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NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl Odds Ahead of Week 10 (Packers, Bears, Bengals Rise; Patriots Drop)
Halfway home!
The 2026 NFL season is almost halfway done, as one game remains in Week 9. Still, Sunday's action featured some big-time wins for contenders like the Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals and Chicago Bears.
As a result, the Super Bowl odds are looking quite different compared to last week, as there are several teams rising and falling across the league.
But first, we have to talk about tonight's showdown.
For the second week in a row, a massive game for both the Super Bowl odds and the playoff picture is set for Monday night, as the 6-1 Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen go on the road to take on the 6-1 Minnesota Vikings with both teams looking to further their case for the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences. Buffalo is favored in that matchup with Carson Wentz set to start in place of the injured Kyler Murray for Minnesota.
The Bills and Vikings are both in the top half of the league in the odds to win the Super Bowl with Buffalo sitting with the best odds of any AFC team. So, there's a chance we see a few teams jump -- or fall -- after the result of that primetime game.
Still, there were a bunch of teams that made a major statements on Sunday. The Packers went into New England and dominated Drake Maye and the Patriots while the San Francisco 49ers (7-1), Broncos (7-2), Bengals (6-2) and Bears (7-2) all picked up wins that improved their odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February.
There are several teams that are considered Super Bowl contenders with half of the regular season in the books, but which ones have value in the betting market?
Each week this season, I'll be power ranking each team based on their odds to win the Super Bowl. So, teams that are near the top of the odds -- and have value -- may be ranked ahead of a team with shorter odds that I'm not as high on. Still, I'll be using the odds as a guide to help fans and bettors understand how each of these teams is valued in the betting market.
After favorites dominated Sunday's action, the top group in the playoff mix remains pretty similar to last Monday. Here's a look at the top risers -- and fallers -- in the futures market as we head towards Week 10.
NFL Power Rankings Based on 2026 Super Bowl Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
1. San Francisco 49ers (+550) Last Week: No. 1
San Francisco came out of the bye week and put on a show on offense in a win over the Las Vegas Raiders, even with Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel Sr. and Christian Kirk out.
Brock Purdy's MVP case continues to grow, and the 49ers (7-1) are in a prime spot to win the NFC West this season. They moved up slightly from +580 to +550 to win the Super Bowl and remain the favorite in the market.
2. Buffalo Bills (+600) LW: No. 2
The Bills' offense took some time to get going on Monday night, but it easily downed a Vikings team that doesn't have a quarterback. Buffalo remains in the No. 2 spot in the odds to win the Super Bowl (+600), and it is in the driver's seat for the No. 1 seed in the AFC at 7-1.
3. Chicago Bears (+750) LW: No. 3
All the way down to +750!
Chicago turned the ball over five times on Sunday night, but it still pulled out a last-second win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, moving to No. 3 in the odds to win the Super Bowl.
With Caleb Williams healthy, this team is one of the most dangerous in the league, and Chicago will get a bye in Week 10 after an impressive 7-2 start.
4. Denver Broncos (+1500) LW: No. 4
It wasn't pretty, but once again the Denver Broncos pulled out a win and head into their bye week at 7-2. Not only is Denver in first place in the AFC West, but it has a huge head-to-head win over Jacksonville for seeding in the conference.
Yet, the Broncos are still just +1500 to win the Super Bowl. The Broncos keep coming through in the clutch, and their defense is one of the 12-best units in the league.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (+850) LW: No. 5
Jacksonville is now inside 10/1 to win the Super Bowl after an easy blowout win over Baltimore in Week 9. The Jaguars (6-2) are in a prime spot to win the AFC South with only one team (Houston) with more than two wins this season.
6. Kansas City Chiefs (+1000) LW: No. 7
Kansas City dominated the New York Jets on Sunday, and Patrick Mahomes appears to have survived an injury scare to his throwing arm.
The Chiefs are inner-circle contenders at 10/1, and they're still very much in the mix to win the AFC West. However, the team has struggled a bit against elite competition -- Seattle and Denver -- in 2026.
7. Cincinnati Bengals (+1200) LW: No. 8
Cincy is the odds-on favorite to win the AFC North, and it has jumped from +1500 to +1200 to win the Super Bowl after a blowout win in Madrid over Atlanta.
Joe Burrow had yet another MVP-level performance, and this offense is easily one of the best in the NFL -- top five in EPA/Play -- as long as Burrow is out there.
