Patriots vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction for AFC Championship Game (Can NE Cover on Road?)

The Denver Broncos outlasted the Buffalo Bills for an overtime win on Saturday, but lost quarterback Bo Nix to an ankle injury. That will loom large heading into the AFC Championship Game against the New England Patriots.

The Patriots made it look relatively easy against the Houston Texans on Sunday, forcing four interceptions and one fumble in their 28-16 victory at home.

With Nix on the shelf, the Broncos are home underdogs at the best betting sites for this matchup.

This season, the SI Betting team is sharing a final score prediction for every game as a fun way to help bettors decide on spread and total bets.

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s where I’m leaning for the AFC Championship Game.

Patriots vs. Broncos Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Patriots -5.5 (-105)
Broncos +5.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Patriots: -258
Broncos: +210

Total

42.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

The spread hasn’t moved since the odds opened for this one, at least at DraftKings. However, the total has gone up from 40.5 to 42.5.

Can the Patriots cover as road favorites in Denver?

Patriots vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction

SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan broke down this game in his Road to Super Bowl 60 column:

There are plenty of smart people out there who think setting the Patriots as 5-point favorites is too big a reaction to the Bo Nix injury news. A lot of Nix's metrics didn't pop off the page, so is a 7-point swing justified with a capable Jarrett Stidham playing instead? I think it is, but it's not just because of the change at quarterback. There is something to be said about Nix's ability to be clutch and come up with plays in big moments, something Stidham doesn't have, but I'm backing New England more so because of what I've seen from the Patriots lately.

The New England defense may have figured something out. The argument against them heading into the postseason was that their defense was one of the worst in the NFL, but they completely shut down both the Chargers and Texans. Not only keeping them from scoring, but finding ways to force turnovers. In fact, they've allowed just 3.4 yards per carry in their past three games, the lowest in the NFL.

We already know the Patriots have a significant advantage offensively, and even moreso with Nix out, but if the New England defense can continue its momentum, there's a chance the Patriots run away with this one.

Pick: Patriots -5 (-110) via Caesars

I would have probably gone with the Broncos if Nix was healthy, but Stidham simply doesn’t inspire much confidence. There is still a chance that Denver’s defense and running game can come up big at home to advance to the Super Bowl, but New England poses a really tough test.

The Patriots won their first two playoff games at home, but going on the road hasn’t been a problem for them this season. They went 8-0 on the road in the regular season, including upset victories in Miami, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and Baltimore.

Drake Maye will lead the Pats back to the Super Bowl, where a formidable NFC West foe will meet them.

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 27, Broncos 17

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Unlock $200 in bonus bets — all without a promo code for DraftKings. Sign up and place a $5 bet. If you win, you will receive $300 in bonus bets instantly.