Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Drew Rasmussen, Tyler O’Neill)

One of the most exciting ways to bet on Major League Baseball is in the prop market, and on Sunday Aaron Judge and Aaron Nola both cashed picks from our Painting Corners column.

Monday brings some new challenges, and with only a few days of 2025 MLB action under our belt, I’m going to be using a lot of historical data and pitcher vs. hitter data to make some of these prop plays.

On Monday, I’m targeting Drew Rasmussen in his first start and one Baltimore Orioles slugger for the 14-game slate, but those aren’t the only players to watch.

Let’s break down why these players are great prop targets for the final day of March.

Best MLB Prop Bets for Monday, March 31

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tyler Glasnow UNDER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-140)
Drew Rasmussen 5+ Strikeouts (-155)
Tyler O’Neill to Hit a Home Run (+340)
Matt McLain OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-185)

Tyler Glasnow UNDER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-140)

This pick is more of a fade of the Atlanta Braves offense than it is trusting Los Angeles Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow.

Atlanta is 29th in OPS and has been shut out in back-to-back games heading into this matchup with the 5-0 Dodgers. Glasnow finished with a 3.49 ERA and 2.90 FIP last season, and he had eight starts with one or fewer earned runs allowed.

If Glasnow – who dealt with arm issues last season – is eased into the season with a short outing, he could be a steal at this number.

Drew Rasmussen 5+ Strikeouts (-155)

This is one of two picks from today’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – which I shared earlier on Monday:

Tampa Bay Rays starter Drew Rasmussen is back in action after missing most of last season with an injury, but in the time that Rasmussen did pitch, he looked great in 2024.

Last season, Rasmussen posted a 2.83 ERA, 1.35 FIP and struck out 35 batters in 28.2 innings of work. Now, he has a favorable matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are averaging 9.0 strikeouts per game so far in the 2025 season.

Rasmussen is one of my favorite young pitchers to back this season since he’s pitched really well when healthy over the last few seasons.

Tyler O’Neill to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Whenever Baltimore Orioles slugger Tyler O’Neill is facing a left-handed pitcher, he’s a must-bet to go deep.

O’Neill hit a home run on Opening Day, and he has a solid matchup against Boston Red Sox lefty Sean Newcomb.

Last season, Newcomb allowed two home runs in just 10 innings of work for the A’s, which sets up well for O’Neill and the Orioles tonight.

In his career, O’Neill is hitting .270 with a .547 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. He’s homered 32 times in 437 at bats – averaging about one homer per every 13.5 at bats.

Matt McLain OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-185)

Another play from today’s Walk-Off Wagers, Cincinnati Reds youngster Matt McLain is a solid bet to continue his hot start to the season:

Former first-round pick Matt McLain is off to a great start for the Cincinnati Reds, hitting two home runs in his first three games while totaling 10 total bases.

So, all we’re asking him to do in this game is to hit a single, which he has a favorable matchup to get that done. The Reds are facing the Texas Rangers and starter Kumar Rocker, who really struggled in Spring Training.

In 13.0 innings of work this spring, Rocker had a 9.00 ERA and gave up 18 hits. McLain should be able to stay hot in this matchup.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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