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NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl Odds Ahead of Week 4 (Ravens, Broncos, Jags Statement Wins; 49ers Rise)
Week 3 was all about statement wins, and Sunday's action closed with one of the biggest, as the Denver Broncos erased a 16-point halftime deficit to upset the Los Angeles Rams -- the Super Bowl favorite entering the game -- on Sunday night.
It was one of many upsets, a theme that started with the first game of the week.
The Atlanta Falcons knocked off the Green Bay Packers in that game, and that was a precursor for an upset-filled early window on Sunday that included the defending champion Seattle Seahawks dropping their first game in 2026.
Seattle, Carolina, Houston and Cincinnati all dropped games on Sunday afternoon, causing a pretty big shakeup in the Super Bowl odds heading into Week 4. There's still one game to go in Week 3, but the Chicago Bears are starting a backup quarterback against a Philadelphia Eagles team that is poised to move to 3-0 in 2026. If the Bears pull off an upset in that game, it'll certainly improve their playoff odds with Caleb Williams sidelined due to a hamstring injury.
Each week this season, I'll be power ranking each team based on their odds to win the Super Bowl. So, teams that are near the top of the odds -- and have value -- may be ranked ahead of a team with shorter odds that I'm not as high on. Still, I'll be using the odds as a guide to help fans and bettors understand how each of these teams is valued in the betting market.
The No. 1 team in this week's rankings remains the same, as Josh Allen, James Cook and the Buffalo Bills rebounded from a slow start to beat the Los Angeles Chargers and improve to 3-0 this season.
With a few potential playoff contenders falling to 0-3, who should bettors value as playoff teams this season? I have some thoughts on which teams are worth crossing off the boards in terms of their futures price unless they have a massive turnaround.
Before Week 3 comes to a close with Monday night's battle between the Eagles and Bears, here's where I'm ranking each team following Sunday's movement in the Super Bowl market.
NFL Power Rankings Based on 2026 Super Bowl Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
1. Buffalo Bills (+700) Last Week: No. 1
Buffalo weathered a terrible game of turnovers to knock off the Los Angeles Chargers and move to 3-0 this season.
James Cook and Josh Allen both got the job done on the ground, combining for three scores, and Buffalo is the clear favorite in the AFC East with New England looking like anything but a playoff team in 2026.
2. San Francisco 49ers (+900) LW: No. 5
The 49ers have sole possession of the NFC West lead, picking up another win over a divisional opponent in Arizona in Week 3.
Brock Purdy is now No. 2 in the odds to win the MVP, and this offense is a top-five unit in EPA/Play. The only worry? Mike Evans went down in Week 3 and Nick Bosa is already banged up. The 49ers can't afford to lose as many players as they did last season if they want to win the Super Bowl.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (+1100) LW: No. 4
Stop me if you've heard this before: The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-0.
Patrick Mahomes and Co. handled the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, and they have a major AFC West battle with the unbeaten Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4.
Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and Kenneth Walker III have formed an elite trio, making this offense one of the more dangerous units Mahomes has had in years.
4. Seattle Seahawks (+950) LW: No. 2
The defending champs shockingly lost as 7.5-point favorites on Sunday against Marcus Mariota and the previously 0-2 Washington Commanders.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to put up huge numbers, but a couple of Sam Darnold picks ended up dooming Seattle's chances in this road date.
5. Baltimore Ravens (+900) LW: No. 7
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens came back to beat the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3, kicking a field goal as time expired. It was a huge win in a neutral site game (in Brazil), and the Ravens are now fourth in the odds to win the Super Bowl this season.
As long as Jackson, Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers are healthy, this offense is one of the most dynamic in the league. Flowers put up 104 total yards in his return from a hamstring injury.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (+1500) LW: No. 6
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are favored to move to 3-0 this season when they take on the Chicago Bears on Monday.
7. Denver Broncos (+2000) LW: No. 9
The Broncos may have had the win of the week, erasing a 16-0 deficit at halftime to come back and beat Los Angeles. Denver is now 2-1 after playing Kansas City, Jacksonville and L.A. to open the season.
If Bo Nix and Co. can upset the 49ers in Week 4, they'll be in much higher consideration in this market. To be honest, +2000 odds on Denver after back-to-back wins is pretty favorable since this team was in the AFC title game last season.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (+2200) LW: No. 11
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-1 and in sole possession of first place in the AFC South, where the Houston Texans are 0-3 for the second season in a row.
I've been saying since the beginning of the year that Jacksonville was undervalued in this division, and it dismantled New England in Week 3. I think the Jaguars are a sneaky Super Bowl bet in the AFC.
