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NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl Odds Ahead of Week 5 (49ers Take Top Spot; Chiefs, Rams Rise)
Nearly a quarter of the 2026 NFL season is behind us, and the true playoff contenders -- and pretenders -- are really starting to take shape.
So, when it comes to the latest Super Bowl odds, can we project the true contenders better than the market?
Each week this season, I'll be power ranking each team based on their odds to win the Super Bowl. So, teams that are near the top of the odds -- and have value -- may be ranked ahead of a team with shorter odds that I'm not as high on. Still, I'll be using the odds as a guide to help fans and bettors understand how each of these teams is valued in the betting market.
The Buffalo Bills held the No. 1 spot for back-to-back weeks, but they've dropped in these rankings -- and in their Super Bowl odds -- after a home loss to the New England Patriots in Week 4.
New England, Dallas, the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers were all teams with preseason playoff hopes that picked up massive wins on Sunday to get back to .500 this season.
While some teams with postseason expectations improved their chances, teams like the Los Angeles Chargers (still winless) Houston (now 0-4), Tampa Bay (also 0-4) and Cincinnati (now 2-2) took major steps back in Week 4, and their odds reflect that with Week 5 on the horizon.
“Today was more about the teams that hurt their chances than those that helped them," Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated on Sunday. "The biggest drifters in the Super Bowl market were the Eagles, who moved from 16/1 to 22/1, and the Texans, who slid from 40/1 to 66/1 after disappointing performances."
The odds to win the Super Bowl are still pretty open, as there are five teams that are shorter than 10/1 and 15 teams shorter than 30/1 through the first four weeks of the campaign. So, there's plenty of teams that may be outside the top group that may have some value based on their schedule in the coming weeks.
Before Week 4 comes to a close with Monday night's battle between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints, here's where I'm ranking each team following Sunday's movement in the Super Bowl market.
NFL Power Rankings Based on 2026 Super Bowl Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
1. San Francisco 49ers (+850) Last Week: No. 2
San Francisco is now 4-0 in the 2026 season and it has two really nice wins over the Rams and Broncos.
Brock Purdy hasn't been sacked all season, and San Fran entered Week 4 with the best EPA/Play on offense in the league. The 49ers are in the driver's seat in the NFC West, and they can build on that even more in a divisional matchup with Seattle in Week 5.
The 49ers have moved from +900 to +850 to win the Super Bowl, tied for the third-best odds in the league.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (+950) LW: No. 3
Kansas City is BACK.
The Chiefs are off to a 4-0 start, surviving Sunday's game with a frisky Raiders team. The Chiefs lost Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton to injuries on Sunday, but Kenneth Walker III had yet another huge game for a revamped offense.
Given Mahomes' playoff history and success, Kansas City is a pretty solid bet at +950 (down from +1100) entering Week 5.
3. Seattle Seahawks (+950) LW: No. 4
Seattle rebounded from a loss to Washington, going up big and holding on to beat the Chargers in Week 4. Seattle is now off to a 3-1 start and entered Week 4 in the top 10 in the league in both EPA/Play on offense and defense.
Sam Darnold's turnover issues can be a concern, but this defense remains one of the best units in the league. I believe in the defending champs as one of the best teams in the league.
4. Buffalo Bills (+750) LW: No. 1
Buffalo is no longer undefeated, and the team's defense was exposed in Week 5 by Drake Maye and the Patriots. A loss to the No. 2 team in the division -- especially at home is never good -- and the Bills dropped from +700 to +750 to win the Super Bowl in the process.
Josh Allen may will the Bills to a deep playoff run, but there are some flaws with this team, making it a little bit of a volatile bet at this price.
5. Los Angeles Rams (+650) LW: No. 11
The Rams might have saved their NFC West division hopes on Sunday, as they erased a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.
L.A. has been very up and down to begin this season, but it's not 2-2 and remains the favorite to win the Super Bowl. This was a huge win for the Rams with a Monday Night Football date against Buffalo up next in Week 5.
6. Baltimore Ravens (+850) LW: No. 5
Lamar Jackson's injury knocks Baltimore down a spot, as the team has struggled in recent years with him out.
Jackson left the stadium in a walking boot, and the Ravens dropped from six-point favorites to 3.5-point favorites in Week 5 against Atlanta. If Lamar is healthy, the Ravens are still contenders, but his injury is important to monitor going forward.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (+1500) LW: No. 8
Jacksonville knocked off another AFC playoff contender in Week 5, handling Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals.
The defending AFC South champs are right back in the mix to win the division, and they are primed to earn a wild card spot, dropping from +2200 to +1500 to win the Super Bowl in the process.
8. Chicago Bears (+1800) LW: No. 13
Ben Johnson may be the best coach in the NFL.
