Orioles vs. Twins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, Aug. 12

The Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins have split the first two games of their series this week, setting up a rubber match on Wednesday afternoon.

Baltimore picked up a 5-2 win on the road on Aug. 11, putting it just two games back of the Texas Rangers for the final wild card spot in the American League. The Twins (1.5 games back of Texas) are now a full game behind the Detroit Tigers, who have won three games in a row and are making a serious push for the postseason.

Both of these teams remain under .500 in the 2026 season, so it’s hard to get excited about either as a playoff squad. Oddsmakers also view them as very even opponents, putting Game 3 of this series as a pick’em in the latest odds.

Baltimore has right-hander Shane Baz (3.76 ERA) on the mound on Wednesday against Twins youngster Zebby Matthews, who has struggled a bit in 2026, posting a 5.23 ERA.

Here’s a look at the latest odds from the best betting sites, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this battle between two AL wild card contenders.

Orioles vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Orioles -1.5 (+153)
Twins +1.5 (-186)

Moneyline

Orioles: -102
Twins: -105

Total

9 (Over -102/Under -118)

Orioles vs. Twins Probable Pitchers

Baltimore: Shane Baz (4-11, 3.76 ERA)
Minnesota: Zebby Matthews (5-8, 5.23 ERA)

Orioles vs. Twins How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Aug. 12
Time: 1:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Field
How to Watch (TV): MASN, Twins.TV
Orioles record: 58-62
Twins record: 59-62

Orioles vs. Twins Best MLB Prop Bets

Twins Best MLB Prop Bet

Zebby Matthew OVER 2.5 Walks Allowed (+150)

I’m going to take a little plus-money prop in this afternoon matchup, as Matthews has really struggled on the mound in the last month. Since July 1, he has a 7.28 ERA, allowing 16 walks in 29.2 innings of work.

According to Statcast, Matthews ranks in the 61st percentile in walk percentage, but he’s allowed at least two free passes in six consecutive starts and nine of his 15 outings overall.

Baltimore is third in MLB in walks drawn this season, so this is a tough matchup for Matthews if his control issues persist. The righty doesn’t generate a lot of swings and misses (28th percentile in whiff percentage) and he ranks in the 22nd percentile in chase percentage.

I love getting +150 odds for him to allow three or more walks this afternoon.

Orioles vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

It’s pretty shocking that Baltimore is just 6-17 when Baz is on the mound this season, as the right-hander has really been one of their better pitchers since June 1.

Over his last 12 starts, Baz has a 3.13 ERA and a 2.71 FIP, and he’s lowered his expected ERA this season to 4.14 in the process. Yet, the O’s have only won three of those 12 games.

So, can we trust them on Wednesday afternoon?

I’m going to take a shot and bet on Baltimore to win this series finale with Matthews on the mound for the Twins. This season, Minnesota has won seven of Matthews’ 15 outings, but he’s allowed at least three runs in eight of them and has a 7.28 ERA in six starts since July 1.

Somehow, the Twins are 3-3 in those games.

This season, these teams are very equal offensively, ranking ninth (Baltimore) and 10th (Minnesota) in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). The Twins have a slightly better OPS and have scored more runs in 2026, but I wouldn’t give them a huge edge in this game, especially with All-Star Byron Buxton (hip) on the injured list.

Plus, Minnesota has the fifth-worst bullpen ERA in baseball this season.

If Matthews continues to struggle on the mound, I think we’re getting a pretty favorable price for Baz and the O’s, especially since Baz has been pretty solid for the past two months.

Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-102 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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