PGA Championship Score Predictions: Winning Total Pick at Aronimink

The best golfers in the world have arrived in Pennsylvania, ready to tee it up at Aronimink Golf Club for this week's PGA Championship.

You can find my best bets to win this week's major in my betting preview, but in this article, I'm going to take things a step further. Not only am I going to predict the winning score, but I'm going to predict the final score for the top 10 golfers on the odds list.

Full disclosure, I went 0-10 predicting final scores for the Masters, so there's no where to go but up.

PGA Championship Score Predictions

All odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook

PGA Championship winning score: -16

One of my favorite bets of the week is the winning score being UNDER 267.5, which is -13 or lower.

LOVE the PGA Championship Winning Score UNDER 267.5 (+102).
— Iain MacMillan (@IainMacBets) May 12, 2026

Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship at this course in 2018 with a winning score of -20. Yes, this year's set-up will likely be more difficult with it being a major tournament, but I'm not sure how much they can do to this course to truly make it a significantly tougher test than it was eight years ago.

There is little challenge off the tee at this course, and most of the elite golfers will be able to drive it past the bunkers that are supposed to be in play. The best of the best will post some low scores this week.

Scottie Scheffler (+385) score prediction: -16

I think Scottie Scheffler is going to repeat as the winner of the PGA Championship. He has all the tools he needs to post a low score here, and his slump in iron play a couple of months ago is well in the rear-view mirror after three-straight runner-up finishes. It's time for him to get his second win of the 2026 season.

Rory McIlroy (+910) score prediction: -14

Rory McIlroy and Scheffler finished first and second at the Masters, but that was more of a back-door push by Scheffler as opposed to an actual head-to-head duel. We golf fans are desperate for a final round pairing of the two best golfers in the world at a major, and I think we're going to get that this week. McIlroy makes a run at it, but finishes two strokes short of Scheffler.

Jon Rahm (+1400) score prediction: -6

Jon Rahm can rack up wins on LIV all he wants, but until he proves he can truly contend at a major, I'm going to stay away from him. He has just one top-five finish at a major since winning the 2023 Masters. If he can contend this week, I'll correct my score prediction for next month's U.S. Open, but that's a very real "if".

Cameron Young (+1650) score prediction: -12

Cameron Young has all the tools to win a major, and now that he won at the Players Championship, his mental game is also good enough to win a big one. I think his game is better suited for the U.S. Open, so I'm going to predict that he's going to fall short this week.

Bryson DeChambeau (+1850) score prediction: Missed Cut

I'm out on Bryson DeChambeau. He missed the cut at the Masters, and his recent comments about returning to the PGA Tour make me think he's more concerned about growing his YouTube channel than he is about preparing for a major tournament. On top of all that, his iron play has been less-than-stellar for a year now. I wouldn't be shocked if he misses another cut this week.

Xander Schauffele (+1950) score prediction: -10

I truly thought Xander Schauffele would establish himself as a consistently top-three golfer in the world after winning two majors in 2024, but his play has regressed since then. He's still going to post a solid score, and I'd be surprised if he finishes outside the top 20, but his form isn't good enough for me to think he's going to truly contend this week.

Ludvig Aberg (+2000) score prediction: -8

I don't think Ludvig Aberg has enough battle scars that a golfer needs to win a major tournament. His inability to close out the Players Championship this year was his first big scar, but he still needs to be in the mix in a few top events before I have enough faith in him being able to close one out.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2300) score prediction: -3

Don't be fooled by Matt Fitzpatrick's three wins this season. One win has been at a non-signature event, one was at a team event with one of the weakest fields of the season, and one was the RBC Heritage, an event that's hosted at his favorite course, where he already won two years ago. His T52 finish at the Trust Championship last week should be a significant concern this week.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2700) score prediction: -9

Tommy Fleetwood will likely get another yellow square on his Wikipedia page for a top 10 at a major, but I think it's been proven now that a win at the 30-man field at the Tour Championship has not translated to him becoming a true winner. He'll be a non-factor this weekend.

Brooks Koepka (+3700) score prediction: -5

Brooks Koepka is in the midst of a redemption arc, but this week's PGA Championship won't be the conclusion of it. He's still working on his game to get it back to peak form, and a T11 finish at last week's alternate-field event isn't a strong enough sign for me that he's going to contend this week.

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