Padres vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for NLDS Game 1

Jackson Merrill and the Padres are underdogs in Milwaukee.

Jackson Merrill and the Padres are underdogs in Milwaukee. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Milwaukee Brewers face off against the San Diego Padres in the National League Division Series starting on Saturday night.

San Diego got revenge on the Cubs with a two-game sweep at home to advance to the NLDS, while the Brewers earned a bye with a major-league-best 103-59 record in the regular season.

Milwaukee is back in the postseason for the fourth straight year, but the Brewers have only won one series in that span. That came last year against the Cubs in the NLDS.

This is the first playoff series between these two teams.

Here are the odds, probable pitchers, and predictions for Padres vs. Brewers Game 1 on Saturday, Oct. 3.

Padres vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Padres +1.5 (-122)
• Brewers -1.5 (+102)

Moneyline

• Padres +178
• Brewers -218

Total

• 7 (Over -109/Under -110)

Padres vs. Brewers Probable Pitchers

• Padres: Robbie Ray (13-8, 3.59 ERA)
• Brewers: Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA)

Robbie Ray finished the season with 3.1 innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers on Sept. 23. He did allow seven hits in that game, though.

Jacob Misiorowski capped off his terrific campaign with 5.1 shutout innings against the Cardinals on Sept. 27. He hasn’t allowed a run in 13.1 innings across his last three starts.

Padres vs. Brewers How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
• Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: American Family Field
• How to Watch (TV): FS1
• Padres record: 91-71 (2-0)
• Brewers record: 103-59 (0-0)

Padres vs. Brewers Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

• Jackson Merrill OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145)

Jackson Merrill stayed hot with four hits, two RBI, and one run scored in the two games against the Cubs. He ended the regular season with a hit in 15 of his final 16 games, going 25 for 66 (.379) with 14 runs scored and 14 RBI in that span.

It’s going to be tough against Misiorowski and the Milwaukee bullpen, but that’s why this line is priced the way it is. I’ll back Merrill to find the box score against the Brewers at -145.

Padres vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

I broke down this pick in SI Betting’s daily MLB best bets column, Walk-Off Wagers:

I’m fairly high on the Brewers this postseason. They haven’t had what it takes in recent years, but they’re loaded with a few arms at the top of the rotation and one of the best bullpens in baseball.

We’ll see Jacob Misiorowski get the ball in Game 1 after a fantastic regular season. The Brewers were terrific themselves, going 103-59 overall and 55-26 at home.

I also just don’t trust Robbie Ray. He has a 5.02 ERA in nine starts with the Padres, and allowed two runs in four innings in his lone outing against the Brewers this year.

I’ll take Milwaukee to open this series with a bang at home.

Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+102)

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