stability to a Raiders offense that was dead last in EPA/Play in 2025. I can't see the Raiders finishing higher than third in the AFC West, and even that may be a stretch.
29. Cleveland Browns (+20000) LW: No. 29
Myles Garrett is a Los Angeles Ram and the Cleveland Browns have to choose between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders at quarterback.
There aren't many worse situations in the NFL.
30. New York Jets (+20000) LW: No. 30
Could Geno Smith bounce back from an awful 2025 season in Las Vegas?
It's possible, but the Jets have traded away a ton of talent over the last 12 months as they enter yet another rebuilding phase. New York projects to have the fourth-easiest schedule, but a third-place finish in the AFC East is likely this team's ceiling.
31. Miami Dolphins (+35000) LW: No. 31
Speaking of the AFC East, the Dolphins are in a complete teardown in 2026 as they look to fix their cap sheet and build around Malik Willis.
If Willis proves to be a starting-caliber quarterback, it could jump start the next phase for this Dolphins organization.
32. Arizona Cardinals (+50000) LW: No. 32
Arizona is clearly rebuilding, yet it took a running back at No. 3 in the 2026 NFL Draft. Can't say I agree with that move.
The Cardinals are projected to have the toughest schedule in the NFL and play in the toughest division in the league (the NFC West). This is going to be a long season for Jacoby Brissett and Co.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Peter is the associate managing editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, betting and more. He is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.