Padres vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for NLDS Game 2

The Milwaukee Brewers picked up a massive win in Game 1 of the NLDS, 3-2, over the San Diego Padres on Saturday night.

The Padres had some awful luck in the loss, as a potential go-ahead home run by Ty France hit a cable on the Milwaukee roof and ended up being an out caught by Jackson Chourio. It’s certainly possible that France’s fly ball would’ve left the yard, which could’ve completely altered this series.

Ty France hits a ball that hits a cable and is caught by Jackson Chourio

The ball hit the cable in fair territory, meaning that it's live and ruled an out.pic.twitter.com/9mSGwZpYy7
— Underdog MLB (@UnderdogMLB) October 4, 2026

Now, the Brewers are up 1-0 in this best-of-five matchup and are favored at home in Game 2.

Rookie Logan Henderson will make his first-ever postseason start after a strong regular season where he posted a 2.47 ERA in 18 outings. The Brewers were 14-4 when he took the mound, but they did lose to the Padres when Henderson allowed three runs across 6.1 innings back on Aug. 10.

The Padres will counter with righty Michael King, who threw seven innings of one-hit ball in a wild-card round win over the Chicago Cubs. King finished the regular season with a 3.21 ERA, but the Padres won just 15 of his 32 outings.

Can he lead San Diego to a win in Game 2 to even this series? King beat Milwaukee in his lone start against the Brew Crew during the regular season.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this NLDS showdown on Sunday afternoon.

Padres vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Padres +1.5 (-197)
Brewers -1.5 (+161)

Moneyline

Padres: +114
Brewers: -137

Total

7 (Over -115/Under -104)

Padres vs. Brewers Probable Pitchers

San Diego: Michael King (1-0, 0.00 ERA in playoffs, 12-10, 3.21 ERA in regular season)
Milwaukee: Logan Henderson (first playoff start, 11-3. 2.47 ERA in regular season)

Padres vs. Brewers How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Oct. 4
Time: 4:00 p.m. EST
Venue: American Family Field
How to Watch (TV): FS1
Series: Milwaukee leads 1-0

Padres vs. Brewers Best MLB Prop Bet

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

Michael King UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-162)

I expect the Padres to go all out to win this game, which means King could have a quick hook if he struggles out of the gate on Sunday.

However, I was impressed with the veteran right-hander’s first start this postseason, as he shut down a Chicago offense that was No. 1 in OPS and No. 6 in batting average during the regular season. The Brewers are also a tough test, as they finished the regular season with the best batting average (.258) in MLB while ranking third in OPS.

Still, King held the Brew Crew to just one run across 5.1 innings in a matchup back in May. He did allow six hits in that game, but the Brewers had just seven total hits in Game 1 of this series.

Kings finished the regular season in the 50th percentile in expected batting average against, but he also was in the 89th percentile in hard-hit percentage. I’ll take a shot on him allowing four or fewer hits, especially if he only goes around five innings in Game 2.

Padres vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Milwaukee has been elite at home in the 2026 season, going 55-26 in the regular season and now 1-0 in the playoffs.

The Brewers’ offense has been the better unit between these two teams this season, and the Padres only mustered two runs on nine hits in Game 1. The France fly ball is certainly a bad break, but San Diego was just 18th in OPS and 15th in runs scored during the regular season despite ranking ninth in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+).

King had an expected ERA in the 33rd percentile in the regular season, and I’m not positive that his gem against the Cubs is replicable against this Milwaukee offense.

Plus, the Brewers won 14 of Henderson’s 18 starts in the regular season while the young righty ranked in the 95th percentile in expected ERA and the 88th percentile in expected BAA.

I’ll trust the Brewers to build on a regular season where they finished with the best record in the National League.

Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-137 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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