NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 8 (Bet Bears to Upset Seahawks on Monday Night Football)

Week 7 of the NFL season was an unbelievable week for the SI upset picks panel. Three of the four writers nailed their upset bets. Gilberto Manzano correctly predicted the Atlanta Falcons to upset the San Francisco 49ers, Mike Kadlick cashed in on the Miami Dolphins to upset the New York Jets, and yours truly was in on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat the Carolina Panthers.

We move on to Week 8 hoping for another successful performance from our upset bets.

Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer
Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor, Betting
Peter Dewey, Associate Managing Editor, Betting

All odds listed are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Gilberto Manzano Week 8 Upset Pick

Miami Dolphins (+250) vs. New England Patriots

After getting three consecutive upset picks correct, I need to heat check myself. There’s no better way to do that than taking the one-win Dolphins against Drake Maye and the Patriots. Surprisingly, I have plenty of reasons to like this bet. Divisional games are often close, and New England has a long history of struggling in Miami. Also, the Dolphins have plenty of confidence after beating the Jets last week, and this offense is a lot better with rookie wide receiver Caleb Douglas, who contributed two catches for 70 yards and two touchdowns in his first game since sustaining an ankle injury in Week 2. I’m playing with house money, and I’m putting it on the Dolphins.

Peter Dewey Week 8 Upset Pick

Atlanta Falcons (+114) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Falcons may be the most confusing team in the NFL, but I think their best version is the top squad in the NFC South. I’m buying Atlanta as a road underdog against a Tampa Bay team that is 0-4 against the spread at home and potentially overvalued after a Week 7 rout of the Carolina Panthers.

Baker Mayfield (thumb) wasn’t asked to do much, but the Bucs beat up a Carolina defense that has allowed the most yards per carry in the NFL. That won’t be the case against Atlanta, which is No. 4 in EPA/Rush and 12th in opponent yards per play in 2026. Tampa Bay has been great defensively as well (third in EPA/Play, seventh in yards per play), but the offensive upside is capped with Mayfield and Emeka Egbuka banged up.

Plus, this Falcons offense has been much better with Michael Penix Jr. under center over the last few weeks. The Falcons are 3-2 when Penix starts, and I love this price against a Tampa Bay team with clear flaws and a quarterback at less than 100 percent.

Iain MacMillan Week 8 Upset Pick

Chicago Bears (+140) vs. Seattle Seahawks

I'm ready to believe in the Chicago Bears. Ben Johnson is clearly the real deal as head coach, and Caleb Williams has improved significantly since last season. Last season, he ranked 39th out of 45 starting quarterbacks in completion percentage over expected. This season, he ranks first at +9.0%.

The Bears' defense has also been better than people expected this season, ranking fourth in the NFL in opponent success rate.

I still have some concerns surrounding the Seattle offense. It did enough to beat the Chiefs last week, but their running game is still weak, and Sam Darnold hasn't been as efficient as he was a year ago.

I'll take the Bears as my upset pick of the week.

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