Phillies vs. Cardinals Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, Aug. 12

The Philadelphia Phillies are in a three-way tie for the No. 2 wild card spot in the National League, as a pair of NL West teams – Arizona and San Diego – are right there with them.

After a slow start to the 2026 season, the Phillies have turned things around to get back in the playoff mix, and ace Zack Wheeler (2.69 ERA) has been a big reason why. The Phillies have won 14 of Wheeler’s 19 starts, and they are hoping to keep that going against the St. Louis Cardinals in Wednesday afternoon’s series finale.

Wheeler is coming off a rough outing, allowing seven hits and five walks in a one-run loss to the Toronto Blue Jays, but he and the Phillies remain favored on Wednesday afternoon.

The Cardinals (60-60 this season) will counter with Kyle Leahy (3.45 ERA) on the mound, and they’re looking to stay within striking distance of a wild card spot. The Cards are 3.5 games behind the Phillies in the standings, but they’ve won six of their last 10 matchups.

Can they take this series finale to gain some more ground?

Let’s jump right into the odds, a prop bet to consider and my prediction as these two National League teams battle for playoff positioning.

Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Phillies -1.5 (+109)
Cardinals +1.5 (-131)

Moneyline

Phillies: -158
Cardinals: +147

Total

8 (Over -107/Under -112)

Phillies vs. Cardinals Probable Pitchers

Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler (10-3, 2.69 ERA)
St. Louis: Kyle Leahy (8-4, 3.45 ERA)

Phillies vs. Cardinals How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Aug. 12
Time: 2:15 p.m. EST
Venue: Busch Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN Unlimited, NBC Sports Philadelphia, Cardinals.TV
Phillies record: 64-57
Cardinals record: 60-60

Phillies vs. Cardinals Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

Kyle Schwarber OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+119)

Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber has been red hot as of late, hitting. 375 with two doubles, two home runs and a 1.254 OPS over the last week of action.

Schwarber has 35 home runs this season and his OPS currently sits at .910. The Phillies slugger has nine hits over his last seven games, making him an intriguing bet to clear 1.5 total bases against Leahy.

The Cardinals right-hander has some shaky advanced numbers this season, ranking in the eight percentile in expected BAA, the 10th percentile in barrel percentage and the second percentile in hard-hit percentage.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Schwarber stays hot against him and this St. Louis bullpen, which has a 4.32 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP this season.

Phillies vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

On the surface, it looks like this is a pretty even pitching matchup, but the advanced numbers tell us a totally different story:

Zack Wheeler vs. Kyle Leahy Advanced Stats

Expected ERA

Wheeler: 2.72 (95th percentile)
Leahy: 5.22 (13th percentile)

Expected Batting Average Against

Wheeler: .204 (89th percentile)
Leahy: .278 (8th percentile)

Strikeout Percentage

Wheeler: 30.6% (93rd percentile)
Leahy: 20.7% (36th percentile)

Hard-Hit Percentage

Wheeler: 34.9% (75th percentile)
Leahy: 48.5% (2nd percentile)

Barrel Percentage

Wheeler: 6.0% (75th percentile)
Leahy: 10.7% (10th percentile)

There’s no doubt that Wheeler is the more accomplished pitcher, and he’s been much better this season despite Leahy’s solid record and actual ERA. The Cardinals are still just 10-12 when Leahy takes the mound, going 3-3 over his last six starts despite the righty posting a 1.74 ERA.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 in MLB in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), so I’ll gladly back Wheeler to add to his impressive 2026 season. The Phils are 14-5 when the star right-hander is on the mound.

Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-158 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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