Nuggets vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, Dec. 29

Can the Nuggets move to 13-4 on the road?

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is a great prop target on Monday. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Nikola Jokic is on an all-time tear right now, putting up 56 points, 16 rebounds and 15 assists in a Christmas win over the Minnesota Timberwolves before dropping 34 points, 21 rebounds and 12 assists in a loss to the Orlando Magic on Saturday.

Now, he and the Nuggets are road favorites on Monday night against the Miami Heat, who are down Tyler Herro and have dropped seven of their last 10 games. Miami is still in the mix for a playoff spot in a weak Eastern Conference, but this is a major step up in class against a title contender.

Denver has been without three starters – Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson and Christian Braun – but Jokic and Jamal Murray are still good enough for this team to compete on a nightly basis.

Can Denver pick up a road win – it’s 12-4 on the road this season – in Miami?

Let’s jump into the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for this rematch from the 2023 NBA Finals. 

Nuggets vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Nuggets -2.5 (-105)
• Heat +2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Nuggets: -135
• Heat: +114

Total

• 245.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Nuggets vs. Heat How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Dec. 29
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kaseya Center
• How to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network (Local), Altitude
• Nuggets record: 22-9
• Heat record: 17-15

Nuggets vs. Heat Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

• Tamar Bates – out
• Cam Johnson – out
• Aaron Gordon – out
• Christian Braun – out

Heat Injury Report

• Tyler Herro – out
• Bam Adebayo – probable
• Vladislav Goldin – out
• Terry Rozier – out
• Jahmir Young – out
• Kasparas Jakucionis – available
• Keshad Johnson – available
• Pelle Larsson – available
• Kel’el Ware – available
• Nikola Jovic – available

Nuggets vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Nikola Jokic OVER 10.5 Assists (-135)

In today’s best NBA props for SI Betting, I broke down why Jokic is a great prop target in this game: 

Nikola Jokic has been absolutely insane in the month of December, averaging 31.4 points, 12.3 rebounds and 11.3 assists per game, carrying Denver even with three starters out of the lineup.

The MVP candidate now takes on a Miami team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in opponent assists per game and is No. 1 in pace – a perfect opportunity for Jokic to rack up a huge offensive stat line.

This season, Jokic is averaging 11.1 assists on 18.1 potential assists per game, clearing this line in each of his last four contests.

I love getting him at this price to simply hit his season average in assists on Monday. 

Nuggets vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Denver should win this game outright: 

Denver is down three starters (Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson and Christian Braun), but I still like the Nuggets to win as small favorites on the road in Miami.

Denver has been a great road team this season, going 12-4, and Miami has won just three of its last 10 games. Plus, Tyler Herro is out of the lineup for the Heat, who have slipped to 17th in the NBA in offensive rating this season.

Now, they’re taking on the No. 1 offense in the league, and Nikola Jokic has been on an absolute heater this month, averaging 31.4 points, 12.3 rebounds and 11.3 assists per game. 

The Nuggets have the third-best net rating in the NBA while Miami has a net rating of -3.0 over its last 10 games. I’ll gladly take the Nuggets to win outright with the Heat looking more and more like a fringe top-six team in the East. 

Pick: Nuggets Moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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