The Bears have now won back-to-back games without Caleb Williams and are firmly in the mix to repeat as NFC North champs. Chicago has come all the way down to 18/1 to win the Super Bowl after opening the season at 30/1 or longer at most books.
9. Denver Broncos (+2000) LW: No. 7
Denver has two losses to undefeated teams (Kansas City and San Francisco) this season, so I don't want to take too much away from this team, which hasn't fallen in the Super Bowl odds.
However, Pat Surtain II's ankle injury -- and severity -- could really impact how competitive Denver is in the AFC.
10. Minnesota Vikings (+2200) LW: No. 9
Minnesota is 4-0, but it has one of the worst offenses in the league and a bunch of ugly wins against subpar teams (outside of Chicago) to open 2026.
I wouldn't bet on this team at this current price, even though the defense remains one of the best units in the NFL. I think Minnesota will eventually fall off in the NFC North race and settle in as a wild card contender.
11. Dallas Cowboys (+2700) LW: No. 15
Dallas' case to win the NFC East has never been stronger after a comeback win against Houston in Week 4. The Eagles are now 2-2, and the 3-1 Giants are extremely banged up.
Oddsmakers only bumped Dallas' Super Bowl odds up from +2800 to +2700, but they are down to +144 to win the division. I'm buying this offense heading into Week 5.
12. New England Patriots (+2500) LW: No. 16
Drake Maye and the Patriots had by far their best showing of 2026, upsetting the Bills in Buffalo.
The win immediately puts New England back in the AFC East race, and Maye looked a little more comfortable on offense, throwing for three scores while also rushing for 54 yards.
If Maye can return to his 2025 form, New England is an interesting playoff contender in the AFC.
13. Detroit Lions (+2400) LW: No. 12
The Lions dropped to 2-2 in Week 4, and their defense once again struggled to get stops.
Detroit's secondary remains extremely short-handed, and it's hard to view this team as a Super Bowl contender -- even with this elite offense -- if it can't slow anyone down.
The Lions dropped from +1900 to +2400 to win the Super Bowl after their loss on Sunday night.
14. Las Vegas Raiders (+7400) LW: No. 17
The Raiders are down to +7400 to win the Super Bowl (from +9000), and they hung tough with the undefeated Chiefs in Week 4.
Las Vegas is no longer undefeated, but there is a clear floor with Kirk Cousins under center, and I wouldn't be shocked if the Raiders hang around in the playoff conversation as long as he's healthy.
15. Cincinnati Bengals (+1900) LW: No. 10
After a 2-0 start, the Bengals have dropped back-to-back games to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville and lost Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) in Week 4.
Cincy's defense is better than recent seasons, but this team has been priced as an inner circle contender and that is starting to fade back (now +1900). I'd stay away from the Bengals at this price since they are far from a lock to make the playoffs in the AFC.
16. Philadelphia Eagles (+2000) LW: No. 6
Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are all banged up, and the Eagles blew a late 10-point lead to the Rams in Week 4.
This team may hang around and make the playoffs, but there's no way to view it as a contender to win the Super Bowl -- especially at +2000 -- after the last two weeks against Chicago and L.A.
17. Cleveland Browns (+18000) LW: No. 21
The Cleveland Browns are 3-1.
I repeat. The Cleveland Browns are 3-1.
Deshaun Watson has been pretty solid through four weeks, and Cleveland earned a huge AFC North win on Thursday over Pittsburgh. Oddsmakers have only bumped the Browns from +20000 to +18000 to win the Super Bowl, but it's hard not to look at that price as a small value in the AFC through four weeks.
Cleveland is all the way down to +250 to make the playoffs in 2026.
18. Indianapolis Colts (+6500) LW: No. 20
Jonathan Taylor and the Colts have won back-to-back games and are in the mix for the top spot in the AFC South. With Houston sitting at 0-4, Indy has moved up to +6500 to win the Super Bowl and has a much clearer path to a wild card berth than it did before the season.
19. New Orleans Saints (+8000) LW: No. 19
The Saints have a chance to move back to .500 -- and take control the NFC South -- on Monday night against Atlanta.
20. Carolina Panthers (+9000) LW: No. 24
Carolina has some defensive questions, especially with Jaycee Horn sidelined, and the NFC South is unlikely to produce a Super Bowl contender.
That being said, Bryce Young has been terrific through four weeks, and Carolina is right at the top of the division heading into a Week 5 bye. The Panthers may be undervalued in the odds to win the NFC South behind New Orleans.
21. New York Giants (+15000) LW: No. 23
The Giants are in first place in the NFC East, yet they're all the way down at +15000 to win the Super Bowl after Sunday's win over Arizona.
