Phillies vs. Braves Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for NL Wild Card Game 2

Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Round between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves wasn’t short on drama.

The NL East rivals kicked off the MLB playoff action Tuesday with a 2 p.m. EST matchup (they’ll play at the same time on Wednesday), and Austin Riley hit a go-ahead three-run homer in the bottom of the eighth inning to lift the Braves to a win.

AUSTIN RILEY
GO-AHEAD THREE-RUN HOMER
ATLANTA IS GOING WILD 🤯 pic.twitter.com/XrPQnazvVO
— MLB (@MLB) September 29, 2026

The Phillies didn’t set themselves up in a great spot entering this series, as they were forced to use ace Zack Wheeler on Sunday simply to get into the playoffs. So, the Braves have an inherent advantage on the mound over this three-game set, even if that isn’t the case in Game 2.

Two-time All-Star Cristopher Sanchez (2.91 ERA) is on the mound on Wednesday for Philadelphia against Atlanta’s Tyler Mahle (3.99 ERA). Oddsmakers have set the Phils as road favorites in this matchup as they look to force a winner-take-all Game 3 on Thursday.

Sanchez made two starts against Atlanta this season, allowing three runs in both (which were also Philly losses). He led the Phils to a 23-10 record in his 33 outings, but he did have a shaky September, posting a 51.2 ERA in five starts.

Meanwhile, Mahle allowed five runs in his final start of the regular season, but he was pretty much lights out for Atlanta after being acquired at the trade deadline in a deal with the San Francisco Giants.

The right-hander had a 1.99 ERA across nine outings, leading the Braves to a 6-3 record. That included two wins over the Phillies, who he combined for 13.0 innings against while allowing just one earned run.

Can Sanchez keep the Phils’ season alive on Wednesday? Or, will the Braves advance to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS?

Here’s a look at the latest odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for Game 2 of this wild card matchup.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Phillies -1.5 (+152)
Braves +1.5 (-185)

Moneyline

Phillies: -114
Braves: -106

Total

7 (Over -114/Under -106)

Phillies vs. Braves Probable Pitchers

Philadelphia: Cristopher Sanchez (18-7, 2.91 ERA)
Atlanta: Tyler Mahle (7-10, 3.99 ERA)

Phillies vs. Braves How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Sept. 30
Time: 2:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Truist Park
How to Watch (TV): NBC
Series: Atlanta leads 1-0

Phillies vs. Braves Best MLB Prop Bets

Braves Best MLB Prop Bet

Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+534)

Braves first baseman Matt Olson did not have a strong Game 1, going 0-for-4 with a pair of strikeouts, but he did close the regular season strong, hitting .306 with three home runs and an .831 OPS over the final two weeks (13 games).

Olson homered 41 times during the regular season, and I don’t mind him at this price (+534) to have a big postseason moment on Wednesday.

In his career against Sanchez, Olson is 6-for-23 with two doubles, two homers and a .900 OPS. Those are pretty good numbers when facing an elite left-handed starter, and Sanchez hasn’t exactly been immune to the long ball in 2026.

The two-time All-Star allowed 19 home runs in 33 starts, including five long balls over his final four starts of the regular season. Sanchez had a 5.12 ERA in September, so I don’t hate the idea of fading him in Game 2.

As for Olson, he actually posted a better batting average and OPS against lefties in the regular season, hitting 16 of his 41 home runs against them. I think he’s undervalued at this price with the Braves looking to end this series.

Phillies vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

The Braves survived Game 1 with Riley’s heroics, and I think they’re in a great spot to take this series on Wednesday afternoon.

Mahle was terrific for the Braves after being acquired at the deadline, allowing two or fewer earned runs in eight of his nine outings. He lowered his ERA from 4.83 to 3.99 and his expected ERA fell to 3.95.

Meanwhile, Sanchez’s worst month of the season came in September, and the southpaw hasn’t exactly shut down the Braves in his starts against them. Atlanta has been able to come away with six runs (three earned) against the two-time All-Star, and Sanchez finished the regular season with an expected ERA for 3.39 and an expected batting average against in the 55th percentile.

While the Phillies are favored in this game, I have a hard time betting on them after they backed into the playoffs and had to use Wheeler to secure a spot.

Atlanta didn’t have to tax its bullpen too much on Tuesday with Chris Sale going 6.1 innings, and I’m not sold on the Phillies having a huge advantage with Sanchez on the mound. The Braves were 23 games over .500 at home in the regular season, and I think they add to that mark in Game 2.

Pick: Braves Moneyline (-106 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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