Packers vs. Buccaneers Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 4

Two NFC teams in desperate need of a win face off in Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, as the Green Bay Packers hit the road to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Green Bay dropped to 1-2 with a bad loss at home to the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night in Week 3, and it’s facing an uphill battle to make the playoffs in a tough NFC North that has the Minnesota Vikings at 3-0 and the Detroit Lions at 2-1.

But, the Pack are favored on the road in Week 4 against a winless Tampa Bay team.

Now, the Bucs are still in play for the postseason since they’re just a game out of first place in the terrible NFC South, though things are going to be tough in the coming weeks.

Baker Mayfield dislocated his thumb in Week 3 against the Minnesota Vikings, and head coach Todd Bowles said he’s set to miss three weeks. That means rookie Jalon Daniels is in line to start in this Week 4 matchup.

Tampa Bay has already lost two games at home, and it’s in danger of falling to 0-4 against this Packers team that may need this win to stay alive in the NFC North.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player to watch, betting trends and my prediction for this Week 4 showdown.

Packers vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Packers -3.5 (-115)
Bucs +3.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Packers: -198
Bucs: +164

Total

39.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Packers vs. Buccaneers How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Oct. 4
Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Raymond James Stadium
How to Watch (TV): FOX
Packers record: 1-2
Bucs record: 0-3

Packers vs. Buccaneers Injury Reports

Packers Injury Report

Josh Jacobs – Commissioner’s Exempt List
Edgerrin Cooper – questionable
Jayden Reed – questionable
Jacob Monk – questionable
Warren Brinson – questionable
Aaron Banks – questionable
Anthony Campbell – questionable

Bucs Injury Report

Baker Mayfield – out
Jalen McMillan – questionable
Rueben Bain Jr. – questionable
Josiah Trotter – questionable

Packers vs. Buccaneers Betting Trends

The Packers are 0-3 against the spread in the 2026 season.
Green Bay is 0-3 against the spread when favored in 2026.
The Packers are 0-2 against the spread on the road this season.
The Bucs are 0-3 against the spread this season.
Tampa Bay is 0-1 against the spread as an underdog in 2026.
The OVER is 2-1 in the Bucs’ games this season.
The OVER is 2-1 in the Packers’ games this season.

Packers vs. Buccaneers Key Player to Watch

Jordan Love, Quarterback, Green Bay Packers

The Packers have been a playoff team multiple times in Jordan Love’s tenure with the team, but he needs to take another step in 2026 with his offense struggling.

Without Josh Jacobs, the Packers are averaging a league-worst 3.0 yards per carry, ranking dead last in EPA/Rush. They’re also in the bottom 10 in the league in both EPA/Play (25th) and success rate (28th).

Love has thrown for 844 yards, six scores and two picks through three weeks, but he’s completing just 52.4 percent of his passes. That simply isn’t good enough when the Packers aren’t able to run the ball at a solid clip.

The Tampa Bay defense is sixth in the league in EPA/Play and 12th in EPA/Pass, so this won’t be an easy game for Love to turn Green Bay’s season around.

Packers vs. Buccaneers Prediction and Pick

The Buccaneers have the worst offense in the NFL in EPA/Play through three weeks, and now they’re going to send an undrafted rookie quarterback out for his first NFL start.

I can't imagine the offense getting better, even though Green Bay is just 22nd in the NFL in EPA/Play and struggled mightily against the Atlanta offense in Week 3.

Daniels doesn’t have any real NFL tape to go off of, and the Bucs have struggled scoring the ball with Mayfield at the controls, putting up less than 20 points in back-to-back games.

The Packers haven’t been any better on offense, scoring 22, 20 and 14 points while ranking 28th in the league in EPA/Play.

Since the Tampa Bay defense (sixth in EPA/Play, eighth in yards per play allowed) has actually been solid in 2026, I think the UNDER is a great bet in this matchup.

I can’t bet on Daniels in his first career start, and laying more than a field goal with the Packers is a no-go since they’ve failed to cover in every game in 2026. I’d much rather fade these two offenses with how they’ve performed through three weeks.

Pick: UNDER 39.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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