Jameis Winston can beat some bad teams, but the Giants aren't going to contend for a Super Bowl with this quarterback room, and the schedule does get tougher as the season goes along.
I need another win -- and it appears oddsmakers do as well -- before I really adjust the Giants in this ranking.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers (+10000) LW: No. 14
Pittsburgh took a massive step back in the futures market, dropping from +5000 to +10000 to win the Super Bowl after a loss to Cleveland.
Aaron Rodgers' ceiling is limited at this point in his career, and we saw Pittsburgh fall flat in the playoffs in 2026. Unless this defense is going to be a top-five unit -- which it isn't at this point in the season -- it's tough to make an argument for the Steelers as a contender.
23. Green Bay Packers (+5000) LW: No. 22
The Packers jumped from +5500 to +5000 to win the Super Bowl this season, but they were largely unimpressive against Tampa Bay and rookie Jalon Daniels.
The Green Bay running game is really shaky, and it has a tough division with
Detroit, Minnesota and Chicago all off to stronger starts.
24. Houston Texans (+4500) LW: No. 18
C.J. Stroud and the Houston offense had a solid day on offense, but this defense -- that was No. 1 in 2025 -- allowed 34 points to Dallas and is in the bottom 10 in EPA/Play during this 0-4 start.
Houston is now two games out of second place in the AFC South and has a division loss to the 2-2 Colts. This team is facing a major uphill battle to make the playoffs in 2026.
25. Atlanta Falcons (+12000) LW: No. 28
The Falcons have a chance to take the top spot in the NFC South on Monday night against New Orleans.
26. Washington Commanders (+9000) LW: No. 25
Washington got off to an early lead in Week 4, but it lost Marcus Mariota to a knee injury and ended up losing the Colts.
Jayden Daniels (elbow) may return in Week 5, but it may not matter for a Washington team that is pretty banged up and in last place in the NFC East.
Oddsmakers only dropped Washington from +8000 to +9000 to win the Super Bowl, but it seems like a little too much confidence in an already banged up Daniels returning.
27. Los Angeles Chargers (+10000) LW: No. 23
Rock. Bottom.
The Chargers lost again in Week 4, this time against the defending champion Seahawks, and they're 0-4 in 2026. L.A. has fallen from +6500 to +10000 to win the Super Bowl, and it's a massive long shot to make the playoffs.
The schedule doesn't let up for the Chargers, who take on Broncos, Chiefs and Rams in their next three games.
28. New York Jets (+30000) LW: No. 26
After winning in Week 1 against a bad Tennessee team, the Jets are now 1-3 and allowed Chicago to handle over 40 minutes of possession in Week 4.
I'm not sure Aaron Glenn is going to be safe to finish the 2026 season, and New York is now tied for the third-worst odds in the league to win the Super Bowl. This team can't be bet on in any futures market to have a successful season.
29. Arizona Cardinals (+30000) LW: No. 30
Arizona has now dropped three games in a row since upsetting the Chargers in Week 1, and it had the third-worst odds in the league to win the Super Bowl.
Let's be honest, this is where we all expected the Cardinals to be this season. Arizona's offense can score, but it couldn't stop Jameis Winston and the Giants in Week 4. In a tough NFC West, Arizona was always destined for the basement in the NFL standings.
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+15000) LW: No. 29
Is Tampa Bay still alive in the NFC South? Technically, yes.
But, the betting market has the Buccaneers as the clear worst team in the division, and they've dropped from +10000 to +15000 to win the Super Bowl after falling to 0-4.
With Baker Mayfield potentially out for as much as six weeks, Tampa Bay's season is already hanging in the balance heading into Week 5 against Dallas. There is now way bettors should consider this team with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels at the controls in the coming weeks.
31. Tennessee Titans (+50000) LW: No. 31
Lamar Jackson missed the entire second half of the Ravens vs. Titans matchup, and it didn't matter.
Tennessee fell behind 24-7 in the first half and had a late score that made this a game (24-18) on the scoreboard, but Baltimore was never in jeopardy of actually losing the game.
At 0-4, Tennessee has shown no sign of growth in Robert Saleh's first season as head coach, and one has to wonder how safe Cam Ward's job is beyond this season. The Titans remains second-to-last in the odds to win the Super Bowl.
32. Miami Dolphins (+100000) LW: No. 32
Miami was always going to be in rebuilding mode in 2026, and the season-ending injury to De'Von Achane was a death blow to an already shaky offense.
The Dolphins hung around against an undefeated Minnesota team in Week 5, but they do not have enough firepower to compete with any quality team this season. I don't think Miami goes winless, but it would be a shock if this team wasn't in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 draft.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Peter is the associate managing editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, betting and more. He is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.
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