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NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl Odds Ahead of Week 1 (Rams Enter Season as Favorite, 17 Teams Inside 30/1)
Week 1 finally here!
At long last, the NFL season returns on Wednesday night with a Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, followed by a Thursday Night Football banger between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.
As all 32 teams prepare to start their season, everyone wants to know where their team stacks up compared to the rest of the league. The betting odds can give us unique insight into teams whether it's their win total projection, division odds or game odds, but the Super Bowl odds are what fluctuate the most throughout the campaign.
All season long, I'll be power ranking each team in the NFL based on their odds to win the Super Bowl. What does that mean, exactly?
Glad you asked.
Basically, I'll be ranking teams on two things: Where they stand in the Super Bowl odds and if I believe that is the correct price. So, if there is a team with +2000 odds that I believe has a better chance to win it all than a team with +1800 odds, they'll be higher in the rankings. The goal is to find some value in the futures market while also figuring out which team is the best in the NFL.
So, here's a look at where everything stands heading into Week 1, with the Los Angeles Rams leading the way.
NFL Power Rankings Based on 2026 Super Bowl Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
1. Los Angeles Rams (+500) Last Week: No. 1
The Rams' offseason additions on defense have pushed them all the way up to +500 to win the Super Bowl in the 2026 season, with oddsmakers making a final move after Aaron Donald officially signed with the team.
L.A. was in the top 11 in the league in EPA/Play on offense and defense last season, one of just three teams to complete that feat. Even though it has a tough schedule, this veteran team is in "Super Bowl or bust" mode.
2. Seattle Seahawks (+1200) LW: No. 2
Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks return a major chunk of the core that won the Super Bowl last season. While Seattle dropped to +1200 to win the Super Bowl after Donald joined the Rams, I still believe this team is at least the second-best team in the NFL.
As long as Darnold continues to build on the two-year stretch he's had, the Seahawks are a contender to finish with the top spot in the NFC once again.
3. Baltimore Ravens (+1000) LW: No. 3
Can Lamar Jackson stay healthy?
While I'm not a huge fan of this price for Baltimore, everything is lining up for this team entering 2026. The Ravens have a very easy schedule to open the year and the fifth-easiest schedule overall.
Plus, new headcoach Jesse Minter should improve a defense that was just 16th in EPA/Play last season. If Jackson is able to play the majority of the year, the Ravens will be a playoff team.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (+1700) LW: No. 4
A lot of people are down on the Eagles and Jalen Hurts, but the talent on this roster is undeniable. Sure, Philly lost A.J. Brown, but the defensive and offensive lines remain some of the best in the NFL.
Hopefully, a new offense while unlock more of what Philly can do with Hurts under center, and I think this team is priced way too high given the talent on both sides of the ball.
5. Buffalo Bills (+1000) LW: No. 6
I moved the Bills up a spot this week because it's hard not to have faith in Josh Allen. Talking to various oddsmakers, some have Allen worth nine points to the spread depending on if he plays or not.
That's by far the biggest gap in the league, which is why Buffalo is fifth and not at No. 2 like it is in the odds. If Allen is healthy, this team will make the playoffs. But, if he's even limited, the rest of the roster is questionable enough where I wouldn't touch the +1000 price.
6. New England Patriots (+1800) LW: No. 5
The schedule is going to be tougher than the historically bad one New England played in 2025, but it's still rated as the 10th-easiest slate in the league (Buffalo is 14th). Plus, New England, Los Angeles and Denver were the only NFL teams that finished in the top-11 in EPA/Play on both sides of the ball last season.
If you believe in another step forward from Drake Maye, and it should happen with A.J. Brown in the fold, then New England is a real threat to win the AFC East again. +1800 is a really favorable price ahead of Week 1.
7. Denver Broncos (+2000) LW: No. 7
Speaking of team's with favorable prices and impressive EPA/Play numbers, the Denver Broncos are a huge value at +2000 this season.
Denver added Jaylen Waddle to this offense and returns the No. 1 offensive line in the league. Bo Nix may not be in the league that Allen, Jackson and Maye are in the AFC, but the supporting cast in Denver is elite.
Plus, if Nix hadn't broke his ankle in the win over Buffalo last year, there's a real chance Denver would have been in the Super Bowl.
8. Kansas City Chiefs (+1600) LW: No. 8
I won't count out Patrick Mahomes, even with the Kansas City defense coming into this season as a major wild card.