9. Minnesota Vikings (+2400) LW: No. 13
Minnesota has won eight games in a row dating back to the 2025 season, and the defense has been one of the best in the NFL in 2026.
Kyler Murray's return should raise the ceiling for this offense, although Justin Jefferson's ankle injury is a concern. Still, with the Packers struggling and Caleb Williams hurt, the Vikings have a real chance to earn a top-two spot in the NFC North.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (+1700) LW: No. 8
Joe Burrow and the Bengals dropped a key AFC North game against Pittsburgh, and their defense took a slight step back after a top-five start in EPA/Play in the first two weeks of the 2026 season.
Still, I'm buying this offense when healthy to be one of the top groups in the conference. The Bengals actually went up to +1700 to win the Super Bowl despite the loss.
11. Los Angeles Rams (+650) LW: No. 3
It's been a tough start to the year for the Rams, who have lost Puka Nacua and Myles Garrett to injury while playing some tough games against Denver and San Francisco.
Still a 1-2 start is a 1-2 start, and in the toughest division in the NFL, it's going to be tough for this team to get ahead of San Fran or Seattle this season. So, betting on the banged-up Rams at +650 is far from the best value on the board heading into Week 4.
12. Detroit Lions (+1900) LW: No. 14
The Lions' offense continues to be elite, and it did enough to hold off the New York Jets in Week 3.
I like the Lions' schedule in 2026, and I think it sets up well for the team to win the NFC North, especially with the Packers struggling and Caleb Williams out at least a few weeks for Chicago.
Still, the Detroit secondary is a major concern when it comes to the team's long-term Super Bowl viability.
13. Chicago Bears (+2800) LW: No. 12
The Bears are underdogs in Week 3 with Caleb Williams out. He's set to miss 3-4 weeks with a hamstring strain.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (+5000) LW: No. 21
Aaron Rodgers played by far his best game of the season in a win over Cincy in Week 3.
Pittsburgh's defense was No. 1 in EPA/Play entering Week 3, and if Rodgers can just be average the Steelers are a potential playoff contender in the AFC. They have a major divisional matchup ahead with the Browns on Thursday.
15. Dallas Cowboys (+2800) LW: No. 15
Dallas came up short in Week 3 against Baltimore, and the defense remains a major issue in 2026.
Still, Dak Prescott and Co. competed with one of the top teams in the league, and they're still in play in an NFC that has a ton of injuries (and struggling teams) that were expected to be in the playoff picture.
Dallas also remains a top-10 attack in EPA/Play, which should help it with some easier games later on in the season.
16. New England Patriots (+2400) LW: No. 10
Maybe the Patriots' schedule last season was the driving force in their success.
Drake Maye has been down right awful in 2026, throwing just one score while turning the ball over mutliple times again in a Week 3 blowout against the Jags. The Patriots are staring down a 1-3 start with a tough matchup against Buffalo ahead in Week 4.
This price is way too high for a team that has not put anything together on offense in 2026.
17. Las Vegas Raiders (+9000) LW: No. 25
The Raiders have jumped up from +12500 to +9000 to win the Super Bowl with a 3-0 start, though it came against the Dolphins, Chargers and Saints.
Still, Kirk Cousins has clearly raised the floor for this offense, and Brock Bowers' return was huge in the Week 3 win (10 catches, 116 yards, TD).
The Raiders have a true litmus test in Week 4 against the undefeated Chiefs.
18. Houston Texans (+3500) LW: No. 18
"Houston's 0-3, how does it not drop?"
The Texans were in the same spot last season and still earned the No. 5 seed in the AFC, and their losses aren't exactly bad. The Texans have a road division loss (Indy) and home losses to playoff contenders in Cincinnati and Buffalo.
It could be worse. Houston does face a must-win game against Dallas in Week 4.
19. New Orleans Saints (+8000) LW: No. 19
New Orleans came up short in Week 3 against the Raiders, but the offense still remains a top-16 unit in EPA/Play this season.
The NFC South is wide open, and the Super Bowl odds suggest that New Orleans is the faovrite. I wouldn't take any of those teams to do anything in the playoffs after their start to the season. New Orleans may have the highest ceiling, though, since it's played pretty well in all three games against Detroit, Baltimore and Las Vegas.
20. Indianapolis Colts (+7000) LW: No. 24
Daniel Jones and the Colts picked up a massive win over an AFC South opponent in Houston, but this defense has been pretty shaky to start the season (entered Week 3 dead last in EPA/Play).
The Colts are still in the mix to win the AFC South, but I prefer Jacksonville over them by quite a wide margin.
21. Cleveland Browns (+20000) LW: No. 29
The Browns went from +25000 to +20000 to win the Super Bowl after moving to 2-1, and they have a huge AFC North date with Pittsburgh in Week 4.