8. Seattle Seahawks (+1600) LW: No. 6
Seattle has dropped from +1050 to +1600 to win the Super Bowl, a clear sign that oddsmakers are worried about Sam Darnold's quad injury. I still think Seattle's top-five defense can carry it to wins, but a playoff spot is not guaranteed for the defending champs in a loaded NFC West.
9. Los Angeles Rams (+1000) LW: No. 9
The Rams didn't blow out Washington in Week 9, but they got to 5-4 with a third win in a row. Puka Nacua (knee) was injured at the end of the game, which could be a concern since Davante Adams is already sidelined with a hamstring injury.
This Rams defense is one of the 10 best in the NFL, and with Myles Garrett back the defense may have to carry L.A. into the playoffs.
10. Green Bay Packers (+2600) LW: No. 14
Yes, the Packers have losses to Minnesota and Detroit. Yes, the NFC North is the toughest divison in the NFL.
Yet, if you told the Pack that they'd be 6-3 (winning five of their last six) without Micah Parsons, I'm sure they'd take it. Green Bay had by far the most impressive win in Week 9, blowing out the Patriots in New England.
Jordan Love is a serious MVP candidate, and the Packers went from +3000 to +2600 to win the Super Bowl as a result.
11. Detroit Lions (+1900) LW: No. 10
The Lions won in Week 9, but they were largely unimpressive against a one-win Miami team that should end up in the mix for the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
The defense for Detroit has been a lot better since the bye week, and that is a positive sign for this team making a Super Bowl run out of the NFC North. Still, I like the Bears and Packers more with their current QB play.
12. Minnesota Vikings (+2400) LW: No. 11
The Vikings are the last NFC North team on this list, and for good reason.
Minnesota's offense is 31st in EPA/Play and 30th in success rate, and the team doesn't have a quarterback after Carson Wentz was benched in Week 9 and Kyler Murray (hamstring) remains out.
Will the Vikings make a trade on Tuesday? It's unclear if there is even a quarterback upgrade available, and Minnesota is now third in a loaded NFC North with a 6-2 record. A major date with the Packers is up next in Week 10.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (+4000) LW: No. 13
The Steelers remain in ther No. 13 spot through their bye week, and they have a massive game against Cincinnati on Sunday night in Week 10.
14. New England Patriots (+2200) LW: No. 12
New England is really banged up, and it was outclassed by the Packers on Sunday. Now, it has to go to Munich to play Detroit in Week 10 before a Week 11 bye.
There's a real chance this Patriots team is 5-5 heading into the bye, and Drake Maye continues to make bad mistakes throwing the ball. It's hard to justify this team as a Super Bowl contender if the Bills run away with the AFC East.
15. New York Giants (+6000) LW: No. 15
The New York Giants are down to +6000 to win the Super Bowl (from +6500), and they're sitting pretty in the NFC East at 5-2-1 with a Thursday matchup against Washington on deck in Week 10.
I wouldn't bet on the Giants to win the Super Bowl, but they're looking more and more like a playoff team as the weeks progress. A 6-2-1 start (with a 3-0-1 record in the division) would be huge, so Thursday's game holds a lot of weight for John Harbaugh's club.
16. Houston Texans (+4500) LW: No. 21
C.J. Stroud's big 2026 season continued on Sunday, as he torched the Los Angeles Chargers defense for five passing scores. The Texans came out of the bye with a commanding win, getting to 3-5 in the 2026 season. They're still a fringe playoff team, and the ceiling of this core is a lot higher than other teams in this range (Las Vegas, Cleveland) in the AFC.
17. Dallas Cowboys (+5000) LW: No. 22
Dallas nearly lost another winnable game against Indianapolis, but Dak Prescott delivered some big plays down the stretch, including a huge throw on the final drive to secure a win.
Dallas remains at +5000 to win the Super Bowl, but at 4-5, it remains in play to win the NFC East in 2026.
18. Cleveland Browns (+20000) LW: No. 16
Back-to-back losses have dropped Cleveland to 5-4, though starting quarterback Deshaun Watson didn't play against New Orleans. Shedeur Sanders got the Browns to OT, but they came up short on a 2-point conversion to lose the game.
Cleveland dropped from +15000 to +20000 to win the Super Bowl with the loss.
19. Las Vegas Raiders (+15000) LW: No. 17
Once again, Kirk Cousins and the Raiders were outclassed by a superior opponent, and they're not really a playoff contender in the AFC. If Cousins remains on the team through the deadline, Vegas doesn't have a puncher's chance at the No. 7 seed.