Mahomes has been an AFC title game automatically for most of his career, and he has some new weapons in Kenneth Walker III and rookie Cyrus Allen.
Until we know that 2025 is becoming the norm, I'm going to hold this team in high regard.
9. Detroit Lions (+1900) LW: No. 9
The stars are aligning for the Detroit Lions in the 2026 season, and I think they have a real shot to win the NFC North and push for the No. 1 seed.
Detroit finished in fourth in the division last year with a 9-8 record, and it now has the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2026. Plus, the Lions still finished last season in sixth in EPA/Play on offense and 14th in EPA/Play on defense.
I'm buying them as a bounce-back candidate to make the playoffs this year.
10. Chicago Bears (+2400) LW: No. 11
I'm really high on the Chicago Bears and Caleb Williams, especially at this price.
Ben Johnson's first year as a head coach went extremely well, and Williams has another step to take as one of the league's best quarterbacks. Chicago could end up winning the NFC North again, but the team's plus-22 turnover differential from last year is going to be tough to repeat.
11. San Francisco 49ers (+1900) LW: No. 12
Health always seems to be the key for the San Francisco 49ers, who survived major injuries to Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Fred Warner and Brock Purdy to make the playoffs and win a playoff game in 2025.
All of those players are entering 2026, but the NFC West is a really tough division. San Fran could finish third once again and still make the playoffs.
12. Houston Texans (+1800) LW: No. 14
Houston had the best defense in the NFL last season (No. 1 in EPA/Play), and it returns that squad with a chance to win the AFC South in 2026.
Ultimately, the Texans need to see the C.J. Stroud of old in 2026 after a few down seasons and an awful 2025 postseason. Stroud's play will determine the ceiling for this team as a Super Bowl contender or just a playoff contender.
13. Green Bay Packers (+2000) LW: No. 10
The Packers are trending down ahead of Week 1, dropping from +1800 to +2000 to win the Super Bowl with Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner's Exempt List and Micah Parsons on the PUP list to open the season.
Green Bay is facing an uphill battle without those two stars in a loaded NFC North. I think there's a chance Green Bay is third in this division, which may not be enough to make the playoffs.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3000) LW: No. 13
I like the price for the Jacksonville Jaguars (+3000), even though they're facing a much tougher path to the playoffs in 2026.
Trevor Lawrence was a legit MVP candidate over the final stretch of the regular season, and there are enough questions about Houston and Indy where it's feasible that the Jags repeat as division champs. I think you could do worse looking for more of a long shot bet to win Super Bowl LXI.
15. Dallas Cowboys (+2500) LW: No. 15
The Cowboys have re-tooled their defense in the 2026 season, and if it's even just league average, this team should take a major step forward. Dallas was dead last in EPA/Play defensively last season, wasting a top-five offense.
The key pieces on that offense -- Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Javonte Williams, Jake Ferguson -- are all back, making Dallas an intriguing pick to make the playoffs in the NFC.
16. Los Angeles Chargers (+1700) LW: No. 16
I'm way lower on the Chargers than the consensus odds, especially since they play in a tough AFC West divisiono. L.A. has Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater back at tackle, but the middle of the offensive line is shaky with center Tyler Biadasz suffering a season-ending injury.
Ultimately, I can't get behind Justin Herbert as a Super Bowl winning quarterback -- at least not yet.
Herbert has a 54.7 percent completion percentage, four picks, and just two touchdowns in three career playoff games. He's won none of them.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (+1800) LW: No. 17
The Cincinnati Bengals have soared up the odds board in recent weeks, but I'm not entirely buying this top-heavy team that needs Joe Burrow to stay healthy, something he's struggled to do in his NFL career.
I think Cincy should be in play to make the postseason, but I prefer almost every other AFC contender at their price compared to the Bengals at +1800.
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5500) LW: No. 18
Someone has to win the NFC South, and the Buccaneers are the clear favorite entering 2026, even after an epic collapse in 2025.
A motivated Baker Mayfield -- who needs a new deal -- should be a good thing for a Bucs team that returns a lot of key offensive weapons outside of Mike Evans in 2026.
19. Minnesota Vikings (+5000) LW: No. 19
Can Kyler Murray raise the Vikings' ceiling?
After an awful season of quarterback play in 2025 still was good enough for a 9-8 record, the Vikes may be a little undervalued entering 2026. However, Murray hasn't exactly been a winning QB on shaky Arizona teams.
In a better situation, the former No. 1 overall pick has a chance to turn his career around this season.
