Notre Dame vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 4

CJ Carr and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish look to keep their undefeated 2026 season going in Week 4, as they’ll hit the road to play the Purdue Boilermakers.

Purdue has dropped back-to-back games to Wake Forest (in double overtime) and UCLA, and it’s set as nearly a four-touchdown underdog at home in Week 4.

Notre Dame has covered the spread in two of its three wins, but it won by just 17 points in Week 3 against the Michigan State Spartans. Still, Marcus Freeman’s group ranks in the top five in net adjusted EPA/Play on both sides of the ball and is No. 3 in the country in EPA/Play on offense.

That’s going to be an issue for a Purdue team that has allowed 90 points over the last two weeks and is outside the top-100 in EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush.

After Carr failed to throw a touchdown against Michigan State, the Heisman hopeful could be in line for a big game on Saturday afternoon.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Week 4 showdown.

Notre Dame vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Notre Dame -27.5 (-118)
Purdue +27.5 (-102)

Moneyline

Notre Dame: -4000
Purdue: +1600

Total

57.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Notre Dame vs. Purdue How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
Time: 2:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Ross-Ade Stadium
How to Watch (TV): Peacock
Notre Dame record: 3-0
Purdue record: 1-2

Notre Dame vs. Purdue Key Player to Watch

CJ Carr, Quarterback, Notre Dame

Carr has taken a step back in the Heisman race after entering the 2026 season as the favorite in this market.

He’s played pretty well for the Fighting Irish completing 72.6 percent of his passes for 726 yards, six scores and no interceptions. He also has added one score on the ground. Despite that, Carr has fallen well behind Trinidad Chambliss and Darian Mensah (the top choices in the Heisman odds) through three games.

Carr has a chance to put up some big numbers against a Purdue defense that allowed 52 points to UCLA in Week 3. The Boilermakers are 128th in the country in defensive success rate and EPA/Pass while sitting at 111th in the country in EPA/Rush.

This should be a big-time road win for Carr and Co. on Saturday.

Notre Dame vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

Notre Dame has already covered the spread in two games this season, and it should move the ball with ease against a Purdue defense that is one of the worst in the country through three weeks.

Carr and the Fighting Irish have more offensive talent than UCLA, which easily hung 52 points on Purdue in Week 3.

The Boilermakers haven’t exactly lit the world on fire on offense either, ranking 113th in the country in EPA/Pass and 96th in EPA/Rush. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has allowed 13, 0 and 10 points in three games.

I think the Boilermakers are facing an uphill battle to reach 20 points, and the Fighting Irish have the offense (third in EPA/Play, fourth in passing success rate) to put up points in a hurry in this matchup.

I’ll lay this price with Freeman’s group, especially since I believe Purdue is a much weaker team than Michigan State.

Pick: Notre Dame -27.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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