Deshaun Watson is playing a lot more like the player we remember in Houston, and the Cleveland defense has turned in back-to-back strong showings in upset wins.
I am not saying the Browns are a playoff contender, but at the price (+365 to make the postseason), they have some intriguing value.
22. Green Bay Packers (+5500) LW: No. 16
The Packers have fallen from +2500 to +5500 to win the Super Bowl after their loss to Atlanta, and they may be the worst team in the NFC North this season.
Josh Jacobs return reportedly isn't imminent, and the Pack have three shaky showings against Minnesota, the New York Jets and Atlanta. Not exactly a murderer's row.
The Pack are one of several fringe playoff teams that I'd avoid at this price in 2026.
23. New York Giants (+15000) LW: No. 17
The New York Giants are off to a 2-1 start, but their win over Tennessee was far from impressive. Jameis Winston isn't getting this team to the playoffs, and the loss of Jaxson Dart tanked the team's Super Bowl odds (+4500 to +15000).
New York isn't a team that I'd touch in the futures market unless the team executes a deal for a clear upgrade at quarterback.
24. Carolina Panthers (+10000) LW: No. 20
Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers couldn't get much going on offense, losing to Cleveland in Week 3. Jalen Coker went down in the game, and the Panthers blew a chance (in a game they were favored) to take control of the NFC South.
Carolina won the division in 2025, but the schedule is tougher in 2026 and Cleveland was one of the few road games where Carolina would be favored.
25. Washington Commanders (+8000) LW: No. 27
Marcus Mariota kept the Washington Commanders' season alive in his first start in place of the injured Jayden Daniels, upsetting the Seahawks on Sunday. Washington remains a long shot to win the Super Bowl (+8000), but it may be equipped to weather the storm wtih Daniels out.
Mariota has been one of the better backups in the league for several seasons.
26. New York Jets (+20000) LW: No. 26
Geno Smith and the New York offense was on fire in Week 3, but the defense couldn't stop Jahmyr Gibbs in a loss. After beating Tennessee in Week 1, the Jets have now dropped back-to-back games against NFC North foes.
I don't see this team making the playoffs in the AFC, even with the AFC East looking worse than expected.
27. Los Angeles Chargers (+6500) LW: No. 23
This price (+6500) is absolutely bonkers for a Chargers team that has a tough schedule coming up (including Seattle in Week 4) and is 0-3 this season.
L.A.'s offense has not gotten going, and it plays in a tough division with two undefeated teams (Las Vegas and Kansas City) and the 2-1 Broncos. I'm staying far, far away from the Chargers unless they go on a major winning streak.
28. Atlanta Falcons (+12000) LW: No. 31
Michael Penix Jr. is back, and the Atlanta Falcons upset the Green Bay Packers in Week 3 on Thursday night. Atlanta has a dynamic group of playmakers, led by Bijan Robinson, and it showed that it can win with just average quarterback play.
If Penix stays healthy (a big if) the Falcons are in play in the weak NFC South. I just need to see him on the field for long enough before moving Atlanta up in the conversation as a potential playoff team.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10000) LW: No. 22
Tampa Bay's Super Bowl odds dropped from +5500 to +10000 after falling to 0-3, and it is the only winless team in the NFC South. Now, the Bucs are also just one game out of first with the rest of the division sitting at 1-2.
However, Baker Mayfield suffered a dislocated thumb and is likely to miss time, leaving rookie Jalon Daniels as the team's quarterback. I wouldn't touch the Bucs at this price, even if the terrible NFC South.
30. Arizona Cardinals (+30000) LW: No. 28
Arizona pulled off a major upset win over the Chargers in Week 1, but it has come back to earth with losses to Seattle and San Francisco in back-to-back weeks.
The Cards have hung around and looked good on offense, and they aren't a pushover in the NFC West. Still, this team is facing a massive uphill battle to even sniff playoff relevancy in 2026.
31. Tennessee Titans (+50000) LW: No. 30
The Cam Ward era in Tennessee continues to go terribly.
Ward threw a game-ending pick in a bad loss to Jameis Winston and the New York Giants, and the Titans' offense has been one of the worst in the league this season.
It'll be interesting to see if Tennessee is in the market for a quarterback in the 2027 NFL Draft if it ends up with another top-five pick.
32. Miami Dolphins (+100000) LW: No. 32
Not only did the Miami Dolphins fall to 0-3 with a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, but they also lost star running back De'Von Achane to a knee injury in the process.
Miami has been last in the odds to win the Super Bowl for quite some team, and it's likely going to stay there for the rest of the season.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Peter is the associate managing editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, betting and more. He is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.
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