Patriots vs. Bears Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 7

Thursday Night Football in Week 7 features a great matchup between two potential playoff teams, as Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears host the New England Patriots.

Both of these teams are out to 4-2 starts, and they picked up big wins on Sunday in Week 6.

Williams (hamstring) returned from a three-game absence, throwing for over 300 yards while the Bears scored 31 points in a win over the Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, Drake Maye and the Patriots won their third game in a row, knocking off the New York Jets in a key AFC East matchup.

New England got off to a slow start, but Maye has looked a lot more like an MVP candidate over the last three weeks, especially in wins over the Buffalo Bills and Las Vegas Raiders.

These teams have the potential to be two of the best offenses in the league, and Thursday’s game will be a nice measuring stick as they look to see where they stand amongst the other contenders in the NFL.

Oddsmakers have set the Bears as 2.5-point favorites at home on Thursday night, and they’re coming off a cover on the road as favorites in Week 5. Can they move to 5-2 against the spread this season?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player to watch, betting trends and my prediction for this primetime matchup.

Patriots vs. Bears Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Patriots +2.5 (-105)
Bears -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Patriots: +124
Bears: -148

Total

49.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Patriots vs. Bears How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Oct. 22
Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
Venue: Soldier Field
How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
Patriots record: 4-2
Bears record: 4-2

Patriots vs. Bears Injury Reports

Patriots Injury Report

Ben Brown – questionable
Alijah Vera-Tucker – questionable
Morgan Moses – questionable
Romeo Doubs – questionable
Carlton Davis III – questionable
Mack Hollins – IR
Mike Onwenu – IR
Greg Van Roten – IR

Bears Injury Report

Jonah Jackson – questionable
Tyrique Stevenson – questionable
Kyle Monangai – questionable
Anthony Johnson – IR
T.J. Edwards – questionable

Patriots vs. Bears Betting Trends

The Patriots are 3-2-1 against the spread this season.
The Bears are 4-2 against the spread this season.
The Bears are 2-1 against the spread at home this season.
The Patriots are 1-1-1 against the spread on the road this season.
The Bears are 2-1 against the spread when Caleb Williams starts this season.
The OVER is 2-1 in Caleb Williams’ starts this season.
The UNDER is 4-2 in the six games for both teams in 2026.

Patriots vs. Bears Key Player to Watch

Caleb Williams, Quarterback, Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams is back, and he was lights out on Sunday against Atlanta.

The former No. 1 overall pick completed 30 of his 36 passes for 305 yards, one score and ran for three yards on four carries. Williams has thrown for 712 yards, three scores and has a pair of rushing touchdowns in three appearances.

He looked pretty healthy after missing three weeks with a hamstring strain, and the Bears’ offense took a massive step forward from where it was in Week 5 when it scored just seven points in a loss to Green Bay.

The New England defense has been one of the better units in the league, but Williams is a tough player to contain in Ben Johnson’s scheme.

Patriots vs. Bears Prediction and Pick

Even though the Bears have played three games without their starting quarterback, they’ve covered the spread four times, including a huge road win to stay above .500 through six weeks.

These teams both have rising offenses with Maye and Williams under center, but there is one thing I can’t look past for the Patriots.

New England is insanely banged up, losing three starting offensive lineman in Week 6 while it already has Greg Van Roten and Mike Onwenu on injured reserve. Even though Chicago isn’t necessarily an elite defense, that’s a major concern on a short week when Maye has struggled with turnovers in 2026.

The Bears enter this week in the top 10 in the league in EPA/Play and success rate on defense, and these teams are pretty equal in EPA/Play on offense even though Williams has missed three games.

In the two matchups where Williams started and finished the game, the Bears have scored 90 points. They should be able to score against this New England defense – especially at home – and I prefer their injury situation on a short week.

Forget the points. I’ll take the Bears to win in Week 7.

Pick: Bears Moneyline (-148 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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