20. Indianapolis Colts (+6000) LW: No. 20
I don't love taking a team with a quarterback coming off an Achilles injury, especially if that quarterback uses their legs a ton like Daniel Jones.
The Colts were well on their way to a playoff berth before Jones went down last season, and they have an easier division than most in the AFC South. Still, Jones is a major question mark that I wouldn't bet on until we see him play the first few weeks.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers (+5000) LW: No. 21
Mike McCarthy is in, Mike Tomlin is out and Aaron Rodgers is still here.
The ceiling for the Steelers is extremely low after Rodgers looked incapable of winning a playoff game in 2025, but there's a chance Pittsburgh makes some noise in the AFC North, especially if Burrow or Jackson get banged up again.
22. Carolina Panthers (+9000) LW: No. 22
I have some faith in Bryce Young in the Panthers after a strong postseason showing against the Rams, but oddsmakers have them priced way down in the market to win the Super Bowl.
Young needs to take another step forward if Carolina wants to be taken seriously as a potential playoff team. After all, the Panthers didn't exactly impress (bottom 10 in EPA/Play on offense and defense) in the 2025 season.
23. Washington Commanders (+6000) LW: No. 23
Jayden Daniels' health is the No. 1 things driving a bounce-back year for Washington, but it's in a tough division with the Eagles, Cowboys and an improved New York Giants team.
At +6000, I think the Commanders are far from the best long shot bet to win the Super Bowl, especially since Daniels' playstyle has put him in harms way over his first two NFL seasons.
24. New Orleans Saints (+9000) LW: No. 24
The Saints were 5-4 with Tyler Shough at quarterback last season and have a worst-to-first case in a terrible NFC South.
That being said, I don't expect any team in the NFC South to win a playoff game, so the team's Super Bowl ceiling is extremely capped. Maybe Shough will surprise us all and take a major leap in his second season, but I'm not going out on a limb before Week 1.
25. New York Giants (+7000) LW: No. 25
A lot of eyes are on John Harbaugh in his first season in New York, and multiple sportsbooks that I've spoken too revealed that the Giants are their biggest liability in the Super Bowl market entering Week 1.
If Jaxson Dart stays healthy, the Giants could take a step forward in 2026, but I still would take Dallas and Philly over them to make the playoffs in the NFC East.
26. Atlanta Falcons (+13000) LW: No. 26
The Falcons could be in an awful spot in 2026, as their quarterback room features Michael Penix Jr. coming off an ACL and Tua Tagovailoa, who was a shell of his old self in the preseason.
If things go poorly early, Atlanta could pivot towards the 2027 NFL Draft.
27. Tennessee Titans (+13000) LW: No. 27
It would be nice to see Cam Ward take a step forward in Year 2 with a new coaching staff, but even that may not be enough to finish ahead of Jacksonville or Houston in the AFC South.
28. New York Jets (+20000) LW: No. 28
Geno Smith should raise the New York Jets' floor in the 2026 season, but this team is still devoid of top-end talent after trading Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner last season.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Jets win a few more games though, especially since Aaron Glenn is going to want to give the front office a reason to keep him around.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (+15000) LW: No. 29
Kirk Cousins will begin the season under center for Las Vegas, but unless he leads the team to a hot start, No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza should take over sooner rather than later.
The Raiders are easily the worst team in a loaded AFC West division.
30. Cleveland Browns (+20000) LW: No. 30
Deshaun Watson is starting in Week 1 for the Browns, which tells you all you need to know about the state of this franchise.
Plus, Myles Garrett is now in L.A. after a trade this offseason, a sign that the Browns aren't playing for much in 2026. Cleveland's defense may still be good with Jared Verse in the fold, but the quarterback play is going to hold this team back.
31. Miami Dolphins (+35000) LW: No. 31
Miami tore down the roster in the offseason, moving on from Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, Tua Tagovailoa and many others.
De'Von Achane remains with new quarterback Malik Willis, but it's pretty clear the Dolphins are in a multi-year rebuild, and this price reflects it.
32. Arizona Cardinals (+50000) LW: No. 32
The Cardinals took running back Jeremiyah Love with the No. 3 overall pick, an interesting move for a team with th worst odds in the NFL to win the Super Bowl this season.
Jacoby Brissett will start the year, but I imagine Carson Beck will get some snaps at some point in 2026. It's going to be a long year for the Cards in the NFC West, and they may be the last team that earns a win this season.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Peter is the associate managing editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, betting and more. He is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.
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