Orioles vs. Twins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 10

Both the Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins are in the mix for the third and final wild card spot in the American League heading into Monday’s series opener at Target Field.

Back-to-back losses over the weekend dropped the Twins to 1.5 games back of the Texas Rangers for the final spot while the O’s are two games back after winning five of their last 10.

Both of these teams are favored to miss the postseason in the odds at the best betting sites, though the Twins are still in the mix to win the AL Central at this point in the regular season.

These teams made a deal at the trade deadline that sent starting pitcher Dean Kremer from Baltimore to Minnesota, and he’ll make his second start in a Twins uniform – and first against his former team – on Monday night.

Kremer enters this outing with a 5.93 ERA in eight starts, and he’s looking to turn that around over the final month-plus of the regular season. Baltimore will counter with lefty Trevor Rogers, who has really come on as of late, posting a 2.28 ERA since June 1 (11 starts).

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Monday’s series opener.

Orioles vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Orioles -1.5 (+144)
Twins +1.5 (-175)

Moneyline

Orioles: -111
Twins: +103

Total

8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Orioles vs. Twins Probable Pitchers

Baltimore: Trevor Rogers (7-7, 4.20 ERA)
Minnesota: Dean Kremer (1-4, 5.93 ERA)

Orioles vs. Twins How to Watch

Date: Monday, Aug. 10
Time: 7:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Field
How to Watch (TV): MASN, Twins.TV
Orioles record: 57-61
Twins record: 58-61

Orioles vs. Twins Best MLB Prop Bets

Orioles Best MLB Prop Bet

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+329)

Can Pete Alonso take a former teammate deep? Dean Kremer was traded from Baltimore to Minnesota at the deadline, and he’s struggled with the long ball this season. I’m buying Alonso to add to his major home run total in this matchup:

The Baltimore Orioles are taking on one of their former teammates, as Dean Kremer was dealt to the Minnesota Twins at the deadline and will make his second start with the franchise on Monday night.

Kremer has appeared in eight games this season, posting a 5.93 ERA and allowing a whopping 12 home runs. The former Oriole only allowed one run in his debut with the Twins, but I still think he’s a fade candidate on Monday night.

Enter Pete Alonso.

The O’s haven’t gotten a ton of great seasons out of offensive players in 2026, but Alonso has lived up to the deal he signed in the offseason, homering 25 times while posting a .818 OPS.

The star first baseman has three home runs over his last 12 games, and he ended up with a .951 OPS last week (six games) while homering twice.

Alonso has fared well against right-handed pitching in 2026, posting a .260 batting average with 19 of his 25 home runs. He’s a pretty solid value at +329 against the home-run prone Kremer, especially since the Twins are in the bottom five in MLB in bullpen ERA this season.

Orioles vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Rogers got off to a slow start in the 2026 season, but he’s turned things around over the last two months, showing why he was a fringe Cy Young candidate in 2025.

The left-hander has led the O’s to an 8-3 record in his last 11 starts, posting a 2.28 ERA, a 2.50 Fielding Independent Pitching and moving his expected ERA for the season to 3.76 (63rd percentile).

Rogers has given up more than three earned runs in just one outing since the start of June.

Kremer is coming off a solid debut in Minnesota – five innings, one run – but the O’s know him better than any team in MLB after he spent multiple seasons with the franchise. Kremer has allowed four or more runs in four of his eight appearances in 2026, and he ranks in just the 31st percentile in expected ERA.

Baltimore also may have a slightly better offense than the Twins, ranking 10th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) this season while Minnesota clocks in at No. 13.

Since Rogers has pitched so well as of late, I think the O’s are a worthwhile bet as small road favorites on Monday.

Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-111 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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