20. Carolina Panthers (+9000) LW: No. 20
Carolina has now lost three games in a row to fall to 3-5, and it doesn't look like a team that will win a playoff game even if it takes the NFC South.
The Panthers can hold out for some players returning in the second half of the season, but they have steadily dropped in the Super Bowl odds since coming out of their bye.
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6500) LW: No. 19
Tampa Bay's defense showed up in a big way again on Sunday night, forcing five turnovers, but it wasn't enough to beat the Bears.
Now, the Bucs head into their bye week at 3-6, and they have a lot of work to do to win a terrible NFC South that doesn't have a four-win team through nine weeks.
22. Baltimore Ravens (+15000) LW: No. 18
There's a chance Lamar Jackson returns much later in the season, but even with Jacoby Brissett now in the fold, the Ravens are facing an uphill battle at 4-5 to make the playoffs in a tough AFC North.
Baltimore was blown out on Thursday by Jacksonville, and it has already lost multiple games against AFC North opponents. As soon as Jackson went down, the Ravens' Super Bowl odds have tumbled from +1200 to +4000 and now to +15000.
23. New Orleans Saints (+20000) LW: No. 26
New Orleans came out of their bye week with a huge win, holding on to beat the Cleveland Browns in overtime. The NFC South is wide open with all four teams under .500, so the Saints remain in play to make the playoffs, even though they are +20000 to win the Super Bowl.
24. Atlanta Falcons (+10000) LW: No. 23
Atlanta is now in last place in the NFC South at 3-6 and was outclassed in Madrid by the Bengals.
The Falcons are better with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, but this defense has regressed from a top-10 unit all the way down to 15th in EPA/Play over the last three weeks. That isn't good enough if the Falcons want to win a wide open NFC South.
25. Arizona Cardinals (+70000) LW: No. 24
Jacoby Brissett is in Baltimore and the Gardner Minshew era got off to a rough start in a loss to Seattle on Sunday.
Arizona has been frisky this season in the NFC, but everything is pointing towards Carson Beck making a bunch of starts for this team later on in 2026.
26. Washington Commanders (+15000) LW: No. 25
Washington dropped from +12000 to +15000 to win the Super Bowl, and it still has a chance in the NFC East with a big matchup against New York ahead in Week 10. Still, this team is just 2-5-1 and only has one win with Jayden Daniels at quarterback.
The offense is in the bottom 12 in the league in EPA/Play while the defense is just 19th after a loss to the Rams in Week 9.
27. Philadelphia Eagles (+100000) LW: No. 27
It's hard not to appreciate Jalen Hurts right now.
The Eagles have lost seven games in a row Joe Milton III was not the answer in place of Tanner McKee against the New York Giants. The Eagles are destined for a rebuilding season, and they could be active ahead of Tuesday's trade deadline.
28. New York Jets (+100000) LW: No. 28
The Jets may have hit rock bottom on Sunday, as they had nothing going on both sides of the ball in a loss to Kansas City.
Aaron Glenn's seat is red hot, though the Jets' bye doesn't come until Week 13. It's hard to see New York keeping this coaching regime beyond this season.
On the bright side, first-round pick David Bailey has been a game-wrecker in his first season.
29. Indianapolis Colts (+100000) LW: No. 28
The Colts had a chance to upset Dallas on Sunday, but terrible defense on Dallas' final drive and a Daniel Jones pick doomed the effort. The Colts could be active ahead of Tuesday's deadline, as they've already moved Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner.
Indy seems destined for the basement in the AFC, though it doesn't own its first-round pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
30. Miami Dolphins (+100000) LW: No. 30
The Dolphins' defense actually held up against a vaunted Detroit offense, but they only put up nine points in their Week 9 loss. Miami plays hard -- and has been in a lot of games -- but there is a clear talent deficit on this roster.
Miami would be better off losing close games and getting a shot at the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
31. Tennessee Titans (+100000) LW: No. 31
Tennessee remains in the No. 31 spot during its bye week. Cam Ward's play during the second half of the season will be crucial for the Titans' long-term outlook.
32. Los Angeles Chargers (+100000) LW: No. 32
Jim Harbaugh's Chargers are the only winless team in the NFL, and they were blown out by Houston, allowing C.J. Stroud to throw all over them.
On top of that, the offense continued to make a comedy of errors while Justin Herbert looked like a shell of himself. This is more than a lost season. The Chargers have seen Herbert, Omarion Hampton and other key young pieces regress. This is one of the most bleak situations in the NFL given the preseason expectations.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Peter is the associate managing editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, betting and more. He is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.
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