North Texas vs. Tulsa Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 5

Week 5 of the 2026 college football season will begin on Thursday night with a duo of games, including an American Conference showdown between North Texas and Tulsa.

North Texas is 2-2 coming into this game, while Tulsa sits at 3-1, but neither team has played a conference opponent so far this season.

North Texas finished as the American Conference runner-up a season ago, finishing 12-2 in the season but falling to Tulane in the Conference Championship Game. They'll look to take things one step further this season. Meanwhile, Tulsa looks like it's going to improve significantly after a rough 4-8 2025 campaign.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this Week 5 showdown.

North Texas vs. Tulsa Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

North Texas +1 (-108)
Tulsa -1 (-110)

Moneyline

North Texas -102
Tulsa -118

Total

OVER 57.5 (-110)
UNDER 57.5 (-108)

North Texas vs. Tulsa How to Watch

Date: Thursday, October 1
Time: 9:00 ET
Venue: H.A. Chapman Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
North Texas record: 2-2
Tulsa record: 3-1

North Texas vs. Tulsa Betting Trends

North Texas is 4-2 against the spread in the last six meetings between these two teams
The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these two teams
North Texas is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 games
The OVER is 7-3 in North Texas's last 10 games
Tulsa is 6-4 against the spread in its last 10 games
The UNDER is 7-3 in Tulsa's last 10 games

North Texas vs. Tulsa Key Player to Watch

Tayven Jackson, QB - North Texas Mean Green

Tayven Jackson has gotten off to a hot start for North Texas this season. He has completed 74.2% of his passes for 1,187 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions. He has also added 55 yards and a touchdown on the ground.

North Texas leans heavily on its passing game, with 52.49% of its plays being passes. Tulsa will have to find a way to slow down Jackson if the Golden Hurricanes want to get the win.

North Texas vs. Tulsa Prediction and Best Bet

The biggest question in any North Texas game is whether or not the opposing offense can keep pace with the high-powered Mean Green's offensive attack. North Texas ranks fifth in the country in adjusted EPA per play and third in offensive success rate. Any game could end like their game against Texas State, when they lost 49-35. Their offense could also overwhelm the opponent, as it did against UNLV when they won 44-6.

I don't think the Tulsa offense can keep pace, even though they're facing a poor North Texas defense. The Golden Hurricanes rank just 113th in adjusted EPA per play and 90th in offensive success rate.

That's enough for me to back North Texas as a slight road underdog.

Pick: North Texas -102 via BetMGM

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